Seeing the landscape for the trees: metrics to guide riparian shade management in river catchments

Rising water temperature (Tw) due to anthropogenic climate change may have serious consequences for river ecosystems. Conservation and/or expansion of riparian shade could counter warming and buy time for ecosystems to adapt. However, sensitivity of river reaches to direct solar radiation is highly heterogeneous in space and time, so benefits of shading are also expected to be site specific. We use a network of high-resolution temperature measurements from two upland rivers in the UK, in conjunction with topographic shade modelling, to assess the relative significance of landscape and riparian shade to the thermal behaviour of river reaches. Trees occupy 7% of the study catchments (comparable with the UK national average) yet shade covers 52% of the area and is concentrated along river corridors. Riparian shade is most beneficial for managing Tw at distances 5 to 20 km downstream from the source of the rivers where discharge is modest, flow is dominated by near-surface hydrological pathways, there is a wide floodplain with little landscape shade, and where cumulative solar exposure times are sufficient to affect Tw. For the rivers studied, we find that approximately 0.5 km of complete shade is necessary to off-set Tw by 1°C during July (the month with peak Tw) at a headwater site; whereas 1.1 km of shade is required 25 km downstream. Further research is needed to assess the integrated effect of future changes in air temperature, sunshine duration, direct solar radiation and downward diffuse radiation on Tw to help tree planting schemes achieve intended outcomes

Wettest December in the Lake District for over 200 years

Wettest December in the Lake District for over 200 year

HydroDetect: The Identification and Assessment of Climate Change Indicators for an Irish Reference Network of River Flow Stations - an Overview

This paper provides an overview of key findings from the EPA funded HydroDetect project which establishes an Irish Reference Network (IRN) of river flow gauges for monitoring and detecting climate driven trends. The flow archive from 35 hydrometric stations has an average record length of 40 years and draws from the strengths of the existing national hydrometric network. Using criteria based on the quality of flow records and minimisation of artificial influences and land-use change, complimented by expert judgement, the IRN is a valuable resource facilitating more strategic monitoring of climate driven variability and change in hydrological indicators and enabling more confident attribution of detected trends. Here an analysis of trends in mean and high flows for stations in the IRN is presented, with the spatial distribution of trends across the network examined for the period 1976-2009. The following key findings emerge. While there is considerable evidence of change in the IRN, it is difficult at this point in time to attribute these to anthropogenic greenhouse gas induced climate change. Indeed some of the trends identified – decreases in shorter records in winter mean flows and increases in summer flows – are not consistent with expected changes as simulated by Global Climate Models. This should not be surprising given the large variability of river flows relative to climate change signals at this point. Trends in Irish river flows are strongly correlated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). The sensitivity and response of the NAO to greenhouse gas forcing will have obvious implications for Irish hydrology; however the question remains open as to the impact that greenhouse gas forcing has had on recent behaviour of the NAO and how it is likely to respond to future forcing. While it remains challenging to identify anthropogenic climate change signals at the catchment scale due to large natural variability and therefore a low signal to noise ratio, there is high potential for identifying sentinel stations and indicators within the IRN for early detection of climate change signals. These findings heighten the importance of the IRN for monitoring and detecting climate change signals at the catchment scale, for tracking the emergence of signals relative to natural variability and for providing information, free from confounding factors, for validating output from climate change impact assessments and developing adaptation policies

A systematic assessment of drought termination in the United Kingdom

Drought termination can be associated with dramatic transitions from drought to flooding. Greater attention may be given to these newsworthy and memorable events, but drought terminations that proceed gradually also pose challenges for water resource managers. This paper defines drought termination as a distinctive phase of the event. Using observed river flow records for 52 UK catchments, a more systematic and objective approach for detecting drought terminations is demonstrated. The parameters of the approach are informed by a sensitivity analysis that ensures a focus on terminations of multi-season to multi-year droughts. The resulting inventory of 467 drought terminations provides an unprecedented historical perspective on this phenomenon in the UK. Nationally and regionally coherent drought termination events are identifiable, although their characteristics vary both between and within major episodes. Contrasting drought termination events in 1995–1998 and 2009–2012 are examined in greater depth. The data are also used to assess potential linkages between metrics of drought termination and catchment properties. The duration of drought termination is moderately negatively correlated with elevation (rs =  −0.47) and catchment average rainfall (rs =  −0.42), suggesting that wetter catchments in upland areas of the UK tend to experience shorter drought terminations. More urbanized catchments tend to have gradual drought terminations (contrary to expectations of flashy hydrological response in such areas), although this may also reflect the type of catchments typical of lowland England. Significant correlations are found between the duration of the drought development phase and both the duration (rs =  −0.29) and rate (rs =  0.28) of drought termination. This suggests that prolonged drought development phases tend to be followed by shorter and more abrupt drought terminations. The inventory helps to place individual events within a long-term context. The drought termination phase in 2009–2012 was, at the time, regarded as exceptional in terms of magnitude and spatial footprint, but the Thames river flow record identifies several comparable events before 1930. The chronology could, in due course, provide a basis for exploring the complex drivers, long-term variability, and impacts of drought termination events

