Orion Spacecraft MMOD Protection Design and Assessment

A first-principals, semi-empirical ballistic performance model has been developed for porous ceramics. Lightweight thermal protection systems protect the crew and vehicle of orbital and exo-orbital missions from the intense heat of atmospheric reentry. To maintain low launch weights these materials are their own protection from space hazards like orbital debris and meteoroids. A ballistic performance model is described here that models the performance under a variety of impact conditions. Using the model described here relative to an energy scaled model results in a significantly reduced prediction of full penetration of this material at ISS orbital parameters

Packed Ultra-wideband Mapping Array (PUMA): A Radio Telescope for Cosmology and Transients

PUMA is a proposal for an ultra-wideband, low-resolution and transit interferometric radio telescope operating at $200-1100\,\mathrm{MHz}$. Its design is driven by six science goals which span three science themes: the physics of dark energy (measuring the expansion history and growth of the universe up to $z=6$), the physics of inflation (constraining primordial non-Gaussianity and primordial features) and the transient radio sky (detecting one million fast radio bursts and following up SKA-discovered pulsars). We propose two array configurations composed of hexagonally close-packed 6m dish arrangements with 50% fill factor. The initial 5,000 element 'petite array' is scientifically compelling, and can act as a demonstrator and a stepping stone to the full 32,000 element 'full array'. Viewed as a 21cm intensity mapping telescope, the program has the noise equivalent of a traditional spectroscopic galaxy survey comprised of 0.6 and 2.5 billion galaxies at a comoving wavenumber of $k=0.5\,h\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ spanning the redshift range $z = 0.3 - 6$ for the petite and full configurations, respectively. At redshifts beyond $z=2$, the 21cm technique is a uniquely powerful way of mapping the universe, while the low-redshift range will allow for numerous cross-correlations with existing and upcoming surveys. This program is enabled by the development of ultra-wideband radio feeds, cost-effective dish construction methods, commodity radio-frequency electronics driven by the telecommunication industry and the emergence of sufficient computing power to facilitate real-time signal processing that exploits the full potential of massive radio arrays. The project has an estimated construction cost of 55 and 330 million FY19 USD for the petite and full array configurations. Including R&D, design, operations and science analysis, the cost rises to 125 and 600 million FY19 USD, respectively.Comment: 10 pages + references, 3 figures, 3 tables; project white paper submitted to the Astro2020 decadal survey; further details in updated arXiv:1810.0957

Reputation and identity conflict in management consulting

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from SAGE Publications via the DOI in this record.Based on a case study of a large consulting firm, this paper makes two contributions to the literature on reputation and identity by examining how an organization responds when its identity is substantially misaligned with the experience and perceptions of external stakeholders that form the basis of reputational judgments. First, rather than triggering some form of identity adaptation, it outlines how other forms of identity can come into play to remediate this gap, buffering the organization’s identity from change. This shift to other individual identities is facilitated by a low organizational identity context even when the identity of the firm is coherent and strong. The second contribution concerns the conceptualization of consulting and other professional service firms. We explain how reputation and identity interact in the context of the distinctive organizational features of these firms. Notably, their loosely coupled structure and the central importance of expert knowledge claims enable individual consultants both to reinforce and supplement corporate reputation via individual identity work

Orbit and Dynamical Mass of the Late-T Dwarf Gl 758 B

Gl 758 B is a late-T dwarf orbiting a metal-rich Sun-like star at a projected separation of $\rho$ $\approx$ 1.6" (25 AU). We present four epochs of astrometry of this system with NIRC2 at Keck Observatory spanning 2010 to 2017 together with 630 radial velocities (RVs) of the host star acquired over the past two decades from McDonald Observatory, Keck Observatory, and the Automated Planet Finder at Lick Observatory. The RVs reveal that Gl 758 is accelerating with an evolving rate that varies between 2-5 m s$^{-1}$ yr$^{-1}$, consistent with the expected influence of the imaged companion Gl 758 B. A joint fit of the RVs and astrometry yields a dynamical mass of 42$^{+19}_{-7}$ M$_\mathrm{Jup}$ for the companion with a robust lower limit of 30.5 M$_\mathrm{Jup}$ at the 4-$\sigma$ level. Gl 758 B is on an eccentric orbit ($e$ = 0.26-0.67 at 95% confidence) with a semimajor axis of $a$ = $21.1_{-1.3}^{+2.7}$ AU and an orbital period of $P$ = $96_{-9}^{+21}$ yr, which takes it within $\approx$9 AU from its host star at periastron passage. Substellar evolutionary models generally underpredict the mass of Gl 758 B for nominal ages of 1-6 Gyr that have previously been adopted for the host star. This discrepancy can be reconciled if the system is older---which is consistent with activity indicators and recent isochrone fitting of the host star---or alternatively if the models are systematically overluminous by $\approx$0.1-0.2 dex. Gl 758 B is currently the lowest-mass directly imaged companion inducing a measured acceleration on its host star. In the future, bridging RVs and high-contrast imaging with the next generation of extremely large telescopes and space-based facilities will open the door to the first dynamical mass measurements of imaged exoplanets.Comment: AJ, accepte

Common Genetic Polymorphisms Influence Blood Biomarker Measurements in COPD

Implementing precision medicine for complex diseases such as chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD) will require extensive use of biomarkers and an in-depth understanding of how genetic, epigenetic, and environmental variations contribute to phenotypic diversity and disease progression. A meta-analysis from two large cohorts of current and former smokers with and without COPD [SPIROMICS (N = 750); COPDGene (N = 590)] was used to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with measurement of 88 blood proteins (protein quantitative trait loci; pQTLs). PQTLs consistently replicated between the two cohorts. Features of pQTLs were compared to previously reported expression QTLs (eQTLs). Inference of causal relations of pQTL genotypes, biomarker measurements, and four clinical COPD phenotypes (airflow obstruction, emphysema, exacerbation history, and chronic bronchitis) were explored using conditional independence tests. We identified 527 highly significant (p 10% of measured variation in 13 protein biomarkers, with a single SNP (rs7041; p = 10−392) explaining 71%-75% of the measured variation in vitamin D binding protein (gene = GC). Some of these pQTLs [e.g., pQTLs for VDBP, sRAGE (gene = AGER), surfactant protein D (gene = SFTPD), and TNFRSF10C] have been previously associated with COPD phenotypes. Most pQTLs were local (cis), but distant (trans) pQTL SNPs in the ABO blood group locus were the top pQTL SNPs for five proteins. The inclusion of pQTL SNPs improved the clinical predictive value for the established association of sRAGE and emphysema, and the explanation of variance (R2) for emphysema improved from 0.3 to 0.4 when the pQTL SNP was included in the model along with clinical covariates. Causal modeling provided insight into specific pQTL-disease relationships for airflow obstruction and emphysema. In conclusion, given the frequency of highly significant local pQTLs, the large amount of variance potentially explained by pQTL, and the differences observed between pQTLs and eQTLs SNPs, we recommend that protein biomarker-disease association studies take into account the potential effect of common local SNPs and that pQTLs be integrated along with eQTLs to uncover disease mechanisms. Large-scale blood biomarker studies would also benefit from close attention to the ABO blood group

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030