Seismotectonic model and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea (PNG) lies in a belt of intense tectonic activity that experiences high levels of seismicity. Although this seismicity poses signifcant risks to society, the Building Code of PNG and its underpinning seismic loading requirements have not been revised since 1982. This study aims to partially address this gap by updating the seismic zoning map on which the earthquake loading component of the building code is based. We performed a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for PNG using the OpenQuake software developed by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (Pagani et al. in Seism Res Lett 85(3):692–702, 2014). Among other enhancements, for the frst time together with background sources, individual fault sources are implemented to represent active major and microplate boundaries in the region to better constrain the earthquake-rate and seismic-source models. The seismic-source model also models intraslab, Wadati–Beniof zone seismicity in a more realistic way using a continuous slab volume to constrain the fnite ruptures of such events. The results suggest a high level of hazard in the coastal areas of the Huon Peninsula and the New Britain–Bougainville region, and a relatively low level of hazard in the southwestern part of mainland PNG. In comparison with the seismic zonation map in the current design standard, it can be noted that the spatial distribution of seismic hazard used for building design does not match the bedrock hazard distribution of this study. In particular, the high seismic hazard of the Huon Peninsula in the revised assessment is not captured in the current building code of PNG.This work was funded by the Australian Aid program administered by the Australian High Commission in Port Moresby under Record of Understanding No. 51172 between Geoscience Australia and the Department of Foreign Afairs and Trade

The European Seismic Risk Model 2020 (ESRM20)

This study describes the development of the various components of the European Seismic Risk Model 2020 (ESRM2020) which will be able to generate, using open-source software developed by the GEM Foundation (the Open Quake-engine), a number of Europe-wide risk metrics including average annualised human and economic losses (AAL), probable maximum losses (PML), and risk maps showing the losses for specific return periods or scenario events. The latest developments towards pan-European exposure models for residential and non-residential buildings and fragility/vulnerability models for damage, economic loss and casualty assessment will be presented. For engineered buildings within the exposure model (reinforced concrete, steel), a simulated design is undertaken using the key aspects of seismic design codes in force across Europe over the past 100 years. The designed MDOF building is then transformed to a SDOF model and nonlinear dynamic analyses are run using a large number of ground motion records, after which cloud analysis is used to develop the fragility functions. For non-engineered buildings (unreinforced masonry, confined masonry, adobe), the SDOF models have been directly developed from simplified formulae, experimental tests and previous studies. Collaboration from local experts at various stages of the model development, initiated through workshops, is an important component of the model, as well as the extensive calibration and validation

S6 kinase localizes to the presynaptic active zone and functions with PDK1 to control synapse development

S6 kinase localizes to the active zone in a Brp-dependent manner and collaborates with presynaptic PDK1 to modulate neuronal cell size, bouton size, active zone number, and neurotransmitter release

A ground motion logic tree for seismic hazard analysis in the stable cratonic region of Europe: regionalisation, model selection and development of a scaled backbone approach

Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.Horizon 2020 Framework Programme http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum - GFZ (4217

Identifying the needs and future directions of seismic hazard for probabilistic infrastructure risk analysis

The vulnerability of urban infrastructure to both ground shaking and geotechnical failure during large earthquakes has been demonstrated by recent earthquakes such as the 2010 - 2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (New Zealand, 2010 - 2011) or 2010 Haiti event. Probabilistic seismic risk analysis to infrastructure systems requires the characterisation of both the transient shaking and permanent ground deformation elements of the hazard, and must do so incorporating both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and the spatial correlations and dependencies that are inherent in both of these aspects. Recent developments in characterisation of spatial correlation and cross-correlation in the ground motion uncertainties form the foundations of a comprehensive Monte Carlo-based methodology for analysis of seismic risk to spatially extended systems. New research directions are needed, however, in order to ensure that secondary hazard aspects are incorporated in the same way. These include the treatment of site amplification of the ground shaking, the modelling of permanent ground deformation from slope displacement and liquefaction, and permanent displacement due to coseismic slip on and around the fault rupture. Key considerations for integrated probabilistic framework for physically-realistic characterisation of the ground shaking and permanent ground displacement are illustrated using the example of simulation spatially correlated fault slip on an active fault rupture in a manner that can be integrated within a Monte Carlo-based probabilistic seismic hazard methodology.Non UBCUnreviewedThis collection contains the proceedings of ICASP12, the 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering held in Vancouver, Canada on July 12-15, 2015. Abstracts were peer-reviewed and authors of accepted abstracts were invited to submit full papers. Also full papers were peer reviewed. The editor for this collection is Professor Terje Haukaas, Department of Civil Engineering, UBC Vancouver.Researche

A ground motion logic tree for seismic hazard analysis in the stable cratonic region of Europe: regionalisation, model selection and development of a scaled backbone approach

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.</jats:p&gt

A regionally-adaptable “scaled backbone” ground motion logic tree for shallow seismicity in Europe: application to the 2020 European seismic hazard model

The selection of ground motion models, and the representation of their epistemic uncertainty in the form of a logic tree, is one of the fundamental components of probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis. A new ground motion model (GMM) logic tree has been developed for the 2020 European seismic hazard model, which develops upon recently compiled ground motion data sets in Europe. In contrast to previous European seismic hazard models, the new ground model logic tree is built around the scaled backbone concept. Epistemic uncertainties are represented as calibrations to a reference model and aim to characterise the potential distributions of median ground motions resulting from variability in source scaling and attenuation. These scaled backbone logic trees are developed and presented for shallow crustal seismic sources in Europe. Using the new European strong motion flatfile, and capitalising on recent perspectives in ground motion modelling in the scientific literature, a general and transferable procedure is presented for the construction of a backbone model and the regionalisation of epistemic uncertainty. This innovative approach forms a general framework for revising and updating the GMM logic tree at national and European scale as new strong motion data emerge in the future.Horizon 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/50110000760

A regionally-adaptable ground-motion model for shallow crustal earthquakes in Europe

To complement the new European Strong-Motion dataset and the ongoing efforts to update the seismic hazard and risk assessment of Europe and Mediterranean regions, we propose a new regionally adaptable ground-motion model (GMM). We present here the GMM capable of predicting the 5% damped RotD50 of PGA, PGV, and SA(T = 0.01 − 8 s) from shallow crustal earthquakes of 3 ≤ M W ≤ 7.4 occurring 0 < RJB ≤ 545 km away from sites with 90 ≤ Vs30 ≤ 3000 m s−1 or 0.001 ≤ slope ≤ 1 m m−1. The extended applicability derived from thousands of new recordings, however, comes with an apparent increase in the aleatory variability (σ). Firstly, anticipating contaminations and peculiarities in the dataset, we employed robust mixed-effect regressions to down weigh only, and not elimi nate entirely, the influence of outliers on the GMM median and σ. Secondly, we regionalised the attenuating path and localised the earthquake sources using the most recent models, to quantify region-specific anelastic attenuation and locality-specific earthquake characteristics as random-effects, respectively. Thirdly, using the mixed-effect variance–covariance structure, the GMM can be adapted to new regions, localities, and sites with specific datasets. Consequently, the σ is curtailed to a 7% increase at T < 0.3 s, and a sub stantial 15% decrease at T ≥ 0.3 s, compared to the RESORCE based partially non-ergodic GMM. We provide the 46 attenuating region-, 56 earthquake localities-, and 1829 site-spe cific adjustments, demonstrate their usage, and present their robustness through a 10-fold cross-validation exercise.SIGMA2 consortium (EDF, CEA, PG&E, SwissNuclear,. Areva, CEZ, CRIEPI)H2020 Research Infrastructures http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/10001066