Variance reduction in randomised trials by inverse probability weighting using the propensity score.

In individually randomised controlled trials, adjustment for baseline characteristics is often undertaken to increase precision of the treatment effect estimate. This is usually performed using covariate adjustment in outcome regression models. An alternative method of adjustment is to use inverse probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW), on the basis of estimated propensity scores. We calculate the large-sample marginal variance of IPTW estimators of the mean difference for continuous outcomes, and risk difference, risk ratio or odds ratio for binary outcomes. We show that IPTW adjustment always increases the precision of the treatment effect estimate. For continuous outcomes, we demonstrate that the IPTW estimator has the same large-sample marginal variance as the standard analysis of covariance estimator. However, ignoring the estimation of the propensity score in the calculation of the variance leads to the erroneous conclusion that the IPTW treatment effect estimator has the same variance as an unadjusted estimator; thus, it is important to use a variance estimator that correctly takes into account the estimation of the propensity score. The IPTW approach has particular advantages when estimating risk differences or risk ratios. In this case, non-convergence of covariate-adjusted outcome regression models frequently occurs. Such problems can be circumvented by using the IPTW adjustment approach

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the western hemisphere

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today

Molecular Hydrogen and Paschen-alpha Emission in Cooling Flow Galaxies

We present near-infrared spectra obtained to search for Pa-alpha and molecular hydrogen lines in edge-darkened (FR I-type) radio galaxies with bright Halpha emission in the redshift range 0.0535<z<0.15. We find that all three galaxies in our sample (PKS 0745-191, PKS 1346+26, & PKS2322-12) which are associated with strong cooling flows also have strong Pa-alpha and H_2 (1-0) S(1) through S(5) emission, while other radio galaxies do not. Together with earlier observations this confirms claims that cooling flow galaxies are copious emitters of molecular hydrogen with large H_2 (1-0) S(3)/Pa-alpha ratios in the range 0.5 to 2. The emission is centrally concentrated within the inner few kiloparsec and could come from warm (T ~ 1000-1500 K) molecular material which is being deposited by the cooling flow. We speculate that the H_2 emission could be related to the interaction between the jets and this molecular gas.Comment: ApJ Letters, in press, AAS LaTex, preprint also available at http://www.astro.umd.edu/~hfalcke/publications.html#nirga

Pulmonary arteriovenous malformations in children with hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia: A longitudinal study

Pulmonary arteriovenous malformations (PAVMs) often occur in children with hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT). A 14-year longitudinal study of PAVMs in children with HHT was undertaken to assess the prevalence, the clinical impact, and progression of these malformations. This was a retrospective, single-center study from May 2002 to December 2016 of 129 children with HHT diagnosed using Curacao criteria and/or confirmed by genetic testing. Transthoracic contrast echocardiography (TTCE) was the primary screening modality in all patients and PAVMs were diagnosed based on Barzilai criteria. Moderately positive TTCE (Barzilai criteria ≥ 2) was confirmed with subsequent contrast chest CT. New PAVMs were diagnosed with a positive TTCE after an initial negative TTCE. Embolization of PAVMs were performed according to HHT consensus guidelines. Of 129 children with HHT, 76 (59%) were found to have PAVMs. Sixty-seven (88%) were positive for PAVMs on initial screening. Of 63 children without PAVMs on initial screening, 31 were followed for \u3e1 year. Nine of the 31 (29%) developed new PAVMs after initial negative study. Thirty-eight (50%) of the total 76 children with PAVMs had or developed lesions large enough to be treated with embolization. Nine patients with PAVMs initially too small to be treated with embolization, developed progression of disease and ultimately were treated with embolization over time. The majority, 60% (23/38), of the children with large PAVMs had no related clinical symptoms. After embolization, 21% (8/38), of patients underwent repeat interventions. Genetic diagnosis, age, and gender were not associated with risk of having PAVM nor with need for repeat interventions. Nearly 60% of children with HHT develop PAVMs. The risk for new PAVMs to develop, small PAVMs to become large, and previously embolized PAVMs to require further intervention remains throughout childhood. Thus, children with HHT require continued follow-up until adulthood

Exploring the Use of Machine Learning to Develop a Predictive Model for Future Fire Seasons

No abstract availabl

Using Deep Learning to Predict Yearly Wildfire Potential from Antecedent Land Surface and Meteorological Data

No abstract availabl

Suppressor of cytokine signalling protein SOCS3 expression is increased at sites of acute and chronic inflammation.

