Is the even distribution of insecticide-treated cattle essential for tsetse control? Modelling the impact of baits in heterogeneous environments

Background: Eliminating Rhodesian sleeping sickness, the zoonotic form of Human African Trypanosomiasis, can be achieved only through interventions against the vectors, species of tsetse (Glossina). The use of insecticide-treated cattle is the most cost-effective method of controlling tsetse but its impact might be compromised by the patchy distribution of livestock. A deterministic simulation model was used to analyse the effects of spatial heterogeneities in habitat and baits (insecticide-treated cattle and targets) on the distribution and abundance of tsetse. Methodology/Principal Findings: The simulated area comprised an operational block extending 32 km from an area of good habitat from which tsetse might invade. Within the operational block, habitat comprised good areas mixed with poor ones where survival probabilities and population densities were lower. In good habitat, the natural daily mortalities of adults averaged 6.14% for males and 3.07% for females; the population grew 8.46in a year following a 90% reduction in densities of adults and pupae, but expired when the population density of males was reduced to <0.1/km2; daily movement of adults averaged 249 m for males and 367 m for females. Baits were placed throughout the operational area, or patchily to simulate uneven distributions of cattle and targets. Gaps of 2–3 km between baits were inconsequential provided the average imposed mortality per km2 across the entire operational area was maintained. Leaving gaps 5–7 km wide inside an area where baits killed 10% per day delayed effective control by 4–11 years. Corrective measures that put a few baits within the gaps were more effective than deploying extra baits on the edges. Conclusions/Significance: The uneven distribution of cattle within settled areas is unlikely to compromise the impact of insecticide-treated cattle on tsetse. However, where areas of >3 km wide are cattle-free then insecticide-treated targets should be deployed to compensate for the lack of cattle

Prevention of anxiety and depression in the age group of 75 years and over: a randomised controlled trial testing the feasibility and effectiveness of a generic stepped care programme among elderly community residents at high risk of developing anxiety and depression versus usual care [ISRCTN26474556]

BACKGROUND: In frail elderly, the effects of depression and anxiety are deep encroaching. Indicated prevention studies, aimed at subjects with subthreshold disorder, have shown that well designed interventions are capable of reducing the incidence of depression and anxiety. In this randomised prevention trial for elderly, living in the community and suffering from subthreshold depression and anxiety, a stepped care programme was put together to be tested versus usual (GP) care. METHODS/DESIGN: Design: randomised controlled trial. (See figure 1: organisation chart) together with two other projects, this project is part of a national consortium that investigates the prevention of anxiety and depressive disorders in later life using a stepped care programme. The three projects have their own particular focus. This project is aimed at elderly living in the community. Inclusion: subjects with a high risk for depression and anxiety without clinical evidence of these syndromes. The participants are 75 years of age and over and have subthreshold symptoms of depression and or anxiety: they score above the cut-off point on the self-report Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale, but the criteria for a major depressive disorder or anxiety disorder (panic disorder, agoraphobia, social phobia, generalized anxiety disorder) according to a validated interview, the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) are not fulfilled. Outcomes: primary outcome: incidence of a depressive or anxiety disorder over a period of two years (MINI); secondary outcome: a positive influence of the intervention, a stepped care programme, on symptoms of depression and anxiety and on quality of life as assessed with the CES D, the HADS A and the SF36 respectively (i.e. stabilisation or improvement of symptoms) [see table 1]. Measurements: Take place at baseline and at 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24 months. Trained independent evaluators assess depression and anxiety status, the primary end point (6, 12, 18, 24 months) [see table 2]. DISCUSSION: Late-life depression and anxiety are characterised by high prevalence, unfavourable prognosis, reduced quality of life, excess mortality and substantial societal costs. No health service, however well equipped, will be able to effectively treat all elderly with depression and anxiety. Therefore, development of (cost) effective means to prevent these disorders is very important

Optimal strategies for controlling riverine tsetse flies using targets: a modelling study

Background: Tsetse flies occur in much of sub-Saharan Africa where they transmit the trypanosomes that cause the diseases of sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in livestock. One of the most economical and effective methods of tsetse control is the use of insecticide-treated screens, called targets, that simulate hosts. Targets have been ~1m2, but recently it was shown that those tsetse that occupy riverine situations, and which are the main vectors of sleeping sickness, respond well to targets only ~0.06m2. The cheapness of these tiny targets suggests the need to reconsider what intensity and duration of target deployments comprise the most cost-effective strategy in various riverine habitats. Methodology/Principal Findings: A deterministic model, written in Excel spreadsheets and managed by Visual Basic for Applications, simulated the births, deaths and movement of tsetse confined to a strip of riverine vegetation composed of segments of habitat in which the tsetse population was either selfsustaining, or not sustainable unless supplemented by immigrants. Results suggested that in many situations the use of tiny targets at high density for just a few months per year would be the most cost-effective strategy for rapidly reducing tsetse densities by the ~90% expected to have a great impact on the incidence of sleeping sickness. Local elimination of tsetse becomes feasible when targets are deployed in isolated situations, or where the only invasion occurs from populations that are not self-sustaining. Conclusion/Significance: Seasonal use of tiny targets deserves field trials. The ability to recognise habitat that contains tsetse populations which are not self-sustaining could improve the planning of all methods of tsetse control, against any species, in riverine, savannah or forest situations. Criteria to assist such recognition are suggested

