Natural and Anthropogenic Influences on the Distribution of the Threatened Neosho Madtom in a Midwestern Warmwater Stream

We attempted to discern the contributions of physical habitat, water chemistry, nutrients, and contaminants from historic lead-zinc mining activities on the riffle-dwelling benthic fish community of the Spring River, a mid western warm water stream that originates in Missouri and flows into Kansas and Oklahoma. The Spring River has a fish community that includes the Neosho madtom Noturus placidus, a species federally listed as threatened. Although anthropogenic factors such as contaminants limited populations and densities of fishes, an integrated assessment of natural and anthropogenic factors was necessary to effectively estimate the influence of the latter. Fish populations in the Spring River, especially Neosho madtoms, seem to be limited by the presence of cadmium, lead, and zinc in water and in benthic invertebrate food sources and by physical habitat. The population density and community structure of fish in the Spring River also seem to be related to water chemistry and nutrients. Concurrently, diminished food availability may be limiting fish populations at some sites where Neosho madtoms are not found. Many of the natural factors that may be limiting Neosho madtom and other riffle-dwelling fish popUlations in the Spring River probably are characteristic of the physiographic region drained by the upper reach and many of the tributaries of the Spring River. Our results indicate that competition between the Neosho mad tom and other species within the riffle-dwelling fish community is an unlikely cause of Neosho mad tom population limitation in the Spring River

Hierarchical stochastic modelling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our downscaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model

Incorporating metapopulation Dynamics to Inform Invasive Species Management: Evaluating Bighead and Silver Carp Control Strategies in the Illinois River

1. Invasive species management can benefit from predictive models that incorporate spatially explicit demographics and dispersal to guide resource allocation decisions. 2. We used invasive bigheaded carps (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in the Illinois River, USA as a case study to create a spatially explicit model to evaluate the allocation of future management efforts. Specifically, we compared additional harvest (e.g. near the invasion front vs. source populations) and enhanced movement deterrents to meet the management goal of reducing abundance at the invasion front. 3. We found additional harvest in lower river pools (i.e. targeting source populations) more effectively limited population sizes upriver at the invasion front compared to allocating the same harvest levels near the invasion front. Likewise, decreasing passage (i.e. lock and dam structures) at the farthest, feasible downriver location limited invasion front population size more than placing movement deterrents farther upriver. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the benefits of adopting a multipronged approach for invasive species management, combining suppression of source populations with disrupting movement between source and sink populations thereby producing compounding benefits for control. Our results also demonstrate the importance of considering metapopulation dynamics for invasive species control programs when achieving long-term management goals

Incidence of Isolated Biliary Atresia during the COVID Lockdown in Europe: Results from a Collaborative Project by RARE-Liver

Background: Biliary atresia (BA) is a rare cholangiopathy where one of the proposed aetiological mechanisms is an infectious viral trigger. Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID) lockdown restrictions were implemented to reduce the transmission of infections. Strictness of lockdown varied across European countries. This study aimed to investigate if there was an association between strictness of lockdown and change in isolated BA (IBA) incidence in Europe. Methods: We approached European centres involved in the European Reference Network RARE-LIVER. We included IBA patients born between 2015 and June 2020. We calculated the number of IBA patients born per centre per month. The Stringency Index (SI) was used as lockdown strictness indicator. The association between percentage change of mean number of IBA patients born per month and the SI was assessed. Results: We included 412 IBA patients from thirteen different centres. The median number of patients per month did not change: 6 (1–15) pre-lockdown and 7 (6–9) during lockdown (p = 0.34). There was an inverse association between SI and percentage change in IBA (B = -0.73, p = 0.03). Median age at Kasai portoenterostomy (days) did not differ between time periods (51 (9–179) vs. 53 (19–126), p = 0.73). Conclusion: In this European study, a stricter COVID-lockdown was seemingly accompanied by a simultaneous larger decrease in the number of IBA patients born per month in the lockdown. Results should be interpreted with caution due to the assumptions and limitations of the analysis

Environmental influences on the occurrence of coastal sharks in estuarine waters

Long-term fisheries independent gill net surveys conducted in Texas estuaries from 1975 to 2006 were used to develop spatially explicit estuarine habitat use models for 3 coastal shark species: bull shark Carcharhinus leucas, blacktip shark C. limbatus, and bonnethead shark Sphyrna tiburo. Relationships between environmental predictors and shark distribution were investigated using boosted regression trees (BRT). Bull shark was the most abundant species (n = 5800), followed by blacktip (n = 2094), and bonnethead sharks (n = 1793). Environmental conditions influenced distribution patterns of all species and relationships were nonlinear, multivariate, and interactive. Results showed very good model performance and suggested shark distribution is most closely linked to salinity, temperature, and proximity to tidal inlets. By interpolating the BRT models, maps of the probability of capture were produced using ordinary kriging. Results showed that the central region along the Texas coast contains the most important estuarine shark habitat. This area was characterized by warm temperatures, moderate salinities, and abundant tidal inlets. Bull sharks also extended into low salinity estuaries, while blacktip and bonnethead sharks were restricted to areas near tidal passes with moderate salinities. Juvenile sharks were frequently captured, suggesting the Texas coast may constitute important nursery areas for all 3 species. The development of these spatially explicit models allows for prioritization and conservation of areas in a region that has great potential for human disturbance and climate change impacts. These results provide new insight into the habitat requirements of coastal sharks in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and practical information for managing this resource.Publishe

