Extrapolation Theory and the Pricing of REIT Stocks

This paper is the winner of the best paper on Real Estate Investment Trusts award (sponsored by the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT)] presented at the 2005 American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting. This study evaluates the investment prospects of value stocks in the real estate investment trust (REIT) market. Value stocks are defined as those that carry low prices relative to their earnings, dividends, book assets, or other measures of fundamental value. The empirical results show that from 1990 onwards, value REITs provide superior returns without exposing investors to higher risks. The evidence is consistent with the extrapolation theory, which attributes the mispricing to investors over extrapolating past corporate results into the future. Interestingly, the findings reveal that such extrapolation is asymmetric in the REIT market. While value REITs are underpriced in accordance with the extrapolation theory, no evidence is found that growth REITs are overpriced. The value anomaly also exhibited several temporal traits. Firstly, the value premium varies over time. Secondly, the magnitude of the premium is inversely associated with the market performance. Finally, the value anomaly is not evident in the pricing of REITs in the 1980s.

Why Do People Act Like the Proverbial Ostrich? Investigating the Reasons That People Provide for Not Monitoring Their Goal Progress

Two studies examined peoples' reasons for not monitoring their progress toward their personal goals-a phenomenon that has been termed "the ostrich problem" (Webb et al., 2013). Study 1 used factor analysis to organize the reasons that people gave for not monitoring their goal progress, resulting in 10 factors. The most strongly endorsed reasons were: (a) that information on goal progress would demand a change in beliefs, or (b) undesired action; (c) that progress was poor, and (d) that thinking about and/or working on the goal was associated with negative emotions. Study 2 adopted a prospective design and investigated whether the reasons identified in Study 1 predicted: (a) the likelihood that participants would decline an opportunity to monitor their goal progress, and (b) the frequency with which participants monitored their goal progress. We found evidence that some of the most strongly endorsed reasons from Study 1 also predicted the avoidance of monitoring in Study 2; however, the belief that information about goal progress was likely to be inaccurate and not useful, and perceived control over goal attainment also reliably predicted the avoidance of monitoring in Study 2. Taken together, the findings explain why people do not monitor their goal progress and point to potential avenues for intervention

The effect of an online self-help cognitive behavioural intervention for insomnia on negative affect and paranoia: a randomised controlled trial

Background: Sleep and mental health go hand-in-hand, with problems sleeping being associated with a variety of mental health difficulties. Recently, insomnia has been linked with the experience of paranoia, a relationship that is likely to be mediated by negative affect. Given these links, the present research aimed to test whether a self-help intervention designed to improve sleep can also improve negative affect and paranoia. Method: Participants were recruited from a mailing list of University staff and were randomly allocated to one of three conditions; a wait-list control group, an active control group who completed a sleep diary each day for 6 weeks, and an experimental group who received an online self-help intervention targeting sleep problems alongside the same sleep diary. Levels of insomnia, negative affect, and paranoia were measured at baseline, immediately post-intervention, and 4- and 18-weeks post-intervention. Results: There were no significant differences between the groups on levels of insomnia, negative affect, and/or paranoid thinking at post-intervention, 4-weeks, or the 18-week follow-up. However, a relatively large number of participants dropped out of the study, particularly in the intervention group, which meant that the primary analysis was underpowered. Conclusion: Due to a high level of participant dropout, the findings from the present research are inconclusive, and suggest that retaining participants in trials of online interventions is a significant challenge that needs to be addressed in future research

Understanding the effects of time perspective: A meta-analysis testing a self-regulatory framework

Despite extensive evidence that time perspective is associated with a range of important outcomes across a variety of life domains (e.g., health, education, wealth), the question of why time perspective has such wide-reaching effects remains unknown. The present review proposes that self-regulatory processes can offer insight into why time perspective is linked to outcomes. To test this idea we classified measures of time perspective according to the dimension of time perspective that they reflected (e.g., past, present-hedonistic, future) and measures of self-regulation according to the self-regulatory process (i.e., goal setting, goal monitoring, and goal operating), ability, or outcome that they reflected. A systematic search identified 378 studies, reporting 2,000 tests of the associations between measures of time perspective and self-regulation. Random-effects meta-analyses with robust variance estimation found that a future time perspective had small-to-medium-sized positive associations with goal setting (r+ = 0.25), goal monitoring (r+ = 0.19), goal operating (r+ = 0.24), self-regulatory ability (r+ = 0.35), and outcomes (r+ = 0.18). Present time perspective, including being present-hedonistic and present-fatalistic, was negatively associated with self-regulatory processes, ability, and outcomes (r+ ranged from −0.00 to −0.27). Meta-analytic mediation models found that the relationship between future time perspective and outcomes was mediated by goal monitoring, goal operating, and self-regulatory ability, but not goal setting. As the first test of why time perspective is associated with key outcomes, the findings highlight the central role of self-regulation processes and abilities for understanding why people with certain time perspectives experience better outcomes

African-Americans in Standard Behavioral Treatment for Obesity, 2001-2015: What have we learned?

