Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX model for Switzerland: an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows

model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models. Second, we look at different estimation windows. We find that averaging over estimation windows is at least as effective as averaging over different models and both complement each other. Third, we explore whether using weighting schemes from the machine learning literature improves the average forecast. Compared to equal weights the effect of the weighting scheme on forecast accuracy is small in our application

A VECX* model of the Swiss economy

This paper applies the modelling strategy of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin (2003) to the estimation of a structural cointegrated VAR model that relates the core macroeconomic variables of the Swiss economy to current and lagged values of a number of key foreign variables. We identify and test a long-run structure between the variables. Moreover, we analyse the dynamic properties of the model using Generalised Impulse Response Functions. In its current form the model can be used to produce forecasts for the endogenous variables either under alternative specifi cations of the marginal model for the exogenous variables, or conditional on some pre-specifi ed path of those variables (for scenario forecasting). In due course the Swiss VECX* model can also be integrated within a Global VAR (GVAR) model where the foreign variables of the model are determined endogenously.Long-run structural vector autoregression

Forecasting the Swiss Economy Using VECX* Models: An Exercise in Forecast Combination Across Modelsand Observation Windows

This paper uses vector error correction models of Switzerland for forecasting output, inflation and the short-term interest rate. It considers three different ways of dealing with forecast uncertainties. First, it investigates the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models. Second, it considers averaging forecasts from different estimation windows. It is found that averaging over estimation windows is at least as effective as averaging over different models and both complement each other. Third, it examines whether using weighting schemes from the machine learning literature improves the average forecast. Compared to equal weights the effect of alternative weighting schemes on forecast accuracy is small in the present application.Bayesian model averaging, choice of observation window, long-run structural vector autoregression

Tracking the origin of invasive Rosa rubiginosa populations in Argentina

The exact geographic origin of invasive species populations is rarely known; however, such knowledge is vital to understanding species’ invasion success, spread, and evolution as well as for assessing any biological control options. We investigated the shrub Rosa rubiginosa L., focusing on the presumed European origin of invasive populations in Argentina. We analyzed eight polymorphic microsatellite loci among 102 native (European) and 29 invasive (mainly central Argentinean and Patagonian) populations. Genetic diversity in the invasive range was clearly lower than in the native range, possibly because of a low number of introductions. Contrary to earlier hypotheses, the interpretation of principal coordinate analysis results and Jaccard dissimilarities contradicts the idea of the Argentinean populations having a Spanish origin. Instead, we found a close similarity between Argentinean samples and those from Germany, the Czech Republic, and Austria. We therefore assume that these neighboring countries are the most probable source regions for the Argentinean populations, which in some cases may also have arrived via Chile. According to historic information, emigrants from these regions may have introduced R. rubiginosa to South America in the nineteenth century on at least two occasions, either for food or as rootstock material for propagating living fences.Fil: Hirsch, Heidi. Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg; AlemaniaFil: Zimmermann, Heike. Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg; AlemaniaFil: Ritz, Christiane M.. Senckenberg Museum of Natural History Goerlitz; AlemaniaFil: Wissemann, Volker. Justus-Liebig-University Giessen; AlemaniaFil: von Wehrden, Henrik. Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg; Alemania. Leuphana University, Institute of Ecology and Environmental Chemistry; AlemaniaFil: Renison, Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Wesche, Karsten. Senckenberg Museum of Natural History Goerlitz; AlemaniaFil: Welk, Erik. Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg; AlemaniaFil: Hensen, Isabell. Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg; Alemani

Upgrade of SULTAN/EDIPO for HTS Cable Test

AbstractCRPP hosts two unique conductor test facilities SULTAN (SUpraLeiter TestANlage) and EDIPO (European DIPOle). They allow the test of high current superconductors in high magnetic fields (SULTAN 11 T, EDIPO 12.5 T). In both facilities sample currents up to 100 kA can be supplied by means of a NbTi transformer. Presently the facilities are upgraded for the test of high current high-temperature superconductor (HTS) samples. For HTS conductor testing at temperatures between 20 and 50K, the heat flux between the HTS sample under test and the NbTi transformer needs to be limited to around 10W per conductor leg by means of an HTS adapter connecting them. The second required upgrade is the supply of intermediate temperature helium (20-50 K) to the HTS test conductor. It is mandatory that the helium gas coming from the HTS conductor under test can be returned to the cryoplant as cold gas (T < 20K). To reach this goal a tube-in-tube heat exchanger has been manufactured in which 4.5K helium coming from the cryoplant is in counter flow with the warm gas leaving the HTS test conductor