Drought termination: concept and characterisation

There are numerous anecdotal examples of drought terminations documented throughout the historical record on most continents. The end of a drought is the critical time during which water resource managers urgently require information on the replenishment of supplies. Yet this phase has been relatively neglected by the academic community, with much of the existing body of research on drought termination assessing the likelihood of droughts ending rather than its temporal profile. In particular, there has been little effort to characterise drought termination events themselves. This is partly explained by existing definitions of drought termination as a specific point in time when drought is considered to have finished, rather than a more holistic consideration based on approaches developed within biological sciences. There is also a lack of understanding about how drought termination propagates through the hydrological cycle. This paper specifically examines and reviews available research on drought termination, highlighting limitations associated with current definitions and offering suggestions for characterising the temporal stages of drought. An alternative definition of drought termination is proposed: a period between the maximum negative anomaly and a return to above-average conditions. Once this phase has been delineated, the duration, rate and seasonality of drought termination can be derived. The utility of these metrics is illustrated through a case study of the 2010–2012 drought in the UK, and the propagation of drought termination between river flows and groundwater levels

Comparability of macroinvertebrate biomonitoring indices of river health derived from semi-quantitative and quantitative methodologies

Aquatic macroinvertebrates have been the basis for one of the primary indicators and a cornerstone of lotic biomonitoring for over 40 years. Despite the widespread use of lotic invertebrates in statutory biomonitoring networks, scientific research and citizen science projects, the sampling methodologies employed frequently vary between studies. Routine statutory biomonitoring has historically relied on semi-quantitative sampling methods (timed kick sampling), while much academic research has favoured fully quantitative methods (e.g. Surber sampling). There is an untested assumption that data derived using quantitative and semi-quantitative samples are not comparable for biomonitoring purposes. As a result, data derived from the same site, but using different sampling techniques, have typically not been analysed together or directly compared. Here, we test this assumption by comparing a range of biomonitoring metrics derived from data collected using timed semi-quantitative kick samples and quantitative Surber samples from the same sites simultaneously. In total, 39 pairs of samples from 7 rivers in the UK were compared for two seasons (spring and autumn). We found a strong positive correlation (rs = +0.84) between estimates of taxa richness based on ten Surber sub-samples and a single kick sample. The majority of biomonitoring metrics were comparable between techniques, although only fully quantitative sampling allows the density of the community (individual m−2) to be determined. However, this advantage needs to be balanced alongside the greater total sampling time and effort associated with the fully quantitative methodology used here. Kick samples did not provide a good estimate of relative abundance of a number of species/taxa and, therefore, the quantitative method has the potential to provide important additional information which may support the interpretation of the biological metrics

HydroDetect : The Identification and Assessment of Climate Change Indicators for an Irish Reference Network of River Flow Stations. Climate Change Research Programme (CCRP) 2007-2013 Report Series No. 27. ISBN 978-1-84095-507-1

Abstract included in text

Past and projected weather pattern persistence with associated multi-hazards in the British Isles

Hazards such as heatwaves, droughts and floods are often associated with persistent weather patterns. Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are important tools for evaluating projected changes in extreme weather. Here, we demonstrate that 2-day weather pattern persistence, derived from the Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) objective scheme, is a useful concept for both investigating climate risks from multi-hazard events as well as for assessing AOGCM realism. This study evaluates the ability of a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model sub-ensemble of 10 AOGCMs at reproducing seasonal LWTs persistence and frequencies over the British Isles (BI). Changes in persistence are investigated under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) up to 2100. The ensemble broadly replicates historical LWTs persistence observed in reanalyses (1971-2000). Future persistence and frequency of summer anticyclonic LWT are found to increase, implying heightened risk of drought and heatwaves. On the other hand, the cyclonic LWT decreases in autumn suggesting reduced likelihood of flooding and severe gales. During winter, AOGCMs point to increased risk of concurrent fluvial flooding-wind hazards by 2100, however, they also tend to over-estimate such risks when compared to reanalyses. In summer, the strength of the nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI) of London could intensify, enhancing the likelihood of combined heatwave-poor air quality events. Further research is needed to explore other multi-hazards in relation to changing weather pattern persistence and how best to communicate such threats to vulnerable communities

Multi-hazard dependencies can increase or decrease risk

In risk analysis, it is recognized that hazards can often combine to worsen their joint impact, but impact data for a rail network show that hazards can also tend to be mutually exclusive at seasonal timescales. Ignoring this overestimates worst-case risk, so we therefore champion a broader view of risk from compound hazard