The benefits and harms of different extents of lymph node dissection during radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer: a systematic review

Context: There is controversy regarding the therapeutic role of pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer (PCa). Objective: To systematically review the relevant literature assessing the relative benefits and harms of PLND for oncological and non-oncological outcomes in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy for PCa. Evidence acquisition: MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched up to December 2015. Comparative studies evaluating no PLND, limited, standard, and (super)-extended PLND that reported oncological and non-oncological outcomes were included. Risk-of-bias and confounding assessments were performed. A narrative synthesis was undertaken. Evidence synthesis: Overall, 66 studies recruiting a total of 275,269 patients were included (44 full-text articles and 22 conference abstracts). Oncological outcomes were addressed by 29 studies, one of which was a randomized clinical trial (RCT). Non-oncological outcomes were addressed by 43 studies, three of which were RCTs. There were high risks of bias and confounding in most studies. Conflicting results emerged when comparing biochemical and clinical recurrence, while no significant differences were observed among groups for survival. Conversely, the majority of studies showed that the more extensive the PLND, the greater the adverse outcomes in terms of operating time, blood loss, length of stay, and postoperative complications. No significant differences were observed in terms of urinary continence and erectile function recovery. Conclusions: Although representing the most accurate staging procedure, PLND and its extension are associated with worse intraoperative and perioperative outcomes, whereas a direct therapeutic effect is still not evident from the current literature. The current poor quality of evidence indicates the need for robust and adequately powered clinical trials. Patient summary: Based on a comprehensive review of the literature, this article summarizes the benefits and harms of removing lymph nodes during surgery to remove the prostate because of PCa. Although the quality of the data from the studies was poor, the review suggests that lymph node removal may not have any direct benefit on cancer outcomes and may instead result in more complications. Nevertheless, the procedure remains justified because it enables accurate assessment of cancer spread

Modeling the Control of Trypanosomiasis Using Trypanocides or Insecticide-Treated Livestock

In Uganda, cattle are an important reservoir for Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense, the causative agent of Rhodesian sleeping sickness (human African trypanosomiasis), transmitted by tsetse flies Glossina fuscipes fuscipes, which feed on cattle, humans, and wild vertebrates, particularly monitor lizards. Trypanosomiasis can be controlled by treating livestock with trypanocides or insecticide – killing parasites or vectors, respectively. Mathematical modeling of trypanosomiasis was used to compare the impact of drug- and insecticide-based interventions on R0 with varying densities of cattle, humans and wild hosts. Intervention impact changes with the number of cattle treated and the proportion of bloodmeals tsetse take from cattle. R0 was always reduced more by treating cattle with insecticide rather than trypanocides. In the absence of wild hosts, the model suggests that control of sleeping sickness (R0<1) could be achieved by treating ∼65% of cattle with trypanocides or ∼20% with insecticide. Required coverage increases as wild mammals provide increasing proportion of tsetse bloodmeals: if 60% of non-human bloodmeals are from wild hosts then all cattle have to be treated with insecticide. Conversely, it is reduced if lizards, which do not harbor trypanosomes, are important hosts and/or if insecticides are used at a scale where tsetse numbers decline

Prognostic Factors of Long Term Disability Due to Mental Disorders: A Systematic Review

