A probability-based approach to setting annual catch levels.

The requirement of setting annual catch limits to prevent overfishing has been added to the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act of 2006 (MSRA). Because this requirement is new, a body of applied scientific practice for deriving annual catch limits and accompanying targets does not yet exist. This article demonstrates an approach to setting levels of catch that is intended to keep the probability of future overfishing at a preset low level. The proposed framework is based on stochastic projection with uncertainty in population dynamics. The framework extends common projection methodology by including uncertainty in the limit reference point and in management implementation, and by making explicit the risk of overfishing that managers consider acceptable. The approach is illustrated with application to gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a grouper that inhabits the waters off the southeastern United States. Although devised to satisfy new legislation of the MSRA, the framework has potential application to any fishery where the management goal is to limit the risk of overfishing by controlling catch

Assessment of cobia, Rachycentron canadum, in the waters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

This assessment applies to cobia (Rachycentron canadum) located in the territorial waters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Separation of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean is defined by the seaward extension of the Dade/Monroe county line in south Florida. Mixing of fish between the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico occurs in the Florida Keys during winter months. Cobia annually migrate north in early spring in the Gulf to spawning grounds in the northern Gulf of Mexico, returning to the Florida Keys by winter. Catches of cobia in the Gulf of Mexico are dominated by recreational landings, accounting for nearly 90% of the total. Since 1980, the landings of cobia in the recreational fishery have remained fairly stable at around 400-600 mt with a slight peak of 1,014 mt in 1997. The recreational fishery was estimated to have landed 471 mt in 2000. The landings from the commercial fishery have shown a steady increase from 45 mt in 1980 to a peak of 120 mt in 1994, followed by a decline to 62 mt in 2000. The previous assessment of cobia occurred in 1996 using a virtual population analysis (VPA) model. For this analysis a surplus-production model (ASPIC) and a forward-projecting, age-structured population model programmed in the AD Model Builder (ADMB) software were applied to cobia data from the Gulf of Mexico. The primary data consisted of four catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) indices derived from the Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) (1981-1999), Southeast region headboat survey (1986-1999), Texas creel survey (1983-1999), and shrimp bycatch estimates (1980-1999). Length samples were available from the commercial (1983-2000) and recreational (1981-2000) fisheries. The ASPIC model applied to the cobia data provided unsatisfactory results. The ADMB model fit described the observed length composition data and fishery landings fairly well based on graphical examination of model residuals. The CPUE indices indicated some disagreement for various years, but the model fit an overall increasing trend from 1992-1997 for the MRFSS, headboat, and Texas creel indices. The shrimp bycatch CPUE was treated as a recruitment index in the model. The fit to these data followed an upward trend in recruitment from 1988-1997, but did not fit the 1994-1997 data points very well. This was likely the result of conflicting information from other data sources. Natural mortality (M) for cobia is unknown. As a result, a range of values for M from 0.2-0.4, based on longevity and growth parameters, were selected for use in the age-structured model. The choice of natural mortality appears to greatly influence the perceived status of the population. Population status as measured by spawning stock biomass in the last year relative to the value at maximum sustainable yield (SSB2000/SSBMSY), spawning stock biomass in the last year relative to virgin spawning stock biomass (SSB2000/S0), and static spawning stock biomass per recruit (SSBR) all indicate the population is either depleted, near MSY, or well above MSY depending on the choice of M. The variance estimates for these benchmarks are very large and in most cases ranges from depleted to very healthy status. The only statement that can be made with any degree of certainty about cobia in the Gulf of Mexico is that the population has increased since the 1980s. (PDF contains 61 pages

Distribution and co-occurrence of rockfishes (family: Sebastidae) over trawlable shelf and slope habitats of California and southern Oregon

The rockfishes of the sebastid genus Sebastes are a very important fishery resource off the coasts of California and southern Oregon. How-ever, many of the 54 managed stocks of west coast rockfish have recently reached historically low population levels, leading fishery managers to re-examine current management practices. Management of rockfish stocks as multispecies aggregates, as opposed to independent stocks within the ground-fish fishery, can be more desirable when nontargeted bycatch, discard, and management complexity are considered. Rockfish assemblage structure and species co-occurrences were determined by using data from the Alaska Fisheries Science Center triennial continental shelf bottom trawl survey. The weight of rockfish species in trawl catches was expressed as a catch-per-unit-of-effort (CPUE) statistic, from which species spatial distributions, overlaps, diversity, and richness were analyzed. Multidimensional scaling of transformed CPUE data was employed in indirect gradient and multivariate partitioning analyses to quantify assemblage relationships. Results indicated that rockfish distributions closely match the bathymetry of coastal waters. Indirect gradient analysis suggested that depth and latitude are the principal factors in structuring the spatial distributions of rockfish on trawlable habitat. In addition, four assemblages were identified through the joint evaluation of species’ distributions and multivariate partitioning analyses: 1) deep-water slope; 2) northern shelf; 3) southern shelf; and 4) nearshore. The slope, shelf, and near-shore groups are found in depth ranges of 200–500 m, 100–250 m, and 50–150 m, respectively. The division of northern and southern shelf assemblages occurs over a broad area between Cape Mendocino and Monterey Canyon. The results of this analysis are likely to have direct application in the management of rockfish stocks off the coasts of southern Oregon and California