A LONGITUDINAL ASSESSMENT OF THE AQUATIC MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITY IN THE CHANNELIZED LOWER MISSOURI RIVER

We conducted an aquatic macroinvertebrate assessment in the channelized reach of the lower Missouri River, and used statistical analysis of individual metrics and multimetric scores to identify community response patterns and evaluate relative biological condition. We examined longitudinal site differences that are potentially associated with water quality related factors originating from the Kansas City metropolitan area, using data from coarse rock substrate in flowing water habitats (outside river bends), and depositional mud substrate in slack water habitats (dike fields). Three sites above river mile (RM) 369 in Kansas City (Nebraska City, RM = 560; St. Joseph, RM = 530; Parkville, RM = 377) and three below (Lexington, RM = 319; Glasgow, RM = 228; Hermann, RM = 94) were sampled with rock basket artificial substrates, a qualitative kicknet method, and the Petite Ponar. We also compared the performance of the methods used. A total of 132 aquatic macroinvertebrate taxa were collected from the lower Missouri River; one third of these taxa belonged to the sensitive EPOT insect orders (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Odonata, and Trichoptera). Rock baskets had the highest mean efficiency (34.1%) of the methods, and the largest number of taxa was collected by Ponar (n = 69) and kicknet (n = 69) methods. Seven of the 15 metrics calculated from rock basket data, and five of the nine metrics calculated from Ponar data showed highly significant differences (ANOVA, P \u3c 0.001) at one or more sites below Kansas City. We observed a substantial reduction in net-spinning Trichoptera in rock habitats below Kansas City (Lexington), an increase in relative dominance of Oligochaeta in depositional habitats at the next site downstream (Glasgow), and lower relative condition scores in rock habitat at Lexington and depositional habitat at Glasgow. Collectively, these data indicate that some urban-related impacts on the aquatic macroinvertebrate community are occurring. Our results suggest that the methods and assessment framework we used in this study could be successfully applied on a larger scale with concurrent water and sediment chemistry to validate metrics, establish impairment levels, and develop a specific macroinvertebrate community index for the lower Missouri River.We recommend accomplishing this with longitudinal multi-habitat sampling at a larger number of sites related to all potential sources of impairment, including major tributaries, urban areas, and point sources

Ecological prediction with nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional data models

Time-frequency analysis has become a fundamental component of many scientific inquiries. Due to improvements in technology, the amount of high-frequency signals that are collected for ecological and other scientific processes is increasing at a dramatic rate. In order to facilitate the use of these data in ecological prediction, we introduce a class of nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional models that can identify important features of each signal as well as the interaction of signals corresponding to the response variable of interest. Our methodology is of independent interest and utilizes stochastic search variable selection to improve model selection and performs model averaging to enhance prediction. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through simulation and by application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River

An empirical test of the ‘shark nursery area concept’ in Texas bays using a long-term fisheries-independent data set

Using a long-term fisheries-independent data set, we tested the ‘shark nursery area concept’ proposed by Heupel et al. (2007) with the suggested working assumptions that a shark nursery habitat would: (1) have an abundance of immature sharks greater than the mean abundance across all habitats where they occur; (2) be used by sharks repeatedly through time (years); and (3) see immature sharks remaining within the habitat for extended periods of time. We tested this concept using young-of-the-year (age 0) and juvenile (age 1+ yr) bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas from gill-net surveys conducted in Texas bays from 1976 to 2006 to estimate the potential nursery function of 9 coastal bays. Of the 9 bay systems considered as potential nursery habitat, only Matagorda Bay satisfied all 3 criteria for young-of-the-year bull sharks. Both Matagorda and San Antonio Bays met the criteria for juvenile bull sharks. Through these analyses we examined the utility of this approach for characterizing nursery areas and we also describe some practical considerations, such as the influence of the temporal or spatial scales considered when applying the nursery role concept to shark populations.Publishe

Hierarchical stochastic modelling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our downscaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.This article is published as Mark L. Wildhaber, Christopher K. Wikle, Edward H. Moran, Christopher J. Anderson, Kristie J. Franz and Rima Dey Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 408, 119-145, 12 October 2015, doi: 10.1144/SP408.11.</p