Niche tracking and rapid establishment of distributional equilibrium in the house sparrow show potential responsiveness of species to climate change.

The ability of species to respond to novel future climates is determined in part by their physiological capacity to tolerate climate change and the degree to which they have reached and continue to maintain distributional equilibrium with the environment. While broad-scale correlative climatic measurements of a species' niche are often described as estimating the fundamental niche, it is unclear how well these occupied portions actually approximate the fundamental niche per se, versus the fundamental niche that exists in environmental space, and what fitness values bounding the niche are necessary to maintain distributional equilibrium. Here, we investigate these questions by comparing physiological and correlative estimates of the thermal niche in the introduced North American house sparrow (Passer domesticus). Our results indicate that occupied portions of the fundamental niche derived from temperature correlations closely approximate the centroid of the existing fundamental niche calculated on a fitness threshold of 50% population mortality. Using these niche measures, a 75-year time series analysis (1930-2004) further shows that: (i) existing fundamental and occupied niche centroids did not undergo directional change, (ii) interannual changes in the two niche centroids were correlated, (iii) temperatures in North America moved through niche space in a net centripetal fashion, and consequently, (iv) most areas throughout the range of the house sparrow tracked the existing fundamental niche centroid with respect to at least one temperature gradient. Following introduction to a new continent, the house sparrow rapidly tracked its thermal niche and established continent-wide distributional equilibrium with respect to major temperature gradients. These dynamics were mediated in large part by the species' broad thermal physiological tolerances, high dispersal potential, competitive advantage in human-dominated landscapes, and climatically induced changes to the realized environmental space. Such insights may be used to conceptualize mechanistic climatic niche models in birds and other taxa

A Mechanistic Niche Model for Measuring Species' Distributional Responses to Seasonal Temperature Gradients

Niche theory is central to understanding how species respond geographically to climate change. It defines a species' realized niche in a biological community, its fundamental niche as determined by physiology, and its potential niche—the fundamental niche in a given environment or geographic space. However, most predictions of the effects of climate change on species' distributions are limited to correlative models of the realized niche, which assume that species are in distributional equilibrium with respect to the variables or gradients included in the model. Here, I present a mechanistic niche model that measures species' responses to major seasonal temperature gradients that interact with the physiology of the organism. I then use lethal physiological temperatures to parameterize the model for bird species in North and South America and show that most focal bird species are not in direct physiological equilibrium with the gradients. Results also show that most focal bird species possess broad thermal tolerances encompassing novel climates that could become available with climate change. I conclude with discussion of how mechanistic niche models may be used to (i) gain insights into the processes that cause species to respond to climate change and (ii) build more accurate correlative distribution models in birds and other species

Species richness and phylogenetic diversity of native and non-native species respond differently to area and environmental factors

© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Aim: To test whether native and non-native species have similar diversity–area relationships (species–area relationships [SARs] and phylogenetic diversity–area relationships [PDARs]) and whether they respond similarly to environmental variables. Location: United States. Methods: Using lists of native and non-native species as well as environmental variables for \u3e250 US national parks, we compared SARs and PDARs of native and non-native species to test whether they respond similarly to environmental conditions. We then used multiple regressions involving climate, land cover and anthropogenic variables to further explore underlying predictors of diversity for plants and birds in US national parks. Results: Native and non-native species had different slopes for SARs and PDARs, with significantly higher slopes for native species. Corroborating this pattern, multiple regressions showed that native and non-native diversity of plants and birds responded differently to a greater number of environmental variables than expected by chance. For native species richness, park area and longitude were the most important variables while the number of park visitors, temperature and the percentage of natural area were among the most important ones for non-native species richness. Interestingly, the most important predictor of native and non-native plant phylogenetic diversity, temperature, had positive effects on non-native plants but negative effects on natives. Main conclusions: SARs, PDARs and multiple regressions all suggest that native and non-native plants and birds responded differently to environmental factors that influence their diversity. The agreement between diversity–area relationships and multiple regressions with environmental variables suggests that SARs and PDARs can be both used as quick proxies of overall responses of species to environmental conditions. However, more importantly, our results suggest that global change will have different effects on native and non-native species, making it inappropriate to apply the large body of knowledge on native species to understand patterns of community assembly of non-native species

