Multi-output multilevel best linear unbiased estimators via semidefinite programming

Multifidelity forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems often involve multiple quantities of interest and heterogeneous models (e.g., different grids, equations, dimensions, physics, surrogate and reduced-order models). While computational efficiency is key in this context, multi-output strategies in multilevel/multifidelity methods are either sub-optimal or non-existent. In this paper we extend multilevel best linear unbiased estimators (MLBLUE) to multi-output forward UQ problems and we present new semidefinite programming formulations for their optimal setup. Not only do these formulations yield the optimal number of samples required, but also the optimal selection of low-fidelity models to use. While existing MLBLUE approaches are single-output only and require a non-trivial nonlinear optimization procedure, the new multi-output formulations can be solved reliably and efficiently. We demonstrate the efficacy of the new methods and formulations in practical UQ problems with model heterogeneity.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, 3 table

Evaluation and pharmacovigilance of projects promoting cultivation and local use of Artemisia annua for malaria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are promoting the use of <it>Artemisia annua </it>teas as a home-based treatment for malaria in situations where conventional treatments are not available. There has been controversy about the effectiveness and safety of this approach, but no pharmacovigilance studies or evaluations have been published to date.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>A questionnaire about the cultivation of <it>A. annua</it>, treatment of patients, and side-effects observed, was sent to partners of the NGO Anamed in Kenya and Uganda. Some of the respondents were then selected purposively for more in-depth semi-structured interviews.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Eighteen partners in Kenya and 21 in Uganda responded. 49% reported difficulties in growing the plant, mainly due to drought. Overall about 3,000 cases of presumed malaria had been treated with <it>A. annua </it>teas in the previous year, of which about 250 were in children and 54 were in women in the first trimester of pregnancy. The commonest problem observed in children was poor compliance due to the bitter taste, which was improved by the addition of sugar or honey. Two miscarriages were reported in pregnant patients. Only four respondents reported side-effects in other patients, the commonest of which was vomiting. 51% of respondents had started using <it>A. annua </it>tea to treat illnesses other than malaria.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Local cultivation and preparation of <it>A. annua </it>are feasible where growing conditions are appropriate. Few adverse events were reported even in children and pregnant women. Where ACT is in short supply, it would make sense to save it for young children, while using <it>A. annua </it>infusions to treat older patients who are at lower risk. An ongoing pharmacovigilance system is needed to facilitate reporting of any adverse events.</p

Pre-hospital risk factors for inpatient death from severe febrile illness in Malian children.

BACKGROUND: Inpatient case fatality from severe malaria remains high in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The majority of these deaths occur within 24 hours of admission, suggesting that pre-hospital management may have an impact on the risk of case fatality. METHODS: Prospective cohort study, including questionnaire about pre-hospital treatment, of all 437 patients admitted with severe febrile illness (presumed to be severe malaria) to the paediatric ward in Sikasso Regional Hospital, Mali, in a two-month period. FINDINGS: The case fatality rate was 17.4%. Coma, hypoglycaemia and respiratory distress at admission were associated with significantly higher mortality. In multiple logistic regression models and in a survival analysis to examine pre-admission risk factors for case fatality, the only consistent and significant risk factor was sex. Girls were twice as likely to die as boys (AOR 2.00, 95% CI 1.08-3.70). There was a wide variety of pre-hospital treatments used, both modern and traditional. None had a consistent impact on the risk of death across different analyses. Reported use of traditional treatments was not associated with post-admission outcome. INTERPRETATION: Aside from well-recognised markers of severity, the main risk factor for death in this study was female sex, but this study cannot determine the reason why. Differences in pre-hospital treatments were not associated with case fatality

Differential insulitic profiles determine the extent of beta cell destruction and the age at onset of type 1 diabetes

