The Usual Excess-Burden Approximation Usually Doesn't Come Close

This paper shows that the usual excess-burden triangle' formula performs poorly when used to assess the excess burden from taxes on intermediate inputs or consumer goods, and derives a practical alternative to this formula. We use an analytically tractable general equilibrium model to reveal how interactions with pre-existing taxes in other markets critically affect the excess burden of new taxes on intermediate inputs or consumer goods. The usual excess-burden formula ignores these interactions, and consequently yields highly inaccurate assessments of excess burden. Prior economic theory implicitly acknowledges the relevance of general-equilibrium interactions to excess burden, but does not indicate which interactions are most important or reveal the fundamental (first-order) contribution of these interactions. Moreover, prior studies do not offer a practical alternative to the usual excess-burden approximation. This paper helps fill the gap between theory and practice. First, it shows analytically that the importance of the interaction with a given pre-existing tax is roughly proportional to the amount of revenue raised by that tax. Second, the paper derives a practical alternative formula for approximating the excess burden from a commodity tax. Finally, it performs numerical simulations to illustrate the significance of adopting our alternative to the usual approximation formula. For realistic parameter values and a wide range of assumed rates for prior taxes, the usual formula captures less than half of the excess burden of taxes on commodities. When the rate of the new tax is small,' this formula captures less than five percent of the true excess burden. In contrast, the alternative approximation formula derived here yields estimates that are consistently within five percent of the actual excess burden.

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs

W49A North - Global or Local or No Collapse?

We attempt to fit observations with 5" resolution of the J=2-1 transition of CS in the directions of H II regions A, B, and G of W49A North as well as observations with 20" resolution of the J=2-1, 3-2, 5-4, and 7-6 transitions in the directions of H II regions A and G by using radiative transfer calculations. These calculations predict the intensity profiles resulting from several spherical clouds along the line of sight. We consider three models: global collapse of a very large (5 pc radius) cloud, localized collapse from smaller (1 pc) clouds around individual H II regions, and multiple, static clouds. For all three models we can find combinations of parameters that reproduce the CS profiles reasonably well provided that the component clouds have a core-envelope structure with a temperature gradient. Cores with high temperature and high molecular hydrogen density are needed to match the higher transitions (e.g. J=7-6) observed towards A and G. The lower temperature, low density gas needed to create the inverse P-Cygni profile seen in the CS J=2-1 line (with 5" beam) towards H II region G arises from different components in the 3 models. The infalling envelope of cloud G plus cloud B creates the absorption in global collapse, cloud B is responsible in local collapse, and a separate cloud, G', is needed in the case of many static clouds. The exact nature of the velocity field in the envelopes for the case of local collapse is not important as long as it is in the range of 1 to 5 km/s for a turbulent velocity of about 6 km/s. High resolution observations of the J=1-0 and 5-4 transitions of CS and C34S may distinguish between these three models. Modeling existing observations of HCO+ and C18O does not allow one to distinguish between the three models but does indicate the existence of a bipolar outflow.Comment: 42 pages, 27 figures, accepted for publication in the ApJS August 2004, v153 issu

How Career Identity Shapes the Meaning of Work for Referred Employees

Sociological explanations for why referred employees typically have longer tenures than non-referred employees tend to be either that referred employees enter their jobs possessing a clearer sense of employer expectations or that they often receive support from their referrers while on the job. However, through analysis of work-history interviews conducted with salespersons in Toronto, Canada, I find that the significance of each of these factors for a person's tenure depends on their career plans. For individuals with clear career plans, information mattered but support was less important. Conversely, for individuals with unclear career plans, support mattered but information was less important. I find that this divergence was based on the fact that individuals who had clearer career plans cared more about the fit they had with the tasks they performed in jobs which they were referred into while those with unclear plans tended to be more concerned about their overall fit with the job's culture. I examine this difference in job satisfaction by demonstrating how the combination of information and support respondents had at any given job led them to either support, interrogate, or re-route their career plans differently based on the initial clarity of these plans. Based on these findings, I argue that the role that referrals play in shaping turnover intentions should be nested within individuals' career identities. Doing so prevents researchers from seeing turnover intentions as being solely based on expectations at the time of hire or on connections made, strengthened, or weakened on-the-job and, instead, necessitates a more grounded view of turnover decisions

Doctor Distrust: Pragmatism, Intersectionality, and the Confluence of Expertise and Interests

The idea that only experts can be privy to knowledge about the world has been strongly contested throughout recent history. Using interviews with 39 British seniors tasked to discuss the role of doctors in matters of life and death, I argue that distrust for expert knowledge stems largely from the belief that knowledge is deeply shaped by personal experience. However, such distrust is not absolute as respondents still hold some faith in medical expertise due to their own perceived lack of medical knowledge and experiences with the medical field. As such, I assert that respondents demonstrate ambivalence towards medical expertise due to the confluence of expertise and interests that they find in the role that doctors play in assisting individuals with their health. I connect my findings to the theoretical traditions of American pragmatism and intersectionality to demonstrate how the ambivalence demonstrated by respondents signals their tacit use of a combination of these theories or what I term pragmatic intersectionality

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure and guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. The theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be 4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs

Is B1422+231 a Golden Lens?

B1422+231 is a quadruply-imaged QSO with an exceptionally large lensing contribution from group galaxies other than the main lensing galaxy. We detect diffuse X-rays from the galaxy group in archival Chandra observations; the inferred temperature is consistent with the published velocity dispersion. We then explore the range of possible mass maps that would be consistent with the observed image positions, radio fluxes, and ellipticities. Under plausible but not very restrictive assumptions about the lensing galaxy, predicted time delays involving the faint fourth image are fairly well constrained around 7/h days.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, to appear in the June/03 issue of A

Improved simulation of isoprene oxidation chemistry with the ECHAM5/MESSy chemistry-climate model: lessons from the GABRIEL airborne field campaign

The GABRIEL airborne field measurement campaign, conducted over the Guyanas in October 2005, produced measurements of hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration which are significantly higher than can be simulated using current generation models of atmospheric chemistry. Based on the hypothesis that this "missing OH" is due to an as-yet undiscovered mechanism for recycling OH during the oxidation chain of isoprene, we determine that an OH recycling of about 40–50% (compared with 5–10% in current generation isoprene oxidation mechanisms) is necessary in order for our modelled OH to approach the lower error bounds of the OH observed during GABRIEL. Such a large amount of OH in our model leads to unrealistically low mixing ratios of isoprene. In order for our modelled isoprene mixing ratios to match those observed during the campaign, we also require that the effective rate constant for the reaction of isoprene with OH be reduced by about 50% compared with the lower bound of the range recommended by IUPAC. We show that a reasonable explanation for this lower effective rate constant could be the segregation of isoprene and OH in the mixed layer. Our modelling results are consistent with a global, annual isoprene source of about 500 Tg(C) yr<sup>−1</sup>, allowing experimentally derived and established isoprene flux rates to be reconciled with global models