The CLIC Programme: Towards a Staged e+e- Linear Collider Exploring the Terascale : CLIC Conceptual Design Report

This report describes the exploration of fundamental questions in particle physics at the energy frontier with a future TeV-scale e+e- linear collider based on the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) two-beam acceleration technology. A high-luminosity high-energy e+e- collider allows for the exploration of Standard Model physics, such as precise measurements of the Higgs, top and gauge sectors, as well as for a multitude of searches for New Physics, either through direct discovery or indirectly, via high-precision observables. Given the current state of knowledge, following the observation of a 125 GeV Higgs-like particle at the LHC, and pending further LHC results at 8 TeV and 14 TeV, a linear e+e- collider built and operated in centre-of-mass energy stages from a few-hundred GeV up to a few TeV will be an ideal physics exploration tool, complementing the LHC. In this document, an overview of the physics potential of CLIC is given. Two example scenarios are presented for a CLIC accelerator built in three main stages of 500 GeV, 1.4 (1.5) TeV, and 3 TeV, together with operating schemes that will make full use of the machine capacity to explore the physics. The accelerator design, construction, and performance are presented, as well as the layout and performance of the experiments. The proposed staging example is accompanied by cost estimates of the accelerator and detectors and by estimates of operating parameters, such as power consumption. The resulting physics potential and measurement precisions are illustrated through detector simulations under realistic beam conditions.Comment: 84 pages, published as CERN Yellow Report https://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/147522

Estimation of uncertainty in flood forecasts - a comparison of methods

The scientific literature has many methods for estimating uncertainty, however, there is a lack of information about the characteristics, merits and limitations of the individual methods, particularly for making decisions in practice. This paper provides an overview of the different uncertainty methods for flood forecasting that are reported in literature, concentrating on two established approaches defined as the ensemble and the statistical approach. Owing to the variety of flood forecasting and warning systems in operation, the question ‘which uncertainty method is most suitable for which application’ is difficult to answer readily. The paper aims to assist practitioners in understanding how to match an uncertainty quantification method to their particular application using two flood forecasting system case studies in Belgium and Canada. These two specific applications of uncertainty estimation from the literature are compared, illustrating statistical and ensemble methods, and indicating the information and output that these two types of methods offer. The advantages, disadvantages and application of the two different types of method are identified. Although there is no one ‘best’ uncertainty method to fit all forecasting systems, this review helps to explain the current commonly used methods from the available literature for the non-specialist

Integrated fecal microbiome–metabolome signatures reflect stress and serotonin metabolism in irritable bowel syndrome

To gain insight into the complex microbiome-gut-brain axis in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) several modalities of biological and clinical data must be combined. We aimed to identify profiles of faecal microbiota and metabolites associated with IBS and to delineate specific phenotypes of IBS that represent potential pathophysiological mechanisms. Faecal metabolites were measured using proton Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (1H-NMR) spectroscopy and gut microbiome using Shotgun Metagenomic Sequencing (MGS) in a combined dataset of 142 IBS patients and 120 healthy controls (HC) with extensive clinical, biological and phenotype information. Data were analysed using support vector classification and regression and kernel t-SNE. Microbiome and metabolome profiles could distinguish IBS and HC with an area-under-the-receiver-operator-curve (AUC) of 77.3% and 79.5%, respectively, but this could be improved by combining microbiota and metabolites to 83.6%. No significant differences in predictive ability of the microbiome-metabolome data were observed between the three classical, stool pattern-based, IBS subtypes. However, unsupervised clustering showed distinct subsets of IBS patients based on faecal microbiome-metabolome data. These clusters could be related plasma levels of serotonin and its metabolite 5-hydroxyindoleacetate, effects of psychological stress on gastrointestinal symptoms, onset of IBS after stressful events, medical history of previous abdominal surgery, dietary caloric intake and IBS symptom duration. Furthermore, pathways in metabolic reaction networks were integrated with microbiota data, that reflect the host-microbiome interactions in IBS. The identified microbiome-metabolome signatures for IBS, associated with altered serotonin metabolism and unfavourable stress-response related to gastrointestinal symptoms, support the microbiota-gut-brain link in the pathogenesis of IBS

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction

Global QCD Analysis and the CTEQ Parton Distributions

The CTEQ program for the determination of parton distributions through a global QCD analysis of data for various hard scattering processes is fully described. A new set of distributions, CTEQ3, incorporating several new types of data is reported and compared to the two previous sets of CTEQ distributions. Comparison with current data is discussed in some detail. The remaining uncertainties in the parton distributions and methods to further reduce them are assessed. Comparisons with the results of other global analyses are also presented.Comment: (Change in Latex style only: 2up style removed since many don't have it.) 35 pages, 23 figures separately submitted as uuencoded compressed ps-file; Michigan State Report # MSU-HEP/41024 and CTEQ 40

Measuring Parton Densities in the Pomeron

We present a program to measure the parton densities in the pomeron using diffractive deep inelastic scattering and diffractive photoproduction, and to test the resulting parton densities by applying them to other processes such as the diffractive production of jets in hadron-hadron collisions. Since QCD factorization has been predicted NOT to apply to hard diffractive scattering, this program of fitting and using parton densities might be expected to fail. Its success or failure will provide useful information on the space-time structure of the pomeron.Comment: Contains revisions based on Phys. Rev. D referee comments. RevTeX version 3, epsf, 31 pages. Uuencoded compressed postscript figures appended. Uncompressed postscript files available at ftp://ftp.phys.psu.edu/pub/preprint/psuth136

The Azimuthal Decorrelation of Jets Widely Separated in Rapidity

This study reports the first measurement of the azimuthal decorrelation between jets with pseudorapidity separation up to five units. The data were accumulated using the D{\O}detector during the 1992--1993 collider run of the Fermilab Tevatron at $\sqrt{s}=$ 1.8 TeV. These results are compared to next--to--leading order (NLO) QCD predictions and to two leading--log approximations (LLA) where the leading--log terms are resummed to all orders in $\alpha_{\scriptscriptstyle S}$. The final state jets as predicted by NLO QCD show less azimuthal decorrelation than the data. The parton showering LLA Monte Carlo {\small HERWIG} describes the data well; an analytical LLA prediction based on BFKL resummation shows more decorrelation than the data.Comment: 6 pages with 4 figures, all uuencoded and gzippe

Search for Top Squark Pair Production in the Dielectron Channel

This report describes the first search for top squark pair production in the channel stop_1 stopbar_1 -> b bbar chargino_1 chargino_1 -> ee+jets+MEt using 74.9 +- 8.9 pb^-1 of data collected using the D0 detector. A 95% confidence level upper limit on sigma*B is presented. The limit is above the theoretical expectation for sigma*B for this process, but does show the sensitivity of the current D0 data set to a particular topology for new physics.Comment: Five pages, including three figures, submitted to PRD Brief Report