Temporally varying natural mortality: Sensitivity of a virtual population analysis and an exploration of alternatives

Cohort reconstructions (CR) currently applied in Pacific salmon management estimate temporally variant exploitation, maturation, and juvenile natural mortality rates but require an assumed (typically invariant) adult natural mortality rate (dA), resulting in unknown biases in the remaining vital rates. We explored the sensitivity of CR results to misspecification of the mean and/or variability of dA, as well as the potential to estimate dA directly using models that assumed separable year and age/cohort effects on vital rates (separable cohort reconstruction, SCR). For CR, given the commonly assumed dA = 0.2, the error (RMSE) in estimated vital rates is generally small (? 0.05) when annual values of dA are low to moderate (? 0.4). The greatest absolute errors are in maturation rates, with large relative error in the juvenile survival rate. The ability of CR estimates to track temporal trends in the juvenile natural mortality rate is adequate (Pearson's correlation coefficient > 0.75) except for high dA (? 0.6) and high variability (CV > 0.35). The alternative SCR models allowing estimation of time-varying dA by assuming additive effects in natural mortality, fishing mortality, and/or maturation rates did not outperform CR across all simulated scenarios, and are less accurate when additivity assumptions are violated. Nevertheless an SCR model assuming additive effects on fishing and natural (juvenile and adult) mortality rates led to nearly unbiased estimates of all quantities estimated using CR, along with borderline acceptable estimates of the mean dA under multiple sets of conditions conducive to CR. Adding an assumption of additive effects on the maturation rates allowed nearly unbiased estimates of the mean dA as well. The SCR models performed slightly better than CR when the vital rates covaried as assumed. These separable models could serve as a partial check on the validity of CR assumptions about the adult natural mortality rate, or even a preferred alternative if there is strong reason to believe the vital rates, including juvenile and adult natural mortality rates, covary strongly across years or age classes as assumed

Potential for ecological nonlinearities and thresholds to inform Pacific salmon management

AbstractEcology is often governed by nonlinear dynamics. Nonlinear ecological relationships can include thresholds—incremental changes in drivers that provoke disproportionately large ecological responses. Among the species that experience nonlinear and threshold dynamics are Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). These culturally, ecologically, and economically significant fishes are in many places declining and management focal points. Often, managers can influence or react to ecological conditions that salmon experience, suggesting that nonlinearities, especially thresholds, may provide opportunities to inform decisions. However, nonlinear dynamics are not always invoked in management decisions involving salmon. Here, we review reported nonlinearities and thresholds in salmon ecology, describe potential applications that scientists and managers could develop to leverage nonlinear dynamics, and offer a path toward decisions that account for ecological nonlinearities and thresholds to improve salmon outcomes. It appears that nonlinear dynamics are not uncommon in salmon ecology and that many management arenas may potentially leverage them to enable more effective or efficient decisions. Indeed, decisions guided by nonlinearities and thresholds may be particularly desirable considering salmon management arenas are often characterized by limited resources and mounting ecological stressors, practical constraints, and conservation challenges. More broadly, many salmon systems are data‐rich and there are an extensive range of ecological contexts in which salmon are sensitive to anthropogenic decisions. Approaches developed to leverage nonlinearities in salmon ecology may serve as examples that may inform analogous approaches in other systems and taxa

Use of Genetic Stock Identification Data for Comparison of the Ocean Spatial Distribution, Size at Age, and Fishery Exposure of an Untagged Stock and Its Indicator: California Coastal versus Klamath River Chinook Salmon

Managing weak stocks in mixed-stock fisheries often relies on proxies derived from data-rich indicator stocks. For example, full cohort reconstruction of tagged Klamath River fall run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) of northern California, USA, enables the use of detailed models to inform management. Information gained from this stock is also used in the management of the untagged, threatened California Coastal Chinook (CCC) salmon stock, by capping Klamath harvest rates. To evaluate use of this proxy, we used genetic stock identification (GSI) data to compare the two stocks\u27 size-at-age and ocean distribution, two key factors influencing fishery exposure. We developed methods to account for both sampling and genetic assignment uncertainty in catch estimates. We found that, in 2010, the stocks were similar in size-at-age early in the year (age-3 and age-4), but CCC fish were larger later in the year. The stocks appeared similarly distributed early in the year (2010), but more concentrated near their respective source rivers later in the year (2010 and 2011). If these results are representative, relative fishery impacts on the two stocks might scale similarly early in the year but management changes later in the year might have differing impacts on the two stocks

Impact of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries: Surprises and lessons from key case studies

Marine heatwaves are increasingly affecting marine ecosystems, with cascading impacts on coastal economies, communities, and food systems. Studies of heatwaves provide crucial insights into potential ecosystem shifts under future climate change and put fisheries social-ecological systems through “stress tests” that expose both vulnerabilities and resilience. The 2014–16 Northeast Pacific heatwave was the strongest and longest marine heatwave on record and resulted in profound ecological changes that impacted fisheries, fisheries management, and human livelihoods. Here, we synthesize the impacts of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries and extract key lessons for preparing global fisheries science, management, and industries for the future. We set the stage with a brief review of the impacts of the heatwave on marine ecosystems and the first systematic analysis of the economic impacts of these changes on commercial and recreational fisheries. We then examine ten key case studies that provide instructive examples of the complex and surprising challenges that heatwaves pose to fisheries social-ecological systems. These reveal important insights into improving the resilience of monitoring and management and increasing adaptive capacity to future stressors. Key recommendations include: (1) expanding monitoring to enhance mechanistic understanding, provide early warning signals, and improve predictions of impacts; (2) increasing the flexibility, adaptiveness, and inclusiveness of management where possible; (3) using simulation testing to help guide management decisions; and (4) enhancing the adaptive capacity of fishing communities by promoting engagement, flexibility, experimentation, and failsafes. These advancements are important as global fisheries prepare for a changing oceanWe are grateful to Nate Mantua, Manuel Hidalgo, Kiva Oken, and Cori Lopazanski for feedback on manuscript drafts. We thank Jean Lee for sharing a non-confidential version of the Gulf of Alaska commercial fisheries landings data and Evan Damkjar and John Davidson for sharing non-confidential versions of British Columbia's commercial and recreational fisheries landings data. CMF was funded by The Nature Conservancy, California. BM was partially supported by the Future Seas II project under NOAA's Climate and Fisheries Adaptation Program (NA20OAR431050). The scientific results and conclusions, as well as any views or opinions expressed herein, are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or the Department of Commerce.Ye