Model Reduction for Multiscale Lithium-Ion Battery Simulation

In this contribution we are concerned with efficient model reduction for multiscale problems arising in lithium-ion battery modeling with spatially resolved porous electrodes. We present new results on the application of the reduced basis method to the resulting instationary 3D battery model that involves strong non-linearities due to Buttler-Volmer kinetics. Empirical operator interpolation is used to efficiently deal with this issue. Furthermore, we present the localized reduced basis multiscale method for parabolic problems applied to a thermal model of batteries with resolved porous electrodes. Numerical experiments are given that demonstrate the reduction capabilities of the presented approaches for these real world applications

Detergent and sanitizer stresses decrease the thermal resistance of Enterobacter sakazakii in infant milk formula

Infant milk formula has been identified as a potential source of Enterobacter sakazakii. This bacterium can cause a severe form of neonatal meningitis and necrotizing entercolitis. This study determined the effect of acid, alkaline, chlorine and ethanol stresses on the thermal inactivation of E. sakazakii in infant milk formula. Stressed cells were mixed with reconstituted powdered infant milk formula (PIMF) at temperatures between 52 and 58°C for various time periods or mixed with PFMF prior to reconstitution with water at temperatures between 50 and 100°C. The D- and z-values of the cells were determined using linear regression analysis. Detergent and sanitizer stresses decreased the thermal resistance of E. sakazakii in powdered and reconstituted infant milk formula. The values for Z)- acid, alkaline, chlorine and ethanol stressed E. sakazakii at 52-58°C were 14.57-0.54, 12.07-0.37, 10.08-0.40 and 11.61-0.50 min, respectively. The values of alkaline, chlorine and ethanol stressed cells were significantly lower than those of unstressed cells. Only the z-value (4.4°C) of ethanol stressed E. sakazakii was significantly different than that of unstressed cells (4.12°C). Reconstitution at 60°C did not significantly reduce the number of pre-stressed E. sakazakii cells compared with unstressed control cells, whereas significant decreases were obtained at 70°C. Using water at 70°C during the preparation of reconstituted PIMF before feeding infants, may be a suitable and applicable means of reducing the risk of E. sakazakii in the formula. The results of this study may be of use to regulatory agencies, infant milk producers and infant caregivers to design heating processes to eliminate E. sakazakii that may be present in infant milk formula

Money in monetary policy design: monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model

In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross-check in policy formulation (see Lucas (2007)). We show that the New-Keynesian model can explain such trends if one allows for the possibility of persistent central bank misperceptions. Such misperceptions motivate the search for policies that include additional robustness checks. In earlier work, we proposed an interest rate rule that is near-optimal in normal times but includes a cross-check with monetary information. In case of unusual monetary trends, interest rates are adjusted. In this paper, we show in detail how to derive the appropriate magnitude of the interest rate adjustment following a significant cross-check with monetary information, when the New-Keynesian model is the central bank’s preferred model. The cross-check is shown to be effective in offsetting persistent deviations of inflation due to central bank misperceptions. Keywords: Monetary Policy, New-Keynesian Model, Money, Quantity Theory, European Central Bank, Policy Under Uncertaint

Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs

This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a large number of countries in the global economy. To this end a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model previously estimated over the 1979Q1-2003Q4 period by Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007), is used to generate out-of-sample one quarter and four quarters ahead forecasts of real output, inflation, real equity prices, exchange rates and interest rates over the period 2004Q1-2005Q4. Forecasts are obtained for 134 variables from 26 regions made up of 33 countries covering about 90 % of world output. The forecasts are compared to typical benchmarks: univariate autoregressive and random walk models. Building on the forecast combination literature, the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast outcomes are examined by pooling forecasts obtained from different GVAR models estimated over alternative sample periods. Given the size of the modelling problem, and the heterogeneity of economies considered — industrialised, emerging, and less developed countries — as well as the very real likelihood of possibly multiple structural breaks, averaging forecasts across both models and windows makes a significant difference. Indeed the double-averaged GVAR forecasts perform bette

Smart subtitles for vocabulary learning

Language learners often use subtitled videos to help them learn. However, standard subtitles are geared more towards comprehension than vocabulary learning, as translations are nonliteral and are provided only for phrases, not vocabulary. This paper presents Smart Subtitles, which are interactive subtitles tailored towards vocabulary learning. Smart Subtitles can be automatically generated from common video sources such as subtitled DVDs. They provide features such as vocabulary definitions on hover, and dialog-based video navigation. In our pilot study with intermediate learners studying Chinese, participants correctly defined over twice as many new words in a post-viewing vocabulary test when they used Smart Subtitles, compared to dual Chinese-English subtitles. Learners spent the same amount of time watching clips with each tool, and enjoyed viewing videos with Smart Subtitles as much as with dual subtitles. Learners understood videos equally well using either tool, as indicated by self-assessments and independent evaluations of their summaries