The compositional rule of inference with several relations

The compositional rule of inference with several relations, which is the mainly used inference rule in approximate reasoning, is considered in this paper. Stability results are given and exact computational formulae are provided

Opponents and supporters of water policy change in the Netherlands and Hungary

This paper looks at the role of individuals and the strategies that they use to bring about or oppose major policy change. Current analysis of the role that individuals or small collectives play in periods of major policy change has focussed on strategies that reinforce change and on the supporters of change. This paper adds the perspective of opponents, and asks whether they use similar strategies as those identified for supporters. Five strategies are explored: developing new ideas, building coalitions to sell ideas, using windows of opportunity, playing multiple venues and orchestrating networks. Using empirical evidence from Dutch and Hungarian water policy change, we discuss whether individuals pursued these strategies to support or oppose major policy change. Our analysis showed the significance of recognition of a new policy concept at an abstract level by responsible government actors, as well as their engagement with a credible regional coalition that can contextualise and advocate the concept regionally. The strategies of supporters were also used by opponents of water policy change. Opposition was inherent to policy change, and whether or not government actors sought to engage with opponents influenced the realisation of water policy change

Mainstreaming climate adaptation into water management in the Netherlands: The governance of the Dutch Delta Program

Whereas the literature on adaptation is rich in detail on impacts, vulnerability and limits to adaptation, less is known about governance systems that facilitate adaptation in practice. This paper offers preliminary conclusions on the constraints and opportunities for mainstreaming adaptation to climate change into water management in the Netherlands. We use the term mainstreaming for the integration of adaptation actions into ongoing sectoral planning to reduce climate vulnerability. In particular we look at the integration of climate adaptation and water management, currently underway in the implementation of the Dutch Delta Program. The Delta Program is an integral policy program executed by the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment. The paper analyses the current implementation of the Delta program in the Netherlands according to the dimensions of the Earth System Governance framework: Architecture, Agents, Adaptiveness, Accountability, Allocation and Knowledge. The analysis suggests that all five governance dimensions are considered to capitalise on opportunities for successfully planning and implementing the Delta Program and its subprograms. Architecture gets most attention at present, but the implementation depends on the subprograms and varies over time. Program bodies generally bring together government agencies from different levels of government (national, provincial, municipal and water boards). A challenge for the new emerging program bodies is to move towards legitimate, accountable ánd adaptive governance. The program so far has little attention for coalitions of government actors and non-government actors or conferring accountability to stakeholders. One of the aims of the Delta Program is innovation of water management. At present science has few strategies analysed or tested to support this innovation. Typical advice includes encouraging innovation through a rich variety of experiments and transition approaches that probe possible directions. Although the Delta Act provides in setting up experiments, financial support is conditional on co-financing and so far subprograms do not plan for such experiments. The fragmented implementation of the delta program could be turned into advantage by recognising different subprograms as a set of experiments, from which actors can learn. The analysis suggests more attention could be given to experiments that test and debate new ideas through collaboration between recognised actors from civil society, policy and science. Promising options for pilots could be the integration of agro-environmental land use systems that regulate regional climate impacts on water systems with new technologies, organisational responsibilities and financial instruments. Here governance faces creating flexible financial instruments that facilitate benefit- and burden-sharing, social learning and that support potentially better-adapted new strategies rather than compensate for climate impacts on existing activities. A challenge remains how to scale up regional pilot results to what is required for long-term national safet

Toxoplasma gondii profilin does not stimulate an innate immune response through bovine or human TLR5

Toxoplasma gondii is responsible for one of the most prevalent infections in people. T. gondii profilin (TgPr) is a protein integral to parasite movement and cellular invasion. Murine TLR has been described to bind TgPr. Furthermore, more recently, human TLR5 has been described to recognise recombinant TgPr, as well as bacterial flagellin. In addition to infections in humans, T. gondii infects farm animals, but little information is available about its innate recognition. We aimed to investigate whether, similarly to their human orthologue, bovine and porcine TLR5 could also be stimulated by TgPr by using a combination of reporter cell lines expressing full length TLR5 from each species as well as primary cells. Although human and bovine TLR5-transfected cells responded to flagellin, no response was detected upon stimulation with profilin. Furthermore, TgPr failed to elicit IL-6 secretion in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells and CD14þ monocytes. In contrast, exposure of RAW cells, known to express TLR11 to TgPr, slightly increased the IL-6 response. Our data cast doubts on the possibility that profilin is a specific ligand for human TLR5 and bovine TLR5. This leaves the immunogenic properties of this potential target antigen uncharacterised outside of the murine system

Report on review of cross-sectoral impact of decisions and types of problems and contexts in which different dimensions of uncertainty play a role: An exploration of tipping points in climate policy responses

Adaptation to climate change is becoming increasingly necessary, with potentially severe climate-induced changes still ahead. Of key relevance for decision-making is the potential existence of points in time where the decision situation changes from one type to another because an impact threshold is exceeded. Such a change in the decision situation is, for instance, when the deciion shifts from being the concern of one actor or agency to multiple actors at multiple scales. We call these points adaptation crossroads. Their existence has important implications for adaptation decision support because they are where strategic and transformational adaptation decisions will have to be considered. We present three cases to explore adaptation crossroads and look at the implicatons fo scientific decision support. We draw some first conclusions, present a typology of adaptation crossoads, and lay groundwork for further inquiries into this area

Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Management Through Diversification

This paper shows, through a numerical example, how to develop portfolios of flood management activities that generate the highest return under an acceptable risk for an area in the central part of the Netherlands. The paper shows a method based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) that contributes to developing flood management strategies. MPT aims at finding sets of investments that diversify risks thereby reducing the overall risk of the total portfolio of investments. This paper shows that through systematically combining four different flood protection measures in portfolios containing three or four measures; risk is reduced compared with portfolios that only contain one or two measures. Adding partly uncorrelated measures to the portfolio diversifies risk. We demonstrate how MPT encourages a systematic discussion of the relationship between the return and risk of individual flood mitigation activities and the return and risk of complete portfolios. It is also shown how important it is to understand the correlation of the returns of various flood management activities. The MPT approach, therefore, fits well with the notion of adaptive water management, which perceives the future as inherently uncertain. Through applying MPT on flood protection strategies current vulnerability will be reduced by diversifying risk

Analysing monthly sectorial water use and its influence on salt intrusion induced water shortage in urbanized deltas

Urbanizing delta regions face seasonal water shortages induced by rising salt intrusion. Decreasing river discharge is readily listed as the major cause of water shortage events. Yet, observations of river discharge often fail to support this attribution. Evidence of the association between severe salt intrusion and water use is weak and inconclusive. The present study asks to what extent water use contributes to salt intrusion and freshwater shortages. Moreover, it asks whether management of water use rather than water supply can be part of mitigating salt intrusion. The contribution of water use in causing severe salt intrusion events is assessed by first quantifying monthly sectorial water use and next comparing it with threshold discharges from the graded salt intrusion warning system. The case study region is the Pearl River Delta, China. Sectorial water use is found to substantially vary between months. In particular in the dry month in which water shortages are reported, water use can be more than 25% of discharge and thus exacerbates salt intrusion. Evaluation of coping strategies shows that improved water use can alleviate salt intrusion by up to one level in the warning system, thus preventing problems at a number of water abstraction points

Планирование и оптимизация маршрутов танкеров при нечетких заказах обслуживаемых судов

Розглядається проблема планування та оптимізації маршрутів танкерів-заправників, які стартують від бункерувальної компанії і мають забезпечити паливом судна, що розміщені в різних портах. Синтез алгоритмів оптимізації та моделювання здійснюється згідно з постановкою задачі планування маршрутів транспортних одиниць із обмеженою вантажомісткістю. При цьому інформація про замовлення суден в різних портах є неповною (невизначеною), значення замовлень суден моделюються з використанням нечітких множин. Перше компромісне рішення може бути модифіковане в інтерактивному режимі відповідно до декількох критеріїв та вимог оператора, що приймає рішення. Ефективність запропонованих алгоритмів підтверджується результатами моделювання.The routing problem for tanker-refuellers is considered. The tankers start at the bunkering company and must serve several ships in different ports. In principle the modeling and algorithmic approaches for capacitated vehicle routing problems can be used. Since the demands of the ships are uncertain and vague they are modeled using fuzzy sets. The first compromise solution can interactively be modified to meet the decision makers requirements with respect to the different criteria. The results are demonstrated using a small example.Рассматривается проблема планирования и оптимизации маршрутов танкеров-заправщиков, которые стартуют от бункеровочной компании и должны обеспечить топливом суда, расположенные в разных портах. Синтез алгоритмов оптимизации и моделирование осуществлены согласно постановке задачи планирования маршрутов транспортных единиц с ограниченной грузовместимостью. При этом информация о заказах судов в разных портах является неполной (неопределенной), значения заказов судов моделируются с использованием нечетких множеств. Первое компромиссное решение может модифицироваться в интерактивном режиме в соответствии с несколькими критериями и требованиями оператора, принимающего решения. Эффективность предложенных алгоритмов подтверждается результатами моделирования

Improved Methods and Metrics for Assessing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Over the course of the MEDIATION project, Work Package 2 was tasked with "develop[ing] and apply[ing] a toolbox, defined as a set of models, methods, and metrics for the assessment of impacts and vulnerability and adaptation options." As highlighted in Deliverable 2.2, many frameworks and methods for assessing adaptation have been developed over the last 20 years, yet these often have not been adopted in the context of formal adaptation policies in Europe and elsewhere. Reasons and problems include: (i) a fragmentation of methods and tools, (ii) a lack of linkages to actual policy needs, (iii) a lack of understanding and communication of uncertainties, (iv) the often expert-based nature and complexity of methods used versus actual user demands, and (v) a lack of consistent data, definitions and metrics. Deliverable 2.2 put forward a rough prototype for a toolbox of methods for studying impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. In this deliverable, we discuss subsequent work on the MEDIATION toolbox, and report on application and testing of the improved methods and metrics in selected key European sectors and regions. We present feedback and improvement to methods and metrics based on input from case studies, stakeholders, and focus groups, as well as an overview of case study work and contribution to an improved MEDIATION toolbox. This input resulted in a number of conclusions relating to the development and use of methods and metrics, reducing uncertainty in CCIAV, and led to a number of changes, including the creation of a novel typology for classifying methods and models relating to CCIAV analysis. We provide an overview of the new typology, as well as the final toolbox, and summarize case study contributions towards improved methods and metrics