Forecasting Distributional Responses of Limber Pine to Climate Change at Management-Relevant Scales in Rocky Mountain National Park

Resource managers at parks and other protected areas are increasingly expected to factor climate change explicitly into their decision making frameworks. However, most protected areas are small relative to the geographic ranges of species being managed, so forecasts need to consider local adaptation and community dynamics that are correlated with climate and affect distributions inside protected area boundaries. Additionally, niche theory suggests that species\u27 physiological capacities to respond to climate change may be underestimated when forecasts fail to consider the full breadth of climates occupied by the species rangewide. Here, using correlative species distribution models that contrast estimates of climatic sensitivity inferred from the two spatial extents, we quantify the response of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to climate change in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Models are trained locally within the park where limber pine is the community dominant tree species, a distinct structural-compositional vegetation class of interest to managers, and also rangewide, as suggested by niche theory. Model forecasts through 2100 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2) show that the distribution of limber pine in the park is expected to move upslope in elevation, but changes in total and core patch area remain highly uncertain. Most of this uncertainty is biological, as magnitudes of projected change are considerably more variable between the two spatial extents used in model training than they are between RCPs, and novel future climates only affect local model predictions associated with RCP 8.5 after 2091. Combined, these results illustrate the importance of accounting for unknowns in species\u27 climatic sensitivities when forecasting distributional scenarios that are used to inform management decisions. We discuss how our results for limber pine may be interpreted in the context of climate change vulnerability and used to help guide adaptive management

Exposure of U.S. National Parks to land use and climate change 1900-2100

Many protected areas may not be adequately safeguarding biodiversity from human activities on surrounding lands and global change. The magnitude of such change agents and the sensitivity of ecosystems to these agents vary among protected areas. Thus, there is a need to assess vulnerability across networks of protected areas to determine those most at risk and to lay the basis for developing effective adaptation strategies. We conducted an assessment of exposure of U.S. National Parks to climate and land use change and consequences for vegetation communities. We first defined park protected-area centered ecosystems (PACEs) based on ecological principles. We then drew on existing land use, invasive species, climate, and biome data sets and models to quantify exposure of PACEs from 1900 through 2100. Most PACEs experienced substantial change over the 20th century (.740% average increase in housing density since 1940, 13% of vascular plants are presently nonnative, temperature increase of 18C/100 yr since 1895 in 80% of PACEs), and projections suggest that many of these trends will continue at similar or increasingly greater rates (255% increase in housing density by 2100, temperature increase of 2.58–4.58C/100 yr, 30% of PACE areas may lose their current biomes by 2030). In the coming century, housing densities are projected to increase in PACEs at about 82% of the rate of since 1940. The rate of climate warming in the coming century is projected to be 2.5–5.8 times higher than that measured in the past century. Underlying these averages, exposure of individual park PACEs to change agents differ in important ways. For example, parks such as Great Smoky Mountains exhibit high land use and low climate exposure, others such as Great Sand Dunes exhibit low land use and high climate exposure, and a few such as Point Reyes exhibit high exposure on both axes. The cumulative and synergistic effects of such changes in land use, invasives, and climate are expected to dramatically impact ecosystem function and biodiversity in national parks. These results are foundational to developing effective adaptation strategies and suggest policies to better safeguard parks under broad-scale environmental change

Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach

Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species’ niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species’ niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence–absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981–2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and – in some cases – highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species’ distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas.Keywords: genetic neighborhood, species distribution modeling, functional connectivity, Random Forest, realized niche, American pika, Ochotona princeps, National Park

