Using local and historical data to enhance understanding of spatial and temporal rainfall patterns

Farmers face uncertainty in their businesses from many factors, but rainfall is a key determinant of both the nature of the production system and variation in financial returns. Currently, various weather forecasting services are available from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) based on about 7000 stations covering all of Australia. Seasonal Climate Forecasts are seen as another tool that can help to improve farm productivity. It is well known that many farmers keep their own rainfall records, and likely that the farmers have a high degree of confidence in their own records. Australian Bureau of Statistics figures indicate that there were possibly 7000 grain related ‘agricultural businesses’ in NSW alone in 2009/10 indicating that there is the potential to increase data density by up to an order of magnitude. This project is part of a broader study to improve rainfall predictions for grain farmers using data collected locally to the users (crowd sourcing). The data is collected directly on farm, and from other sources which may be available. The focus is on the historical data, its collection and analysis, in terms of discerning patterns in time and space which may help provide a local framework, within which coarser scale forecasts can be interpreted and understood. Data will be stored on secure database systems at the University of Sydney. Results indicate that farm data does provide more local detail, temporally and spatially. Deficit and surplus analysis demonstrates the predictive capacity of the local temporal data, despite limited data precluding the definition of ideal criteria and parameters for predictive ‘similar year’ selection. The spatial data demonstrates quantifiable site specific differences from institutional data. Testing across more climate types may allow these differences to be defined within and across regions. Tests for an indicator time period show that farm rainfall in the early part of the growing season (April and May) may indeed be indicative of seasonal condtions, while more data is needed to confirm this. The use of southern oscillation life cycle information to select appropriate years considerably improved the relationships revealed, with a doubling of relationship strength across all climatic types, although the strength of the relationships differed across the climatic types, and the strongest relationships were split between the months of April and May. More extensive analysis, with more data across more BoM districts (and therefore climate classes) will be required to confirm this conclusion, but it appears that farm rainfall records and SOI information can provide an indicator time period to help farmers interpret, refine and utilise seasonal forecasts

Inflation with racetrack superpotential and matter field

Several models of inflation with the racetrack superpotential for the volume modulus coupled to a matter field are investigated. In particular, it is shown that two classes of racetrack inflation models, saddle point and inflection point ones, can be constructed in a fully supersymmetric framework with the matter field F-term as a source of supersymmetry breaking and uplifting. Two models of F-term supersymmetry breaking are considered: the Polonyi model and the quantum corrected O'Raifeartaigh model. In the former case, both classes of racetrack inflation models differ significantly from the corresponding models with non-supersymmetric uplifting. The main difference is a quite strong dominance of the inflaton by the matter field. In addition, fine-tuning of the parameters is relaxed as compared to the original racetrack models. In the case of the racetrack inflation models coupled to the O'Raifeartaigh model, the matter field is approximately decoupled from the inflationary dynamics. In all of the above models the gravitino mass is larger than the Hubble scale during inflation. The possibility of having the gravitino much lighter than the Hubble scale is also investigated. It is very hard to construct models with light gravitino in which the volume modulus dominates inflation. On the other hand, models in which the inflationary dynamics is dominated by the matter field are relatively simple and seem to be more natural.Comment: 40 pages, 13 figures, references added, typos corrected, version to be publishe

A dynamic neural field approach to natural and efficient human-robot collaboration

A major challenge in modern robotics is the design of autonomous robots that are able to cooperate with people in their daily tasks in a human-like way. We address the challenge of natural human-robot interactions by using the theoretical framework of dynamic neural fields (DNFs) to develop processing architectures that are based on neuro-cognitive mechanisms supporting human joint action. By explaining the emergence of self-stabilized activity in neuronal populations, dynamic field theory provides a systematic way to endow a robot with crucial cognitive functions such as working memory, prediction and decision making . The DNF architecture for joint action is organized as a large scale network of reciprocally connected neuronal populations that encode in their firing patterns specific motor behaviors, action goals, contextual cues and shared task knowledge. Ultimately, it implements a context-dependent mapping from observed actions of the human onto adequate complementary behaviors that takes into account the inferred goal of the co-actor. We present results of flexible and fluent human-robot cooperation in a task in which the team has to assemble a toy object from its components.The present research was conducted in the context of the fp6-IST2 EU-IP Project JAST (proj. nr. 003747) and partly financed by the FCT grants POCI/V.5/A0119/2005 and CONC-REEQ/17/2001. We would like to thank Luis Louro, Emanuel Sousa, Flora Ferreira, Eliana Costa e Silva, Rui Silva and Toni Machado for their assistance during the robotic experiment