Published onlineJOURNAL ARTICLEType 1 diabetes (T1D) results from a T-cell mediated destruction of pancreatic beta cells following the infiltration of leukocytes (including CD8+, CD4+ and CD20+ cells) into and around pancreatic islets ("insulitis"). Recently, we reported that two distinct patterns of insulitis occur in patients with recent-onset T1D from the UK and that these differ principally in the proportion of infiltrating CD20+ B-cells (designated "CD20Hi" and "CD20Lo" respectively). We have now extended this analysis to include patients from the nPOD (USA) and DiViD (Norway) cohorts and confirm that the two profiles of insulitis occur more widely. Moreover, we show that patients can be directly stratified according to their insulitic profile and that those receiving a diagnosis before the age of 7 years always display the CD20Hi profile. By contrast, individuals diagnosed beyond the age of 13 years are uniformly defined as CD20Lo. This implies that the two forms of insulitis are differentially aggressive and that patients with a CD20Hi profile lose their beta cells at a more rapid rate. In support of this, we also find that the proportion of residual insulin-containing islets (ICIs) increases in parallel with age at onset of T1D. Importantly, those diagnosed in, or beyond, their teenage years retain ∼40% ICIs at diagnosis, implying that a functional deficit rather than absolute beta cell loss may be causal for disease onset in these patients. We conclude that appropriate patient stratification will be critical for correct interpretation of the outcomes of intervention therapies targeted to islet-infiltrating immune cells in T1D

Midlife muscle strength and human longevity up to age 100 years: a 44-year prospective study among a decedent cohort

We studied prospectively the midlife handgrip strength, living habits, and parents’ longevity as predictors of length of life up to becoming a centenarian. The participants were 2,239 men from the Honolulu Heart Program/Honolulu–Asia Aging Study who were born before the end of June 1909 and who took part in baseline physical assessment in 1965–1968, when they were 56–68 years old. Deaths were followed until the end of June 2009 for 44 years with complete ascertainment. Longevity was categorized as centenarian (≥100 years, n = 47), nonagenarian (90–99 years, n = 545), octogenarian (80–89 years, n = 847), and ≤79 years (n = 801, reference). The average survival after baseline was 20.8 years (SD = 9.62). Compared with people who died at the age of ≤79 years, centenarians belonged 2.5 times (odds ratio (OR) = 2.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.23–5.10) more often to the highest third of grip strength in midlife, were never smokers (OR = 5.75 95% CI = 3.06–10.80), had participated in physical activity outside work (OR = 1.13 per daily hour, 95% CI = 1.02–1.25), and had a long-lived mother (≥80 vs. ≤60 years, OR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.06–5.01). Associations for nonagenarians and octogenarians were parallel, but weaker. Multivariate modeling showed that mother’s longevity and offspring’s grip strength operated through the same or overlapping pathway to longevity. High midlife grip strength and long-lived mother may indicate resilience to aging, which, combined with healthy lifestyle, increases the probability of extreme longevity

Evaluating the taxa that provide shared pollination services across multiple crops and regions

Many pollinator species visit multiple crops in multiple regions, yet we know little about their pollination service provisioning at local and regional scales. We investigated the floral visitors (n = 13,200), their effectiveness (n = 1718 single visits) and response to landscape composition across three crops avocado, mango and macadamia within a single growing region (1 year), a single crop (3 years) and across different growing regions in multiple years. In total, eight wild visitor groups were shared across all three crops. The network was dominated by three pollinators, two bees (Apis mellifera and Tetragonula spp.) and a fly, Stomorhina discolor. The visitation network for the three crops was relatively generalised but with the addition of pollen deposition data, specialisation increased. Sixteen managed and wild taxa were consistently present across three years in avocado, yet their contribution to annual network structure varied. Node specialisation (d’) analyses indicated many individual orchard sites across each of the networks were significantly more specialised compared to that predicted by null models, suggesting the presence of site-specific factors driving these patterns. Identifying the taxa shared across multiple crops, regions and years will facilitate the development of specific pollinator management strategies to optimize crop pollination services in horticultural systems

Evidence of increased islet cell proliferation in patients with recent-onset type 1 diabetes.

addresses: Institute of Biomedical and Clinical Science, Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry (University of Exeter), Tamar Science Park, Derriford, Plymouth, UK.The final publication is available at link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00125-010-1817-6In adults, the rate of beta cell replication is normally very low, but recent evidence suggests that it may increase during insulitis. We therefore studied tissue from donors with recent-onset type 1 diabetes to establish whether islet cell proliferation is increased during the disease process