African Americans (AAs) bear a disproportionate burden of the obesity epidemic, yet have historically been underrepresented in weight loss research. We conducted a narrative review of large (N > 75) randomized prospective clinical trials of standard behavioral treatment for weight loss that reported results in the past 15 years (2001-2015) to (a) determine the rates of inclusion and reported results for AAs and (b) further identify strategies that may result in improved outcomes. Of the 23 trials reviewed, 69.6% of the studies met or exceeded population estimates for AAs in the United States. However, only 10 reported outcomes and/or considered race in the analytic approach. At 6 months, AA participants consistently lost less weight than White participants. The use of culturally tailored intervention materials and monthly personal telephone calls were reported as factors that may have enhanced treatment response. Future behavioral weight loss trials should also increase reporting of outcomes by race

How effective are interventions designed to help owners to change their behaviour so as to manage the weight of their companion dogs? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: The present review sought to evaluate whether – and to what extent – targeting owners’ behaviour is an effective way to reduce the problem of overweight and obesity among companion dogs. Methods: A systematic search of electronic databases identified 14 studies that evaluated the effect of an intervention targeting owners’ behaviour on (i) the owner's behaviour or (ii) the weight, (iii) body fat, or (iv) body condition of the dog. We coded aspects of the study design (e.g., the outcome variable), intervention (e.g., use of theory, specific behaviour change techniques or BCTs, inclusion of nutritional intervention alongside the behavioural intervention), and sample (e.g., age, gender, and weight of the dogs at baseline) that could influence the effect sizes. Results: The interventions had, on average, a medium sized effect on outcomes (d+= 0.59, 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.96, k = 14, N = 384). The effect sizes from the primary studies were relatively homogenous, Q(13) = 12.10, p =.52 and the nature of the intervention, methodological and sample characteristics did not moderate the effect sizes. Conclusions and clinical relevance: The findings of the review suggest that targeting owners’ behaviour can be an effective way to reduce overweight and obesity among companion dogs. However, this conclusion is based on a limited number of studies and so we hope that the present findings serve as the impetus for further research in this area

Behaviour change techniques for telephone-delivered and supported health coaching interventions

This Evidence Check review examined the effectiveness of specific behaviour change techniques (BCTs) delivered by telephone in two areas: promoting healthy weight; and supporting parents. The review found that telephone-delivered interventions to promote healthy weight can be effectively used to change physical activity levels and improve diet. Interventions designed to support parents have been shown to improve both children’s behaviour and parents’ wellbeing. None of the included studies identified specific tools to determine which BCTs should be employed and when. The authors recommend the systematic use of theory to identify behavioural determinants and select the most effective BCT

Modification and application of TOUGH2 as a variable-density, saturated-flow code and comparison to SWIFT II results

Human intrusion scenarios at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) involve penetration of the repository and an underlying brine reservoir by a future borehole. Brine and gas from the brine reservoir and the repository may flow up the borehole and into the overlying Culebra formation, which is saturated with water containing different amounts of dissolved `solids resulting in a spatially varying density. Current modeling approaches involve perturbing a steady-state Culebra flow field by inflow of gas and/or brine from a breach borehole that has passed through the repository. Previous studies simulating steady-state flow in the Culebra have been done. One specific study by LaVenue et al. (1990) used the SWIFT 2 code, a single-phase flow and transport code, to develop the steady-state flow field. Because gas may also be present in the fluids from the intrusion borehole, a two-phase code such as TOUGH2 can be used to determine the effect that emitted fluids may have on the steady-state Culebra flow field. Thus a comparison between TOUGH2 and SWIFT2 was prompted. In order to compare the two codes and to evaluate the influence of gas on flow in the Culebra, modifications were made to TOUGH2. Modifications were performed by the authors to allow for element-specific values of permeability, porosity, and elevation. The analysis also used a new equation of state module for a water-brine-air mixture, EOS7 (Pruess, 1991), which was developed to simulate variable water densities by assuming a miscible mixture of water and brine phases and allows for element-specific brine concentration in the INCON file

The impact of post-migration stressors on refugees' emotional distress and health: A longitudinal analysis

Refugees often experience poor physical and mental health outcomes following resettlement. These outcomes have been linked to the conditions that are experienced by refugees in the post-migration context, but little is known about the mechanisms by which these conditions influence health. We therefore conducted secondary analyses of the Survey of New Refugees, a large longitudinal study commissioned by the U.K. Home Office with data collected at four time points spanning 21 months. Refugees’ experience of emotional distress such as feeling stressed, worried, and depressed fully mediated the relationship between post-migration stressors and longitudinal general health. There was no evidence that perceived social support influenced this relationship. These findings suggest that emotional distress contributes to poor health outcomes among refugees and thus that interventions might target emotional distress

Do people choose the same strategies to regulate other people’s emotions as they choose to regulate their own?

How do people choose how to regulate others’ emotional responses? We extended previous work on how the intensity of an emotional situation influences which strategies people choose to regulate their emotions (i.e., intrapersonal emotion regulation choice) to also consider the effect of intensity on which strategies people choose to regulate other people’s emotions (i.e., interpersonal emotion regulation choice). Studies 1a and 1b found that the intensity of the emotional situation influenced whether participants chose distraction or reappraisal in both intrapersonal and interpersonal regulation contexts, but also that the effect of intensity differed between the contexts (participants choose reappraisal more frequently for others in intense situations than for themselves). However, this difference was stronger (or only found) when participants helped the other person to control their emotions first. Two further studies examined whether differences in perceived intensity (Study 2) and/or the anticipated effort or effectiveness of the strategies (Study 3) could explain the difference between intrapersonal and interpersonal contexts. Together, the findings suggest that the regulation strategies that people choose depend on the intensity of the emotional situation, the target of regulation, and whether people choose how to regulate their own emotions before choosing how to regulate another person’s emotions, with preliminary evidence that differences between intrapersonal and interpersonal emotion regulation choice may be associated with differences in the anticipated effort and effectiveness of regulation between these contexts