An Agent Based Simulation of Smart Metering Technology Adoption

Based on the classic behavioural theory “the Theory of Planned Behaviour”, we develop an agent-based model to simulate the diffusion of smart metering technology in the electricity market. We simulate the emergent adoption of smart metering technology under different management strategies and economic regulations. Our research results show that in terms of boosting the take-off of smart meters in the electricity market, choosing the initial users on a random and geographically dispersed basis and encouraging meter competition between energy suppliers can be two very effective strategies. We also observe an “S-curve” diffusion of smart metering technology and a “lock-in” effect in the model. The research results provide us with insights as to effective policies and strategies for the roll-out of smart metering technology in the electricity market

Nuclear Energy in the UK: Safety Culture and Industrial Organisation

In this paper we seek to explore the relationship between professionalism and nuclear safety in the UK. We consider the history of civil nuclear energy in Britain and the near complete shift in emphasis from state owned enterprises to the private sector. We show how in recent years government has acknowledged that a truly liberalised electricity industry is unable to deliver the construction of new nuclear power stations as part of a future low carbon electricity system. Throughout, however, the intention has been for policy merely to incentivise the private sector rather than to steer industry strategy directly. Having said that, the line between strong incentives and weak control can be hard to see. We present illustrative examples, real and fictional, that give insight into the UK nuclear safety culture and we discuss the wider nature of UK society with respect to corruption. We conclude that the unique basis of safety regulation in the UK, essentially permissive rather than prescriptive, has a key role to play in promoting and maintaining nuclear professionalism

The global nuclear liability regime post Fukushima Daiichi

Nuclear liability regimes are important as they ensure that potential victims will be compensated promptly and efficiently after a nuclear accident. The accident at Fukushima Daiichi in Japan in 2011 prompted a review of the global nuclear liability regime that remains on-going. Progress has been slow, but over the next few years the European Union is set to announce its new proposals. Meanwhile, in 2015, another global nuclear liability regime, the Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage, has entered into force. This paper aims to move the debate in the literature on nuclear liability and focuses on the four following major issues: (1) reviews third-party nuclear liability regimes currently in operation around the world; (2) analyses the international nuclear liability regime following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi; (3) comparatively assesses the liability regimes for nuclear energy and the non-nuclear energy sector; and (4) presents the future outlook for possible developments in the global nuclear liability regime

New Electricity Technologies for a Sustainable Future

There is a growing concern over our reliance on conventional electricity sources and their long-term environmental, climate change, and security of supply implications, and much hope is vested in the ability of future technological progress to tackle these issues. However, informed academic analysis and policy debates on the future of electricity systems must be based on the current state, and prospects of, technological options. This paper is the introductory chapter in the forthcoming book Future Electricity Technologies and Systems. The book comprises contributions from leading experts in their respective technology areas. The chapters present state of the art and likely progress paths of conventional and new electricity generation, networks, storage, and end-use technologies. In this paper we review the growth trend in electricity demand and carbon emissions. We then present a concise overview of the chapters. Finally, we discuss the main contextual factors that influence long-term technological progress

Generation Adequacy and Investment Incentives in Britain: from the Pool to NETA

Three years after the controversial change of the British market design from compulsory Pool with capacity payments to decentralised energy-only New Electricity Trading Arrangements (NETA) market framework, we compare the two designs in terms of investment incentives. We review the biases of the Pool capacity payments design, the drought of investment following the introduction of NETA, and the reaction of the market during the first “stress-test” of NETA during the winter 2003. In an energy-only market such as NETA, it is essential that price signals are right and the system operator has a crucial role in contracting ahead for reserve. We recommend that NETA adopt a single marginal imbalance price as dual imbalance pricing distorts price signals in times of scarcity. The lack of long-term contracting that causes hedging and financing difficulties for power projects can becompensated by vertical and horizontal reintegration at a cost of increased market power

Fuel Panics - insights from spatial agent-based simulation

The United Kingdom has twice suffered major disruption as a result of fuel panics first in September 2000 coincident with a wave of fuel protests and more recently in March 2012 following politcal warnings of possible future supply chain disruption. In each case the disruption and economic consequences were serious. Fuel distribution is an example of a supply chain. Approaches to supply-chain planning based on linear programming are poorly suited to modelling non-equilibrium effects, while coarse-grained system dynamics models often fail to capture local phenomena which contribute to the evolution of global demand. In this Paper, we demonstrate that agent-based techniques offer a powerful framework for cosimulation of supply chains and consumers under conditions of transient demand. In the case of fuel panic crisis, we show that even a highly abstract model can reproduce a range of transient phenomena seen in the real world, and present a set of practical recommendations for policymakers faced with panic-buying

A dynamic simulation of low-carbon policy influences on endogenous electricity demand in an isolated island system

This paper considers the dynamics of electricity demand in response to changes arising from low-carbon policies and socio-economic developments. As part of an investigation into the evolution of such systems on small economically-developed islands, endogenous electricity demand and associated policies are studied for the Azorean island of São Miguel. A comprehensive System Dynamics (SD) model covering the period 2005 − 2050 is presented which captures both historical behaviours and real-world influences on the endogenous demand dynamics of an island-based electricity system. The impact of tourism, energy efficiency and electric vehicles (EV) expansion allied with associated policy options, are critically evaluated by the SD model using a series of scenarios. The model shows that energy efficiency measures exhibit the most significant long-term impact on electricity demand, while in contrast, policies to increase tourism have a much less direct impact and EV expansion has thought-provoking impacts on the long-term demand, although this is not as influential as energy efficiency measures

A System Dynamics Study of Uranium and the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

To advance current knowledge of the uranium market, a system dynamics model of the nuclear fuel cycle for the time period 1988 to 2048 has been developed. The proposed framework of analysis illustrates some of the key features of the market for this commodity, including the role that time lags play in the formation of price volatility. Various demand reduction and substitution strategies and technologies are explored, and potential external shocks are simulated to investigate how price and the associated industry respond. Sensitivity analysis performed by considering key model parameters indicates that the time constant related to the formation of traders’ expectations of future market prices embedded in the proposed price discovery mechanism has a strong influence on both the amplitude and frequency of price peaks. One particularly interesting and timely scenario simulated is the possibility of the ending of the “Megatons to Megawatts” program, in which the USA agreed to buy down-blended uranium from former Soviet nuclear warheads for use in power production. This agreement has not been formally renewed and we find that in the absence of new substitute sources this could cause a significant rise in uranium prices. Finally, our analysis leads us to believe that uranium resource scarcity will not pose any significant challenges until the second half of the twenty first century at the earliest, even if high uranium demand projections are realized

Compensating for severe nuclear accidents: An expert elucidation

We present the results of a structured discussion held in London in July 2014 involving a panel of experts drawn from three communities: specialists on aspects of risk and insurance; lawyers concerned with issues of nuclear law; and safety and environmental regulators. The discussions were held on the basis of participant anonymity. The process emphasised three considerations: conceptions of loss arising from a severe nuclear accident; the specifics of the Fukushima-Daiichi accident and what it means for policy and strategy going forward; and the future of liability regimes. We observe some stoicism from those closest to implementation of policies and procedures associated with nuclear risks, but a lower level of certainty and confidence among those concerned with nuclear energy regulation