Report on review of cross-sectoral impact of decisions and types of problems and contexts in which different dimensions of uncertainty play a role: An exploration of tipping points in climate policy responses

Adaptation to climate change is becoming increasingly necessary, with potentially severe climate-induced changes still ahead. Of key relevance for decision-making is the potential existence of points in time where the decision situation changes from one type to another because an impact threshold is exceeded. Such a change in the decision situation is, for instance, when the deciion shifts from being the concern of one actor or agency to multiple actors at multiple scales. We call these points adaptation crossroads. Their existence has important implications for adaptation decision support because they are where strategic and transformational adaptation decisions will have to be considered. We present three cases to explore adaptation crossroads and look at the implicatons fo scientific decision support. We draw some first conclusions, present a typology of adaptation crossoads, and lay groundwork for further inquiries into this area

Improved Methods and Metrics for Assessing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Over the course of the MEDIATION project, Work Package 2 was tasked with "develop[ing] and apply[ing] a toolbox, defined as a set of models, methods, and metrics for the assessment of impacts and vulnerability and adaptation options." As highlighted in Deliverable 2.2, many frameworks and methods for assessing adaptation have been developed over the last 20 years, yet these often have not been adopted in the context of formal adaptation policies in Europe and elsewhere. Reasons and problems include: (i) a fragmentation of methods and tools, (ii) a lack of linkages to actual policy needs, (iii) a lack of understanding and communication of uncertainties, (iv) the often expert-based nature and complexity of methods used versus actual user demands, and (v) a lack of consistent data, definitions and metrics. Deliverable 2.2 put forward a rough prototype for a toolbox of methods for studying impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. In this deliverable, we discuss subsequent work on the MEDIATION toolbox, and report on application and testing of the improved methods and metrics in selected key European sectors and regions. We present feedback and improvement to methods and metrics based on input from case studies, stakeholders, and focus groups, as well as an overview of case study work and contribution to an improved MEDIATION toolbox. This input resulted in a number of conclusions relating to the development and use of methods and metrics, reducing uncertainty in CCIAV, and led to a number of changes, including the creation of a novel typology for classifying methods and models relating to CCIAV analysis. We provide an overview of the new typology, as well as the final toolbox, and summarize case study contributions towards improved methods and metrics

Building Regional Water-Use Scenarios Consistent with Global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Water use projections are crucial to safeguard sustainable access to freshwater in the future. The Water Futures and Solution initiative (WFaS) has developed a set of global water-use scenarios consistent with the recent Assessment Report framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, notably the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and applying a hydro-economic classification that links a socioeconomic dimension with hydrologic complexity. Here we present regional water use projections for the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China consistent with the WFaS global assessment. Using two different downscaling techniques for developing regional water-use scenarios based on the national assumptions made for China in the WFaS assessment, we investigate PRD’s water-use projections. The findings indicate significant differences in the PRD’s regional development trends compared to China’s national SSP. The regionalized scenarios project lower water use because of the PRD’s lower share of the manufacturing sector in total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and higher rates of technological improvement, compared to national development trend assumptions. Nevertheless, hydrological challenges remain for the PRD. Its total water use would still increase by up to 54% in 2030 under the regionalized scenarios. Although uncertainties related to scarce data remain, we provide a scientifically sound and feasible method to generate regional scenarios that can capture the regional sectorial water uses development as well as being consistent with national water-use scenarios developed by global assessment

RNA expression of TLR10 in normal equine tissues

Background: Toll like receptors are one of the major innate immune system pathogen recognition systems. There is little data on the expression of the TLR10 member of this family in the horse. Results: This paper describes the genetic structure of the Equine TLR10 gene and its RNA expression in a range of horse tissues. It describes the phylogenetic analysis of the Equine TLR1,6,10,2 annotations in the horse genome, firmly identifying them in their corresponding gene clades compared to other species and firmly placing the horse gene with other TLR10 genes from odd-toed ungulates. Additional 3’ transcript extensions to that annotated for TLR10 in the horse genome have been identified by analysis of RNAseq data. RNA expression of the equine TLR10 gene was highest in peripheral blood mononucleocytes and lymphoid tissue (lymph nodes and spleen), however some expression was detected in all tissues tested (jejunum, caudal mesenteric lymph nodes, bronchial lymph node, spleen, lung, colon, kidney and liver). Additional data on RNAseq expression of all equine TLR genes (1–4 and 6–10) demonstrate higher expression of TLR4 than other equine TLRs in all tissues. Conclusion: The equine TLR10 gene displays significant homology to other mammalian TLR10 genes and could be reasonably assumed to have similar fuctions. Its RNA level expression is higher in resting state PBMCs in horses than in other tissues

Climate change research and policy in Portugal

This article offers a review of research and policy on climate change in Portugal and is organized into three main themes: scientific knowledge and assessment of climate change; policy analysis and evaluation; and public engagement. Modern scientific research on meteorology and climatology started in Portugal in the 1950s and a strong community of researchers in climate science, vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptation has since developed, particularly in the last decade. Nevertheless, there are still many gaps in research, especially regarding the economic costs of climate change in Portugal and costs and benefits of adaptation. Governmental policies with a strong emphasis on mitigation were introduced at the end of the 1990s. As greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise beyond its Kyoto target for 2012, the country had to resort to the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms in order to comply. Climate change adaptation policies were introduced in 2010 but are far from being fully implemented. Regarding public engagement with climate change, high levels of concern contrast with limited understanding and rather weak behavioral dispositions to address climate change. Citizens display a heavy reliance on the media as sources of information, which are dominated by a techno-managerial discourse mainly focused on the global level. The final part of the article identifies research gaps and outlines a research agenda. Connections between policy and research are also discussed

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Non-technical summary: We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary The IPCC Assessment Reports offer the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitute an unmatched resource for climate change researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding across diverse climate change research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesise essential research advances. We collected input from experts on different fields using an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of ten key research insights with high policy relevance. This year we focus on: (1) looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgency of phasing-out fossil fuels, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future of natural carbon sinks, (5) need for join governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in the science of compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We first present a succinct account of these Insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a report targeted to policymakers as a contribution to elevate climate science every year, in time for the UNFCCC COP. Social media summary We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change research - with input from more than 200 experts 1