Autobiographical memory and hierarchical search strategies in depressed and non-depressed participants

Background: There is a growing body of literature showing individuals with depression and other trauma-related disorders (e.g., posttraumatic stress disorder) recall more overgeneral and less specific autobiographical memories compared to normal participants. Although the mechanisms underlying overgeneral memory are quite clear, the search strategy operated within the autobiographical knowledge base, at time of recollection, requires further exploration. The current study aimed to examine the hierarchical search sequence used to recall autobiographical memories in depressed and non-depressed participants, with a view to determining whether depressed participants exhibited truncated search strategies. Methods: Thirteen depressed and an equal number of non-depressed participants retrieved 15 memories each, in response to 15 commonly used cue words. Participants reported the first memory that entered in their mind. All memory descriptions were recorded and later transcribed verbatim for content analysis.Results: Depressed participants retrieved autobiographical memories faster, produced shorter memory descriptions and were less likely to recall positive memories than non-depressed participants. Non-depressed participants were more likely to commence retrieval by accessing lifetime period knowledge followed by general event and event specific knowledge, whereas depressed participants showed a tendency to terminate retrieval at the general event level. Conclusions: It is concluded that depressed participants do adhere to the same hierarchical search strategy as non-depressed participants when retrieving specific autobiographical memories, but that they terminate their search early, resulting in overgeneral memories

Use of Genetic Stock Identification Data for Comparison of the Ocean Spatial Distribution, Size at Age, and Fishery Exposure of an Untagged Stock and Its Indicator: California Coastal versus Klamath River Chinook Salmon

Managing weak stocks in mixed-stock fisheries often relies on proxies derived from data-rich indicator stocks, although there have been limited tests of the appropriateness of such proxies. For example, full cohort reconstruction of tagged Klamath River fall-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha of northern California enables the use of detailed models to inform management. Information gained from this stock is also used in the management of the untagged, threatened California Coastal Chinook Salmon (CCC) stock, where it is assumed that a cap on Klamath harvest rates effectively constrains impacts on CCC to acceptable levels. To evaluate use of this proxy, we used a novel approach based on genetic stock identification (GSI) data to compare the two stocks’ size at age and ocean distribution (as inferred from spatial variation in CPUE), two key factors influencing fishery exposure. We developed broadly applicable methods to account for both sampling and genetic assignment uncertainty in estimating total stock-specific catch from GSI data, and propagated this uncertainty into models quantifying variation in CPUE across space and time. We found that, in 2010, the stocks were similar in size at age early in the year (age 3 and age 4), but CCC fish were larger later in the year. The stocks appeared similarly distributed early in the year (2010) but more concentrated near their respective source rivers later in the year (2010 and 2011). If these results are representative, relative fishery impacts on the two stocks might scale similarly early in the year, but management changes later in the year could have differing impacts on the two stocks. This novel modeling approach is suited to evaluating the concordance between other data-limited stocks and their proxies, and can be broadly applied to estimate stock-specific harvest, and the uncertainty therein, using GSI in other systems

Evaluating the Potential Effectiveness of Compensatory Mitigation Strategies for Marine Bycatch

Conservationists are continually seeking new strategies to reverse population declines and safeguard against species extinctions. Here we evaluate the potential efficacy of a recently proposed approach to offset a major anthropogenic threat to many marine vertebrates: incidental bycatch in commercial fisheries operations. This new approach, compensatory mitigation for marine bycatch (CMMB), is conceived as a way to replace or reduce mandated restrictions on fishing activities with compensatory activities (e.g., removal of introduced predators from islands) funded by levies placed on fishers. While efforts are underway to bring CMMB into policy discussions, to date there has not been a detailed evaluation of CMMB's potential as a conservation tool, and in particular, a list of necessary and sufficient criteria that CMMB must meet to be an effective conservation strategy. Here we present a list of criteria to assess CMMB that are tied to critical ecological aspects of the species targeted for conservation, the range of possible mitigation activities, and the multi-species impact of fisheries bycatch. We conclude that, overall, CMMB has little potential for benefit and a substantial potential for harm if implemented to solve most fisheries bycatch problems. In particular, CMMB is likely to be effective only when applied to short-lived and highly-fecund species (not the characteristics of most bycatch-impacted species) and to fisheries that take few non-target species, and especially few non-seabird species (not the characteristics of most fisheries). Thus, CMMB appears to have limited application and should only be implemented after rigorous appraisal on a case-specific basis; otherwise it has the potential to accelerate declines of marine species currently threatened by fisheries bycatch

Priorities for synthesis research in ecology and environmental science

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank the National Science Foundation grant #1940692 for financial support for this workshop, and the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) and its staff for logistical support.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Priorities for synthesis research in ecology and environmental science

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank the National Science Foundation grant #1940692 for financial support for this workshop, and the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) and its staff for logistical support.Peer reviewedPublisher PD