Using Clinical Trial Simulators to Analyse the Sources of Variance in Clinical Trials of Novel Therapies for Acute Viral Infections.

BACKGROUND:About 90% of drugs fail in clinical development. The question is whether trials fail because of insufficient efficacy of the new treatment, or rather because of poor trial design that is unable to detect the true efficacy. The variance of the measured endpoints is a major, largely underestimated source of uncertainty in clinical trial design, particularly in acute viral infections. We use a clinical trial simulator to demonstrate how a thorough consideration of the variability inherent in clinical trials of novel therapies for acute viral infections can improve trial design. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We developed a clinical trial simulator to analyse the impact of three different types of variation on the outcome of a challenge study of influenza treatments for infected patients, including individual patient variability in the response to the drug, the variance of the measurement procedure, and the variance of the lower limit of quantification of endpoint measurements. In addition, we investigated the impact of protocol variation on clinical trial outcome. We found that the greatest source of variance was inter-individual variability in the natural course of infection. Running a larger phase II study can save up to $38 million, if an unlikely to succeed phase III trial is avoided. In addition, low-sensitivity viral load assays can lead to falsely negative trial outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:Due to high inter-individual variability in natural infection, the most important variable in clinical trial design for challenge studies of potential novel influenza treatments is the number of participants. 100 participants are preferable over 50. Using more sensitive viral load assays increases the probability of a positive trial outcome, but may in some circumstances lead to false positive outcomes. Clinical trial simulations are powerful tools to identify the most important sources of variance in clinical trials and thereby help improve trial design

Discontinuation of Pneumocystis jirovecii Pneumonia Prophylaxis with CD4 Count <200 Cells/µL and Virologic Suppression: A Systematic Review

HIV viral load (VL) is currently not part of the criteria for Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) prophylaxis discontinuation, but suppression of plasma viremia with antiretroviral therapy may allow for discontinuation of PCP prophylaxis even with CD4 count <200 cells/µL.A systematic review was performed to determine the incidence of PCP in HIV-infected individuals with CD4 count <200 cells/µL and fully suppressed VL on antiretroviral therapy but not receiving PCP prophylaxis.Four articles examined individuals who discontinued PCP prophylaxis with CD4 count <200 cells/µL in the context of fully suppressed VL on antiretroviral therapy. The overall incidence of PCP was 0.48 cases per 100 person-years (PY) (95% confidence interval (CI) (0.06-0.89). This was lower than the incidence of PCP in untreated HIV infection (5.30 cases/100 PY, 95% CI 4.1-6.8) and lower than the incidence in persons with CD4 count <200 cells/µL, before the availability of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), who continued prophylaxis (4.85/100 PY, 95% CI 0.92-8.78). In one study in which individuals were stratified according to CD4 count <200 cells/µL, there was a greater risk of PCP with CD4 count ≤100 cells/µL compared to 101-200 cells/µL.Primary PCP prophylaxis may be safely discontinued in HIV-infected individuals with CD4 count between 101-200 cells/µL provided the VL is fully suppressed on antiretroviral therapy. However, there are inadequate data available to make this recommendation when the CD4 count is ≤100 cells/µL. A revision of guidelines on primary PCP prophylaxis to include consideration of the VL is merited

Virtual Patient Simulations in Health Professions Education: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis by the Digital Health Education Collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Virtual patients are interactive digital simulations of clinical scenarios for the purpose of health professions education. There is no current collated evidence on the effectiveness of this form of education. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of virtual patients compared with traditional education, blended with traditional education, compared with other types of digital education, and design variants of virtual patients in health professions education. The outcomes of interest were knowledge, skills, attitudes, and satisfaction. METHODS: We performed a systematic review on the effectiveness of virtual patient simulations in pre- and postregistration health professions education following Cochrane methodology. We searched 7 databases from the year 1990 up to September 2018. No language restrictions were applied. We included randomized controlled trials and cluster randomized trials. We independently selected studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias and then compared the information in pairs. We contacted study authors for additional information if necessary. All pooled analyses were based on random-effects models. RESULTS: A total of 51 trials involving 4696 participants met our inclusion criteria. Furthermore, 25 studies compared virtual patients with traditional education, 11 studies investigated virtual patients as blended learning, 5 studies compared virtual patients with different forms of digital education, and 10 studies compared different design variants. The pooled analysis of studies comparing the effect of virtual patients to traditional education showed similar results for knowledge (standardized mean difference [SMD]=0.11, 95% CI -0.17 to 0.39, I2=74%, n=927) and favored virtual patients for skills (SMD=0.90, 95% CI 0.49 to 1.32, I2=88%, n=897). Studies measuring attitudes and satisfaction predominantly used surveys with item-by-item comparison. Trials comparing virtual patients with different forms of digital education and design variants were not numerous enough to give clear recommendations. Several methodological limitations in the included studies and heterogeneity contributed to a generally low quality of evidence. CONCLUSIONS: Low to modest and mixed evidence suggests that when compared with traditional education, virtual patients can more effectively improve skills, and at least as effectively improve knowledge. The skills that improved were clinical reasoning, procedural skills, and a mix of procedural and team skills. We found evidence of effectiveness in both high-income and low- and middle-income countries, demonstrating the global applicability of virtual patients. Further research should explore the utility of different design variants of virtual patients

Compartmentalisation of cytokines and cytokine inhibitors in ventilator-associated pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether cytokine concentrations change in the pulmonary compartment during the development of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). DESIGN: Non-directed bronchial lavage (NBL) was performed every 48 h in critically ill mechanically ventilated patients. Serial measurements of the cytokines tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alpha, interleukin (IL)-1alpha, IL-1beta, IL-6, and IL-10 and the cytokine inhibitors soluble TNFalpha receptor type I (sTNFalphaRI), IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra) and soluble IL-1 receptor II (sIL-1RII) were performed on the NBL fluid and matching plasma samples by ELISA. SETTING: An adult medical and surgical university hospital intensive care unit. PATIENTS: Nine patients who developed VAP and nineteen patients who did not develop VAP served as controls. INTERVENTIONS: None. RESULTS: Plasma concentrations of the measured cytokines and cytokine inhibitors did not change significantly in any patients. In control patients, NBL fluid concentrations of sIL-1RII decreased significantly over time (P=0.01). In patients who developed VAP, NBL fluid concentrations of TNFalpha, sTNFalphaRI, IL-1alpha, and IL-1beta increased significantly (P=0.002, P=0.03, P=0.04 and P=0.02, respectively). Furthermore, NBL fluid/plasma concentration ratios for TNFalpha, sTNFalphaRI, IL-1alpha, IL-1Ra and IL-6 increased significantly as VAP developed (P=0.001, P=0.001, P=0.04, P=0.03, and P=0.04, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the production of important cytokines and cytokine inhibitors is compartmentalised within the lung in critically ill mechanically ventilated patients who develop VAP