An RCT to Increase Breast and Colorectal Cancer Screening

Introduction Adherence to breast and colorectal cancer screenings reduce mortality from these cancers, yet screening rates remain suboptimal. This 2 × 2 RCT compared 3 theory-based interventions to usual care to simultaneously increase breast and colon cancer screening in women who were nonadherent to both screenings at study entry. Design RCT. Setting/participants Women (n=692) who were nonadherent to both breast and colon cancer screenings and aged 51–75 years were recruited. Enrollment, intervention delivery, and data collection were completed between 2013 and 2017, and data analyzed in 2018. Intervention The randomized intervention included the following 4 groups: 3 intervention arms (personally tailored messages using a web-based intervention, phone delivery by a trained navigator, or both) compared with usual care. Women at an average risk for colon cancer were allowed to select either colonoscopy or stool test as their preferred colon cancer screening. Mammography was promoted for breast cancer screening. Main outcome measures Outcome data at 6 months included self-report and medical records for screening activity. Results All intervention arms significantly increased receipt of either a mammogram or stool test compared with control (web: p<0.0249, phone: p<0.0001, web + phone: p<0.0001). When considering receipt of both mammogram and stool test, all intervention arms were significantly different from usual care (web: p<0.0249, phone: p<0.0003, web + phone: p<0.0001). In addition, women who were adherent to mammography had a 4.5 times greater odds of becoming adherent to colonoscopy. Conclusions The tailored intervention simultaneously supporting both breast and colon cancer screenings significantly improved rates of obtaining one of the screenings and increased receipt of both tests

Integrated genomics and proteomics define huntingtin CAG length-dependent networks in mice.

To gain insight into how mutant huntingtin (mHtt) CAG repeat length modifies Huntington's disease (HD) pathogenesis, we profiled mRNA in over 600 brain and peripheral tissue samples from HD knock-in mice with increasing CAG repeat lengths. We found repeat length-dependent transcriptional signatures to be prominent in the striatum, less so in cortex, and minimal in the liver. Coexpression network analyses revealed 13 striatal and 5 cortical modules that correlated highly with CAG length and age, and that were preserved in HD models and sometimes in patients. Top striatal modules implicated mHtt CAG length and age in graded impairment in the expression of identity genes for striatal medium spiny neurons and in dysregulation of cyclic AMP signaling, cell death and protocadherin genes. We used proteomics to confirm 790 genes and 5 striatal modules with CAG length-dependent dysregulation at the protein level, and validated 22 striatal module genes as modifiers of mHtt toxicities in vivo

Ring distributions leading to species formation: a global topographic analysis of geographic barriers associated with ring species

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the mid 20^thcentury, Ernst Mayr and Theodosius Dobzhansky championed the significance of circular overlaps or ring species as the perfect demonstration of speciation, yet in the over 50 years since, only a handful of such taxa are known. We developed a topographic model to evaluate whether the geographic barriers that favor processes leading to ring species are common or rare, and to predict where other candidate ring barriers might be found.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 952,147 geographic barriers identified on the planet, only about 1% are topographically similar to barriers associated with known ring taxa, with most of the likely candidates occurring in under-studied parts of the world (for example, marine environments, tropical latitudes). Predicted barriers separate into two distinct categories: (i) single cohesive barriers (< 50,000 km²), associated with taxa that differentiate at smaller spatial scales (salamander: <it>Ensatina eschscholtzii</it>; tree: <it>Acacia karroo</it>); and (ii) composite barriers - formed by groups of barriers (each 184,000 to 1.7 million km²) in close geographic proximity (totaling 1.9 to 2.3 million km²) - associated with taxa that differentiate at larger spatial scales (birds: <it>Phylloscopus trochiloide</it>s and <it>Larus </it>(sp. <it>argentatus </it>and <it>fuscus</it>)). When evaluated globally, we find a large number of cohesive barriers that are topographically similar to those associated with known ring taxa. Yet, compared to cohesive barriers, an order of magnitude fewer composite barriers are similar to those that favor ring divergence in species with higher dispersal.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>While these findings confirm that the topographic conditions that favor evolutionary processes leading to ring speciation are, in fact, rare, they also suggest that many understudied natural systems could provide valuable demonstrations of continuous divergence towards the formation of new species. Distinct advantages of the model are that it (i) requires no <it>a priori </it>information on the relative importance of features that define barriers, (ii) can be replicated using any kind of continuously distributed environmental variable, and (iii) generates spatially explicit hypotheses of geographic species formation. The methods developed here - combined with study of the geographical ecology and genetics of taxa in their environments - should enable recognition of ring species phenomena throughout the world.</p