A Multifaceted Mathematical Approach for Complex Systems

Applied mathematics has an important role to play in developing the tools needed for the analysis, simulation, and optimization of complex problems. These efforts require the development of the mathematical foundations for scientific discovery, engineering design, and risk analysis based on a sound integrated approach for the understanding of complex systems. However, maximizing the impact of applied mathematics on these challenges requires a novel perspective on approaching the mathematical enterprise. Previous reports that have surveyed the DOE&#x27;s research needs in applied mathematics have played a key role in defining research directions with the community. Although these reports have had significant impact, accurately assessing current research needs requires an evaluation of today&#x27;s challenges against the backdrop of recent advances in applied mathematics and computing. To address these needs, the DOE Applied Mathematics Program sponsored a Workshop for Mathematics for the Analysis, Simulation and Optimization of Complex Systems on September 13-14, 2011. The workshop had approximately 50 participants from both the national labs and academia. The goal of the workshop was to identify new research areas in applied mathematics that will complement and enhance the existing DOE ASCR Applied Mathematics Program efforts that are needed to address problems associated with complex systems. This report describes recommendations from the workshop and subsequent analysis of the workshop findings by the organizing committee

TFOS Lifestyle: Impact of nutrition on the ocular surface: TFOS Lifestyle Workshop: Nutrition report

Nutrients, required by human bodies to perform life-sustaining functions, are obtained from the diet. They are broadly classified into macronutrients (carbohydrates, lipids, and proteins), micronutrients (vitamins and minerals) and water. All nutrients serve as a source of energy, provide structural support to the body and/or regulate the chemical processes of the body. Food and drinks also consist of non-nutrients that may be beneficial (e.g., antioxidants) or harmful (e.g., dyes or preservatives added to processed foods) to the body and the ocular surface. There is also a complex interplay between systemic disorders and an individual's nutritional status. Changes in the gut microbiome may lead to alterations at the ocular surface. Poor nutrition may exacerbate select systemic conditions. Similarly, certain systemic conditions may affect the uptake, processing and distribution of nutrients by the body. These disorders may lead to deficiencies in micro- and macro-nutrients that are important in maintaining ocular surface health. Medications used to treat these conditions may also cause ocular surface changes. The prevalence of nutrition-related chronic diseases is climbing worldwide. This report sought to review the evidence supporting the impact of nutrition on the ocular surface, either directly or as a consequence of the chronic diseases that result. To address a key question, a systematic review investigated the effects of intentional food restriction on ocular surface health; of the 25 included studies, most investigated Ramadan fasting (56%), followed by bariatric surgery (16%), anorexia nervosa (16%), but none were judged to be of high quality, with no randomized-controlled trials

Genetic Studies of Sulfadiazine-resistant and Methionine-requiring \u3cem\u3eNeisseria\u3c/em\u3e Isolated From Clinical Material

Deoxyribonucleate (DNA) preparations were extracted from Neisseria meningitidis (four isolates from spinal fluid and blood) and N. gonorrhoeae strains, all of which were resistant to sulfadiazine upon primary isolation. These DNA preparations, together with others from in vitro mutants of N. meningitidis and N. perflava, were examined in transformation tests by using as recipient a drug-susceptible strain of N. meningitidis (Ne 15 Sul-s Met+) which was able to grow in a methionine-free defined medium. The sulfadiazine resistance typical of each donor was introduced into the uniform constitution of this recipient. Production of p-aminobenzoic acid was not significantly altered thereby. Transformants elicited by DNA from the N. meningitidis clinical isolates were resistant to at least 200 μg of sulfadiazine/ml, and did not show a requirement for methionine (Sul-r Met+). DNA from six strains of N. gonorrhoeae, which were isolated during the period of therapeutic use of sulfonamides, conveyed lower degrees of resistance and, invariably, a concurrent methionine requirement (Sul-r/Met−). The requirement of these transformants, and that of in vitro mutants selected on sulfadiazine-agar, was satisfied by methionine, but not by vitamin B12, homocysteine, cystathionine, homoserine, or cysteine. Sul-r Met+ and Sul-r/Met− loci could coexist in the same genome, but were segregated during transformation. On the other hand, the dual Sul-r/Met− properties were not separated by recombination, but were eliminated together. DNA from various Sul-r/Met− clones tested against recipients having nonidentical Sul-r/Met− mutant sites yielded Sul-s Met+ transformants. The met locus involved is genetically complex, and will be a valuable tool for studies of genetic fine structure of members of Neisseria, and of genetic homology between species