When The Bombs Drop: Reactions to Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Sect

This article reports the results of an ethnographic study of a millennial Baha\u27i sect whose leader predicted that the world would be devastated by nuclear war on April 29, 1980. Shortly before that date we began a participant-observer study of the sect, and during the following eight months we supplemented our observations by interviewing members and defectors in the four states where the group\u27s leader had a substantial following. The purpose of the investigation was to replicate the classic study of disconfirmed prophecy reported in When Prophecy Fails by Festinger, Riecken, and Schachter. They found that prophetic disconfirmation was followed by an increase in conviction and heightened efforts to recruit new believers. We report contrary findings and explore social psychological factors that might account for the difference between our findings and the results of the Festinger et al. study. We argue that reactions to prophetic failure are shaped less by psychological forces than by social circumstances existing at the time of disconfirmation

BUMC Annual Report

Annual report of the Boston University Medical Center

BUMC Annual Report

Annual report of the Boston University Medical Center

A Century on the Northern Plains: the University of North Dakota at 100

This is the Centennial History of the University of North Dakota, published in 1983.https://commons.und.edu/und-books/1001/thumbnail.jp

WISE/NEOWISE Observations of Comet 103P/Hartley 2

We report results based on mid-infrared photometry of comet 103P/Hartley 2 taken during 2010 May 4-13 (when the comet was at a heliocentric distance of 2.3 AU, and an observer distance of 2.0 AU) by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Photometry of the coma at 22 μm and data from the University of Hawaii 2.2 m telescope obtained on 2010 May 22 provide constraints on the dust particle size distribution, d log n/d log m, yielding power-law slope values of alpha = –0.97 ± 0.10, steeper than that found for the inbound particle fluence during the Stardust encounter of comet 81P/Wild 2. The extracted nucleus signal at 12 μm is consistent with a body of average spherical radius of 0.6 ± 0.2 km (one standard deviation), assuming a beaming parameter of 1.2. The 4.6 μm band signal in excess of dust and nucleus reflected and thermal contributions may be attributed to carbon monoxide or carbon dioxide emission lines and provides limits and estimates of species production. Derived carbon dioxide coma production rates are 3.5(± 0.9) × 10^(24) molecules per second. Analyses of the trail signal present in the stacked image with an effective exposure time of 158.4 s yields optical-depth values near 9 × 10^(–10) at a delta mean anomaly of 0.2 deg trailing the comet nucleus, in both 12 and 22 μm bands. A minimum chi-squared analysis of the dust trail position yields a beta-parameter value of 1.0 × 10^(–4), consistent with a derived mean trail-grain diameter of 1.1/ρ cm for grains of ρ g cm^(–3) density. This leads to a total detected trail mass of at least 4 × 10^(10) ρ kg

Standard survey methods for estimating colony losses and explanatory risk factors in Apis mellifera

This chapter addresses survey methodology and questionnaire design for the collection of data pertaining to estimation of honey bee colony loss rates and identification of risk factors for colony loss. Sources of error in surveys are described. Advantages and disadvantages of different random and non-random sampling strategies and different modes of data collection are presented to enable the researcher to make an informed choice. We discuss survey and questionnaire methodology in some detail, for the purpose of raising awareness of issues to be considered during the survey design stage in order to minimise error and bias in the results. Aspects of survey design are illustrated using surveys in Scotland. Part of a standardized questionnaire is given as a further example, developed by the COLOSS working group for Monitoring and Diagnosis. Approaches to data analysis are described, focussing on estimation of loss rates. Dutch monitoring data from 2012 were used for an example of a statistical analysis with the public domain R software. We demonstrate the estimation of the overall proportion of losses and corresponding confidence interval using a quasi-binomial model to account for extra-binomial variation. We also illustrate generalized linear model fitting when incorporating a single risk factor, and derivation of relevant confidence intervals

BUMC Annual Report

Annual report of the Boston University Medical Center

Coulomb Blockade in a Coupled Nanomechanical Electron Shuttle

We demonstrate single electron shuttling through two coupled nanomechanical pendula. The pendula are realized as nanopillars etched out of the semiconductor substrate. Coulomb blockade is found at room temperature, allowing metrological applications. By controlling the mechanical shuttling frequency we are able to validate the different regimes of electron shuttling