229 research outputs found

    Detecting Extreme Temperature Events Using Gaussian Mixture Models

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    Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution. Here, we applied Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) to daily near-surface maximum air temperature data from the historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations for 46 land regions defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using the multimodal distribution, we found that temperature extremes, defined based on daily data in the warmest mode of the GMM distributions, are getting more frequent in all regions. Globally, a 10-year extreme temperature event relative to 1985-2014 conditions will occur 13.6 times more frequently in the future under 3.0{\deg}C of Global Warming Levels (GWL). The frequency increase can be even higher in tropical regions, such that 10-year extreme temperature events will occur almost twice a week. Additionally, we analysed the change in future temperature distributions under different GWL and found that the hot temperatures are increasing faster than cold temperatures in low latitudes, while the cold temperatures are increasing faster than the hot temperatures in high latitudes. The smallest changes in temperature distribution can be found in tropical regions, where the annual temperature range is small. Our method captures the differences in geographical regions and shows that the frequency of extreme events will be even higher than reported in previous studies.Comment: 32 pages, 10 figure

    Study protocol:rehabilitation including social and physical activity and education in children and teenagers with cancer (RESPECT)

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    BACKGROUND: During cancer treatment children have reduced contact with their social network of friends, and have limited participation in education, sports, and leisure activities. During and following cancer treatment, children describe school related problems, reduced physical fitness, and problems related to interaction with peers. METHODS/DESIGN: The RESPECT study is a nationwide population-based prospective, controlled, mixed-methods intervention study looking at children aged 6-18 years newly diagnosed with cancer in eastern Denmark (n = 120) and a matched control group in western Denmark (n = 120). RESPECT includes Danish-speaking children diagnosed with cancer and treated at pediatric oncology units in Denmark. Primary endpoints are the level of educational achievement one year after the cessation of first-line cancer therapy, and the value of VO(2max) one year after the cessation of first-line cancer therapy. Secondary endpoints are quality of life measured by validated questionnaires and interviews, and physical performance. RESPECT includes a multimodal intervention program, including ambassador-facilitated educational, physical, and social interventions. The educational intervention includes an educational program aimed at the child with cancer, the child’s schoolteachers and classmates, and the child’s parents. Children with cancer will each have two ambassadors assigned from their class. The ambassadors visit the child with cancer at the hospital at alternating 2-week intervals and participate in the intervention program. The physical and social intervention examines the effect of early, structured, individualized, and continuous physical activity from diagnosis throughout the treatment period. The patients are tested at diagnosis, at 3 and 6 months after diagnosis, and one year after the cessation of treatment. The study is powered to quantify the impact of the combined educational, physical, and social intervention programs. DISCUSSION: RESPECT is the first population-based study to examine the effect of early rehabilitation for children with cancer, and to use healthy classmates as ambassadors to facilitate the normalization of social life in the hospital. For children with cancer, RESPECT contributes to expanding knowledge on rehabilitation that can also facilitate rehabilitation of other children undergoing hospitalization for long-term illness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials.gov: file. NCT01772849 and NCT0177286

    Primary Versus Secondary Contributions to Particle Number Concentrations in the European Boundary Layer

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    It is important to understand the relative contribution of primary and secondary particles to regional and global aerosol so that models can attribute aerosol radiative forcing to different sources. In large-scale models, there is considerable uncertainty associated with treatments of particle formation (nucleation) in the boundary layer (BL) and in the size distribution of emitted primary particles, leading to uncertainties in predicted cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. Here we quantify how primary particle emissions and secondary particle formation influence size-resolved particle number concentrations in the BL using a global aerosol microphysics model and aircraft and ground site observations made during the May 2008 campaign of the European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate Air Quality Interactions (EUCAARI). We tested four different parameterisations for BL nucleation and two assumptions for the emission size distribution of anthropogenic and wildfire carbonaceous particles. When we emit carbonaceous particles at small sizes (as recommended by the Aerosol Intercomparison project, AEROCOM), the spatial distributions of campaign-mean number concentrations of particles with diameter >50 nm (N50) and >100 nm (N100) were well captured by the model (R2≥0.8) and the normalised mean bias (NMB) was also small (−18% for N50 and −1% for N100). Emission of carbonaceous particles at larger sizes, which we consider to be more realistic for low spatial resolution global models, results in equally good correlation but larger bias (R2≥0.8, NMB = −52% and −29%), which could be partly but not entirely compensated by BL nucleation. Within the uncertainty of the observations and accounting for the uncertainty in the size of emitted primary particles, BL nucleation makes a statistically significant contribution to CCN-sized particles at less than a quarter of the ground sites. Our results show that a major source of uncertainty in CCN-sized particles in polluted European air is the emitted size of primary carbonaceous particles. New information is required not just from direct observations, but also to determine the "effective emission size" and composition of primary particles appropriate for different resolution models.JRC.H.2-Air and Climat
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