Effects of fishing on growth traits: a simulation analysis

Abstract—Fisheries often target individuals based on size. Size-selective fishing can create selection differentials on life-history traits and, when those traits have a genetic basis, may cause evolution. The evolution of life history traits affects potential yield and sustainability of fishing, and it is therefore an issue for fishery management. Yet fishery managers usually disregard the possibility of evolution, because little guidance is available to predict evolutionary consequences of management strategies. We attempt to provide some generic guidance. We develop an individual-based model of a population with overlapping generations and continuous reproduction. We simulate model populations under size-selective fishing to generate and quantify selection differentials on growth. The analysis comprises a variety of common life-history and fishery characteristics: variability in growth, correlation between von Bertalanffy growth parameters (K and L∞), maturity rate, natural mortality rate (M), M/K ratio, duration of spawning season, fishing mortality rate (F), maximum size limit, slope of selectivity curve, age at 50% selectivity, and duration of fishing season. We found that each characteristic affected the magnitude of selection differentials. The most vulnerable stocks were those with a short spawning or fishing season. Under almost all life-history and fishery characteristics examined, selection differentials created by realistic fishing mortality rates are considerable

Guided Neuronal Growth on Arrays of Biofunctionalized GaAs/InGaAs Semiconductor Microtubes

We demonstrate embedded growth of cortical mouse neurons in dense arrays of semiconductor microtubes. The microtubes, fabricated from a strained GaAs/InGaAs heterostructure, guide axon growth through them and enable electrical and optical probing of propagating action potentials. The coaxial nature of the microtubes -- similar to myelin -- is expected to enhance the signal transduction along the axon. We present a technique of suppressing arsenic toxicity and prove the success of this technique by overgrowing neuronal mouse cells.Comment: 3 pages, 4 figure

CYLD mutation characterizes a subset of HPV-positive head and neck squamous cell carcinomas with distinctive genomics and frequent cylindroma-like histologic features

Mutations in the tumor suppressor CYLD, known to be causative of cylindromas, were recently described in a subset of high-risk (hr) HPV-positive head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC). Pathologic and genetic characterization of these CYLD-mutant carcinomas, however, remains limited. Here, we investigated whether CYLD mutations characterize a histopathologically and genomically distinct subset of hrHPV-positive HNSCC. Comprehensive genomic profiling via hybrid capture-based DNA sequencing was performed on 703 consecutive head and neck carcinomas with hrHPV sequences, identifying 148 unique cases (21%) harboring CYLD mutations. Clinical data, pathology reports, and histopathology were reviewed. CYLD mutations included homozygous deletions (n = 61/148; 41%), truncations (n = 52; 35%), missense (n = 26; 18%) and splice-site (n = 9; 6%) mutations, and in-frame deletion (n = 1; 1%). Among hrHPV-positive HNSCC, the CYLD-mutant cohort showed substantially lower tumor mutational burden than CYLD-wildtype cases (n = 555) (median 2.6 vs. 4.4 mut/Mb, p \u3c 0.00001) and less frequent alterations in PIK3CA (11% vs. 34%, p \u3c 0.0001), KMT2D (1% vs. 16%, p \u3c 0.0001), and FBXW7 (3% vs. 11%, p = 0.0018). Male predominance (94% vs. 87%), median age (58 vs. 60 years), and detection of HPV16 (95% vs. 89%) were similar. On available histopathology, 70% of CYLD-mutant HNSCC (98/141 cases) contained hyalinized material, consistent with basement membrane inclusions, within crowded aggregates of tumor cells. Only 7% of CYLD-wildtype cases demonstrated this distinctive pattern (p \u3c 0.0001). Histopathologic patterns of CYLD-mutant HNSCC lacking basement membrane inclusions included nonkeratinizing (n = 22, 16%), predominantly nonkeratinizing (nonkeratinizing SCC with focal maturation; n = 10, 7%), and keratinizing (n = 11, 8%) patterns. The latter two groups showed significantly higher frequency of PTEN alterations compared with other CYLD-mutant cases (38% [8/21] vs. 7% [8/120], p = 0.0004). Within our cohort of hrHPV-positive HNSCCs, CYLD mutations were frequent (21%) and demonstrated distinctive clinical, histopathologic, and genomic features that may inform future study of prognosis and treatment

