Analyses of risks associated with radiation exposure from past major solar particle events

Abstract

Radiation exposures and cancer induction/mortality risks were investigated for several major solar particle events (SPE's). The SPE's included are: February 1956, November 1960, August 1972, October 1989, and the September, August, and October 1989 events combined. The three 1989 events were treated as one since all three could affect a single lunar or Mars mission. A baryon transport code was used to propagate particles through aluminum and tissue shield materials. A free space environment was utilized for all calculations. Results show the 30-day blood forming organs (BFO) limit of 25 rem was surpassed by all five events using 10 g/sq cm of shielding. The BFO limit is based on a depth dose of 5 cm of tissue, while a more detailed shield distribution of the BFO's was utilized. A comparison between the 5 cm depth dose and the dose found using the BFO shield distribution shows that the 5 cm depth value slightly higher than the BFO dose. The annual limit of 50 rem was exceeded by the August 1972, October 1989, and the three combined 1989 events with 5 g/sq cm of shielding. Cancer mortality risks ranged from 1.5 to 17 percent at 1 g/sq cm and 0.5 to 1.1 percent behind 10 g/sq cm of shielding for five events. These ranges correspond to those for a 45 year old male. It is shown that secondary particles comprise about 1/3 of the total risk at 10 g/sq cm of shielding. Utilizing a computerized Space Shuttle shielding model to represent a typical spacecraft configuration in free space at the August 1972 SPE, average crew doses exceeded the BFO dose limit