Treatment of cells with cytokines and growth factors leads to the synthesis of Suppressor of Cytokine Signalling (SOCS) proteins that act as potent negative regulators of signalling via the Jak/STAT pathway. We used immunohistochemistry to identify cells and pathologies where SOCS3 expression might influence acute and chronic inflammatory responses in human tissues. Epitope and GFP tagged SOCS3 fusion proteins were localised predominantly in the nucleus of transfected cells and a validated anti SOCS3 antiserum revealed the expression of SOCS3 in the nucleus and cytoplasm of macrophages, endothelial and epithelial cells in a wide range of normal tissues in tissue microarrays (n = 31 different tissues). Nuclear SOCS3 was only seen in cells expressing a high level of the protein. Comparative immunostaining of acute, chronically and granulomatously inflamed human tissues revealed higher levels of nuclear and cytoplasmic SOCS3 expression in inflamed than in corresponding normal tissues, particularly in recruited leukocyte populations, but also in epithelia. The staining appeared more intense, suggesting higher expression levels, in areas where inflammation was more acute, consistent with the time course of SOCS3 induction described in vitro. Expression of SOCS3 protein by leucocytes and other cell types in tissue sections could be a useful marker of cells undergoing acute or chronic stimulation by cytokines in vivo

Red Galaxy Growth and the Halo Occupation Distribution

We have traced the past 7 Gyr of red galaxy stellar mass growth within dark matter halos. We have determined the halo occupation distribution, which describes how galaxies reside within dark matter halos, using the observed luminosity function and clustering of 40,696 0.2<z<1.0 red galaxies in Bootes. Half of 10^{11.9} Msun/h halos host a red central galaxy, and this fraction increases with increasing halo mass. We do not observe any evolution of the relationship between red galaxy stellar mass and host halo mass, although we expect both galaxy stellar masses and halo masses to evolve over cosmic time. We find that the stellar mass contained within the red population has doubled since z=1, with the stellar mass within red satellite galaxies tripling over this redshift range. In cluster mass halos most of the stellar mass resides within satellite galaxies and the intra-cluster light, with a minority of the stellar mass residing within central galaxies. The stellar masses of the most luminous red central galaxies are proportional to halo mass to the power of a third. We thus conclude that halo mergers do not always lead to rapid growth of central galaxies. While very massive halos often double in mass over the past 7 Gyr, the stellar masses of their central galaxies typically grow by only 30%.Comment: Accepted for publication in the ApJ. 34 pages, 22 Figures, 5 Table

Halo Substructure and the Power Spectrum

In this proceeding, we present the results of a semi-analytic study of CDM substructure as a function of the primordial power spectrum. We apply our method to several tilted models in the LCDM framework with n=0.85-1.1, sigma_8=0.65-1.2 when COBE normalized. We also study a more extreme, warm dark matter-like spectrum that is sharply truncated below a scale of 10^10 h^-1 Msun. We show that the mass fraction of halo substructure is not a strong function of spectral slope, so it likely will be difficult to constrain tilt using flux ratios of gravitationally lensed quasars. On the positive side, all of our CDM-type models yield projected mass fractions in good agreement with strong lensing estimates: f \sim 1.5% at M \sim 10^8 Msun. The truncated model produces a significantly smaller fraction, f \lsim 0.3%, suggesting that warm dark matter-like spectra may be distinguished from CDM spectra using lensing. We also discuss the issue of dwarf satellite abundances, with emphasis on the cosmological dependence of the map between the observed central velocity dispersion of Milky Way satellites and the maximum circular velocities of their host halos. In agreement with earlier work, we find that standard LCDM over-predicts the estimated count of Milky Way satellites at fixed Vmax by an order of magnitude, but tilted models do better because subhalos are less concentrated. Interestingly, under the assumption that dwarfs have isotropic velocity dispersion tensors, models with significantly tilted spectra (n \lsim 0.85, sigma_8 \lsim 0.7) may under-predict the number of large Milky Way satellites with Vmax \gsim 40 km/s.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures. Poster contribution to the 13th Annual Astrophysics Conference in Maryland, The Emergence of Cosmic Structur

Shoot yield drives phosphorus use efficiency in Brassica oleracea and correlates with root architecture traits

The environmental and financial costs of using inorganic phosphate fertilizers to maintain crop yield and quality are high. Breeding crops that acquire and use phosphorus (P) more efficiently could reduce these costs. The variation in shoot P concentration (shoot-P) and various measures of P use efficiency (PUE) were quantified among 355 Brassica oleracea L. accessions, 74 current commercial cultivars, and 90 doubled haploid (DH) mapping lines from a reference genetic mapping population. Accessions were grown at two or more external P concentrations in glasshouse experiments; commercial and DH accessions were also grown in replicated field experiments. Within the substantial species-wide diversity observed for shoot-P and various measures of PUE in B. oleracea, current commercial cultivars have greater PUE than would be expected by chance. This may be a consequence of breeding for increased yield, which is a significant component of most measures of PUE, or early establishment. Root development and architecture correlate with PUE; in particular, lateral root number, length, and growth rate. Significant quantitative trait loci associated with shoot-P and PUE occur on chromosomes C3 and C7. These data provide information to initiate breeding programmes to improve PUE in B. oleracea