Supernova Remnants and Star Formation in the Large Magellanic Cloud

It has often been suggested that supernova remnants (SNRs) can trigger star formation. To investigate the relationship between SNRs and star formation, we have examined the known sample of 45 SNRs in the Large Magellanic Cloud to search for associated young stellar objects (YSOs) and molecular clouds. We find seven SNRs associated with both YSOs and molecular clouds, three SNRs associated with YSOs but not molecular clouds, and eight SNRs near molecular clouds but not associated with YSOs. Among the 10 SNRs associated with YSOs, the association between the YSOs and SNRs can be either rejected or cannot be convincingly established for eight cases. Only two SNRs have YSOs closely aligned along their rims; however, the time elapsed since the SNR began to interact with the YSOs' natal clouds is much shorter than the contraction timescales of the YSOs, and thus we do not see any evidence of SNR-triggered star formation in the LMC. The 15 SNRs that are near molecular clouds may trigger star formation in the future when the SNR shocks have slowed down to <45 km/s. We discuss how SNRs can alter the physical properties and abundances of YSOs.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, Accepted for publication in the August 2010 edition of the Astronomical Journa

Amplified surface warming in the south-west Pacific during the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma) and future implications

Based on Nationally Determined Contributions concurrent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2-4.5, the IPCC predicts global warming of 2.1–3.5 ∘C (very likely range 10–90th percentile) by 2100 CE. However, global average temperature is a poor indicator of regional warming and global climate models (GCMs) require validation with instrumental or proxy data from geological archives to assess their ability to simulate regional ocean and atmospheric circulation, and thus, to evaluate their performance for regional climate projections. The south-west Pacific is a region that performs poorly when GCMs are evaluated against instrumental observations. The New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM) was developed from the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM) to better understand south-west Pacific response to global change, by including a nested ocean grid in the south-west Pacific with 80 % greater horizontal resolution than the global-scale host.Here, we reconstruct regional south-west Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3–3.0 Ma), which has been widely considered a past analogue with an equilibrium surface temperature response of +3 ∘C to an atmospheric CO2 concentration of ∼350–400 ppm, in order to assess the warming distribution in the south-west Pacific. This study presents proxy SSTs from seven deep sea sediment cores distributed across the south-west Pacific. Our reconstructed SSTs are derived from molecular biomarkers preserved in the sediment – alkenones (i.e. U index) and isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (i.e. TEX86 index) – and are compared with SSTs reconstructed from the Last Interglacial (125 ka), Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) outputs and transient climate model projections (NZESM and UKESM) of low- to high-range SSPs for 2090–2099 CE.Mean interglacial equilibrium SSTs during the mPWP for the south-west Pacific sites were on average 4.2 ∘C (1.8–6.1 ∘C likely range) above pre-industrial temperatures and show good agreement with model outputs from NZESM and UKESM under mid-range SSP 2–4.6 conditions. These results highlight that not only is the mPWP an appropriate analogue when considering future temperature change in the centuries to come, but they also demonstrate that the south-west Pacific region will experience warming that exceeds that of the global mean if atmospheric CO2 remains above 350 ppm

Ernst Freund as Precursor of the Rational Study of Corporate Law

Gindis, David, Ernst Freund as Precursor of the Rational Study of Corporate Law (October 27, 2017). Journal of Institutional Economics, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2905547, doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2905547The rise of large business corporations in the late 19th century compelled many American observers to admit that the nature of the corporation had yet to be understood. Published in this context, Ernst Freund's little-known The Legal Nature of Corporations (1897) was an original attempt to come to terms with a new legal and economic reality. But it can also be described, to paraphrase Oliver Wendell Holmes, as the earliest example of the rational study of corporate law. The paper shows that Freund had the intuitions of an institutional economist, and engaged in what today would be called comparative institutional analysis. Remarkably, his argument that the corporate form secures property against insider defection and against outsiders anticipated recent work on entity shielding and capital lock-in, and can be read as an early contribution to what today would be called the theory of the firm.Peer reviewe

Vaccines against toxoplasma gondii : challenges and opportunities

Development of vaccines against Toxoplasma gondii infection in humans is of high priority, given the high burden of disease in some areas of the world like South America, and the lack of effective drugs with few adverse effects. Rodent models have been used in research on vaccines against T. gondii over the past decades. However, regardless of the vaccine construct, the vaccines have not been able to induce protective immunity when the organism is challenged with T. gondii, either directly or via a vector. Only a few live, attenuated T. gondii strains used for immunization have been able to confer protective immunity, which is measured by a lack of tissue cysts after challenge. Furthermore, challenge with low virulence strains, especially strains with genotype II, will probably be insufficient to provide protection against the more virulent T. gondii strains, such as those with genotypes I or II, or those genotypes from South America not belonging to genotype I, II or III. Future studies should use animal models besides rodents, and challenges should be performed with at least one genotype II T. gondii and one of the more virulent genotypes. Endpoints like maternal-foetal transmission and prevention of eye disease are important in addition to the traditional endpoint of survival or reduction in numbers of brain cysts after challenge