D* Production in Deep Inelastic Scattering at HERA

This paper presents measurements of D^{*\pm} production in deep inelastic scattering from collisions between 27.5 GeV positrons and 820 GeV protons. The data have been taken with the ZEUS detector at HERA. The decay channel $D^{*+}\to (D^0 \to K^- \pi^+) \pi^+$ (+ c.c.) has been used in the study. The $e^+p$ cross section for inclusive D^{*\pm} production with $5<Q^2<100 GeV^2$ and $y<0.7$ is 5.3 \pms 1.0 \pms 0.8 nb in the kinematic region {$1.3<p_T(D^{*\pm})<9.0$ GeV and $| \eta(D^{*\pm}) |<1.5$}. Differential cross sections as functions of p_T(D^{*\pm}), $\eta(D^{*\pm}), W$ and $Q^2$ are compared with next-to-leading order QCD calculations based on the photon-gluon fusion production mechanism. After an extrapolation of the cross section to the full kinematic region in p_T(D^{*\pm}) and $\eta$(D^{*\pm}), the charm contribution $F_2^{c\bar{c}}(x,Q^2)$ to the proton structure function is determined for Bjorken $x$ between 2 $\cdot$ 10$^{-4}$ and 5 $\cdot$ 10$^{-3}$.Comment: 17 pages including 4 figure

Observation of Scaling Violations in Scaled Momentum Distributions at HERA

Charged particle production has been measured in deep inelastic scattering (DIS) events over a large range of $x$ and $Q^2$ using the ZEUS detector. The evolution of the scaled momentum, $x_p$, with $Q^2,$ in the range 10 to 1280 $GeV^2$, has been investigated in the current fragmentation region of the Breit frame. The results show clear evidence, in a single experiment, for scaling violations in scaled momenta as a function of $Q^2$.Comment: 21 pages including 4 figures, to be published in Physics Letters B. Two references adde

First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data

Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto- noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of 11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal. Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried out so far

Search for gravitational waves from low mass compact binary coalescence in LIGO's sixth science run and Virgo's science runs 2 and 3

We report on a search for gravitational waves from coalescing compact binaries using LIGO and Virgo observations between July 7, 2009, and October 20, 2010. We searched for signals from binaries with total mass between 2 and 25M⊙; this includes binary neutron stars, binary black holes, and binaries consisting of a black hole and neutron star. The detectors were sensitive to systems up to 40 Mpc distant for binary neutron stars, and further for higher mass systems. No gravitational-wave signals were detected. We report upper limits on the rate of compact binary coalescence as a function of total mass, including the results from previous LIGO and Virgo observations. The cumulative 90% confidence rate upper limits of the binary coalescence of binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems are 1.3×10−4, 3.1×10−5, and 6.4×10−6  Mpc−3 yr−1, respectively. These upper limits are up to a factor 1.4 lower than previously derived limits. We also report on results from a blind injection challenge. © 2012 The American Physical Societ

Upper limits on a stochastic gravitational-wave background using LIGO and Virgo interferometers at 600-1000 Hz

A stochastic background of gravitational waves is expected to arise from a superposition of many incoherent sources of gravitational waves, of either cosmological or astrophysical origin. This background is a target for the current generation of ground-based detectors. In this article we present the first joint search for a stochastic background using data from the LIGO and Virgo interferometers. In a frequency band of 600–1000 Hz, we obtained a 95% upper limit on the amplitude of ΩGW(f)=Ω3(f/900  Hz)3, of Ω3<0.32, assuming a value of the Hubble parameter of h100=0.71. These new limits are a factor of seven better than the previous best in this frequency band. © 2012 The American Physical Societ

All-sky search for gravitational-wave bursts in the second joint LIGO-Virgo run

We present results from a search for gravitational-wave bursts in the data collected by the LIGO and Virgo detectors between July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010: data are analyzed when at least two of the three LIGO-Virgo detectors are in coincident operation, with a total observation time of 207 days. The analysis searches for transients of duration ≲1  s over the frequency band 64–5000 Hz, without other assumptions on the signal waveform, polarization, direction or occurrence time. All identified events are consistent with the expected accidental background. We set frequentist upper limits on the rate of gravitational-wave bursts by combining this search with the previous LIGO-Virgo search on the data collected between November 2005 and October 2007. The upper limit on the rate of strong gravitational-wave bursts at the Earth is 1.3 events per year at 90% confidence. We also present upper limits on source rate density per year and Mpc3 for sample populations of standard-candle sources. As in the previous joint run, typical sensitivities of the search in terms of the root-sum-squared strain amplitude for these waveforms lie in the range ∼5×10−22  Hz−1/2 to ∼1×10−20  Hz−1/2. The combination of the two joint runs entails the most sensitive all-sky search for generic gravitational-wave bursts and synthesizes the results achieved by the initial generation of interferometric detectors. © 2012 The American Physical Societ