Analyses of risks associated with radiation exposure from past major solar particle events

Radiation exposures and cancer induction/mortality risks were investigated for several major solar particle events (SPE's). The SPE's included are: February 1956, November 1960, August 1972, October 1989, and the September, August, and October 1989 events combined. The three 1989 events were treated as one since all three could affect a single lunar or Mars mission. A baryon transport code was used to propagate particles through aluminum and tissue shield materials. A free space environment was utilized for all calculations. Results show the 30-day blood forming organs (BFO) limit of 25 rem was surpassed by all five events using 10 g/sq cm of shielding. The BFO limit is based on a depth dose of 5 cm of tissue, while a more detailed shield distribution of the BFO's was utilized. A comparison between the 5 cm depth dose and the dose found using the BFO shield distribution shows that the 5 cm depth value slightly higher than the BFO dose. The annual limit of 50 rem was exceeded by the August 1972, October 1989, and the three combined 1989 events with 5 g/sq cm of shielding. Cancer mortality risks ranged from 1.5 to 17 percent at 1 g/sq cm and 0.5 to 1.1 percent behind 10 g/sq cm of shielding for five events. These ranges correspond to those for a 45 year old male. It is shown that secondary particles comprise about 1/3 of the total risk at 10 g/sq cm of shielding. Utilizing a computerized Space Shuttle shielding model to represent a typical spacecraft configuration in free space at the August 1972 SPE, average crew doses exceeded the BFO dose limit

International Coercion, Emulation and Policy Diffusion: Market-Oriented Infrastructure Reforms, 1977-1999

Why do some countries adopt market-oriented reforms such as deregulation, privatization and liberalization of competition in their infrastructure industries while others do not? Why did the pace of adoption accelerate in the 1990s? Building on neo-institutional theory in sociology, we argue that the domestic adoption of market-oriented reforms is strongly influenced by international pressures of coercion and emulation. We find robust support for these arguments with an event-history analysis of the determinants of reform in the telecommunications and electricity sectors of as many as 205 countries and territories between 1977 and 1999. Our results also suggest that the coercive effect of multilateral lending from the IMF, the World Bank or Regional Development Banks is increasing over time, a finding that is consistent with anecdotal evidence that multilateral organizations have broadened the scope of the “conditionality” terms specifying market-oriented reforms imposed on borrowing countries. We discuss the possibility that, by pressuring countries into policy reform, cross-national coercion and emulation may not produce ideal outcomes.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40099/3/wp713.pd

Twenty Years of Radiation Measurements in Low-Earth Orbit - What Have We Learned Space Radiation Environment?

The advent of the Space Shuttle program has made possible space radiation environment measurements spanning a wide range of altitudes and orbital inclinations over multiple solar cycles. These measurements range from routine integral dose measurements with thermoluminescent dosimeters to particle energy spectra measurements made with a charged particle telescope. This paper will review the new understanding about the space radiation environment gained from this diverse data set. Major findings from these measurements include: estimations of the westward drift rate of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) of 0.28-0.49/y; evidence for a northward component to the SAA drift of 0.08-0.12/y; observation of the formation and decay of the pseudo-stable additional radiation belt following the Mar 1991 SPE and geomagnetic storm with an estimated decay e-folding time of 9-10 months; observation of a local geomagnetic east-west trapped proton exposure anisotropy with an estimated magnitude of 1.6-3.3; demonstration that the trapped proton exposure in low-Earth orbit (LEO) can be reasonably modeled as a power law function of atmospheric density in the SAA region, with best correlations obtained when the exospheric temperature saturates at 938-975 K; the actual solar cycle modulation of trapped proton exposure in LEO is less than predicted by the AP8 model; and the testing and validation of GCR flux models, radiation transport codes, and dynamic geomagnetic cutoff models. Long-term, time-resolved proportional counter measurements made aboard the Mir during the same period provides further demonstration of the solar cycle modulation of the trapped protons at low altitudes - the observed modulation is also well described as power law function of atmospheric density. These data and findings have helped to improve the overall accuracy of pre-mission crew exposure projections using various semi-empirical space environment models, radiation transport codes, and spacecraft radiation shielding models. During the rise phase of solar cycle 22 (1987-1991), the RMS error between preflight exposure projections and measured crew exposure was 73%. For the rise phase of cycle 23 (1997-2001), the preflight exposure projection RMS error has decreased to 23%. The launch and assembly of the Space Station has begun a new era of long-term LEO space environment monitoring. The radiation environment at the Space Station will be monitored with three external charged particle telescopes oriented in the velocity vector, anti-velocity vector, and zenith directions. Data from the telescopes will provide charge, mass, energy, and arrival direction for incident particles with energy to mass ratios of 13- 450 MeV/amu and Z of 1-24. The external environment data will be complimented by measurements from a portable charged particle telescope and proportional counter located inside the vehicle