Introduction In the past few decades, mental health problems have increasingly contributed to sickness absence and long-term disability. However, little is known about prognostic factors of return to work (RTW) and disability of persons already on sick leave due to mental health problems. Understanding these factors may help to develop effective prevention and intervention strategies to shorten the duration of disability and facilitate RTW. Method We reviewed systematically current scientific evidence about prognostic factors for mental health related long term disability, RTW and symptom recovery. Searching PubMed, PsycINFO, Embase, Cinahl and Business Source Premier, we selected articles with a publication date from January 1990 to March 2009, describing longitudinal cohort studies with a follow-up period of at least 1 year. Participants were persons on sick leave or receiving disability benefit at baseline. We assessed the methodological quality of included studies using an established criteria list. Consistent findings in at least two high quality studies were defined as strong evidence and positive findings in one high quality study were defined as limited evidence. Results Out of 796 studies, we included seven articles, all of high methodological quality describing a range of prognostic factors, according to the ICF-model categorized as health-related, personal and external factors. We found strong evidence that older age (>50 years) is associated with continuing disability and longer time to RTW. There is limited evidence for the association of other personal factors (gender, education, history of previous sickness absence, negative recovery expectation, socio-economic status), health related (stress-related and shoulder/back pain, depression/anxiety disorder) and external i.e., job-related factors (unemployment, quality and continuity of occupational care, supervisor behavior) with disability and RTW. We found limited evidence for the association of personal/external factors (education, sole breadwinner, partial/full RTW, changing work tasks) with symptom recovery. Conclusion This systematic review identifies a number of prognostic factors, some more or less consistent with findings in related literature (mental health factors, age, history of previous sickness absence, negative recovery expectation, socio-economic status, unemployment, quality and continuity of occupational care), while other prognostic factors (gender, level of education, sole breadwinner, supervisor support) conflict with existing evidence. There is still great need for research on modifiable prognostic factors of continuing disability and RTW among benefit claimants with mental health problems. Recommendations are made as to directions and methodological quality of further research, i.e., prognostic cohort studies

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of computerised cognitive behavioural therapy for depression in primary care: Design of a randomised trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Major depression is a common mental health problem in the general population, associated with a substantial impact on quality of life and societal costs. However, many depressed patients in primary care do not receive the care they need. Reason for this is that pharmacotherapy is only effective in severely depressed patients and psychological treatments in primary care are scarce and costly. A more feasible treatment in primary care might be computerised cognitive behavioural therapy. This can be a self-help computer program based on the principles of cognitive behavioural therapy. Although previous studies suggest that computerised cognitive behavioural therapy is effective, more research is necessary. Therefore, the objective of the current study is to evaluate the (cost-) effectiveness of online computerised cognitive behavioural therapy for depression in primary care.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>In a randomised trial we will compare (a) computerised cognitive behavioural therapy with (b) treatment as usual by a GP, and (c) computerised cognitive behavioural therapy in combination with usual GP care. Three hundred mild to moderately depressed patients (aged 18–65) will be recruited in the general population by means of a large-scale Internet-based screening (<it>N </it>= 200,000). Patients will be randomly allocated to one of the three treatment groups. Primary outcome measure of the clinical evaluation is the severity of depression. Other outcomes include psychological distress, social functioning, and dysfunctional beliefs. The economic evaluation will be performed from a societal perspective, in which all costs will be related to clinical effectiveness and health-related quality of life. All outcome assessments will take place on the Internet at baseline, two, three, six, nine, and twelve months. Costs are measured on a monthly basis. A time horizon of one year will be used without long-term extrapolation of either costs or quality of life.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Although computerised cognitive behavioural therapy is a promising treatment for depression in primary care, more research is needed. The effectiveness of online computerised cognitive behavioural therapy without support remains to be evaluated as well as the effects of computerised cognitive behavioural therapy in combination with usual GP care. Economic evaluation is also needed. Methodological strengths and weaknesses are discussed.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>The study has been registered at the Netherlands Trial Register, part of the Dutch Cochrane Centre (ISRCTN47481236).</p

Overview of data-synthesis in systematic reviews of studies on outcome prediction models

Background: Many prognostic models have been developed. Different types of models, i.e. prognostic factor and outcome prediction studies, serve different purposes, which should be reflected in how the results are summarized in reviews. Therefore we set out to investigate how authors of reviews synthesize and report the results of primary outcome prediction studies. Methods: Outcome prediction reviews published in MEDLINE between October 2005 and March 2011 were eligible and 127 Systematic reviews with the aim to summarize outcome prediction studies written in English were identified for inclusion. Characteristics of the reviews and the primary studies that were included were independently assessed by 2 review authors, using standardized forms. Results: After consensus meetings a total of 50 systematic reviews that met the inclusion criteria were included. The type of primary studies included (prognostic factor or outcome prediction) was unclear in two-thirds of the reviews. A minority of the reviews reported univariable or multivariable point estimates and measures of dispersion from the primary studies. Moreover, the variables considered for outcome prediction model development were often not reported, or were unclear. In most reviews there was no information about model performance. Quantitative analysis was performed in 10 reviews, and 49 reviews assessed the primary studies qualitatively. In both analyses types a range of different methods was used to present the results of the outcome prediction studies. Conclusions: Different methods are applied to synthesize primary study results but quantitative analysis is rarely performed. The description of its objectives and of the primary studies is suboptimal and performance parameters of the outcome prediction models are rarely mentioned. The poor reporting and the wide variety of data synthesis strategies are prone to influence the conclusions of outcome prediction reviews. Therefore, there is much room for improvement in reviews of outcome prediction studies. (aut.ref.

Reply: ‘Comment on Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease risk in chemotherapy-treated testicular germ cell tumour survivors’

Clinical Oncolog