Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the "high hazardous" category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8°C (initial water temperature above 24°C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures

The Association between Supraphysiologic Arterial Oxygen Levels and Mortality in Critically Ill Patients. A Multicenter Observational Cohort Study.

Rationale: There is conflicting evidence on harm related to exposure to supraphysiologic PaO2 (hyperoxemia) in critically ill patients.Objectives: To examine the association between longitudinal exposure to hyperoxemia and mortality in patients admitted to ICUs in five United Kingdom university hospitals.Methods: A retrospective cohort of ICU admissions between January 31, 2014, and December 31, 2018, from the National Institute of Health Research Critical Care Health Informatics Collaborative was studied. Multivariable logistic regression modeled death in ICU by exposure to hyperoxemia.Measurements and Main Results: Subsets with oxygen exposure windows of 0 to 1, 0 to 3, 0 to 5, and 0 to 7 days were evaluated, capturing 19,515, 10,525, 6,360, and 4,296 patients, respectively. Hyperoxemia dose was defined as the area between the PaO2 time curve and a boundary of 13.3 kPa (100 mm Hg) divided by the hours of potential exposure (24, 72, 120, or 168 h). An association was found between exposure to hyperoxemia and ICU mortality for exposure windows of 0 to 1 days (odds ratio [OR], 1.15; 95% compatibility interval [CI], 0.95-1.38; P = 0.15), 0 to 3 days (OR 1.35; 95% CI, 1.04-1.74; P = 0.02), 0 to 5 days (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.07-2.13; P = 0.02), and 0 to 7 days (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.11-2.72; P = 0.02). However, a dose-response relationship was not observed. There was no evidence to support a differential effect between hyperoxemia and either a respiratory diagnosis or mechanical ventilation.Conclusions: An association between hyperoxemia and mortality was observed in our large, unselected multicenter cohort. The absence of a dose-response relationship weakens causal interpretation. Further experimental research is warranted to elucidate this important question

Regional models of the influence of human disturbance and habitat quality on the distribution of breeding territories of common ringed plover Charadrius hiaticula and Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus

We estimated the influence of human disturbance and environmental factors on territory establishment in common ringed plovers Charadrius hiaticula and Eurasian oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus, to inform the conservation of these species. We examined a 212 km stretch of coastline in the United Kingdom in 2003, mapping all breeding pairs of both study species, as well as the environmental characteristics of beaches and locations of visitors on the beach, the latter measured by filming from a light aircraft. Of the 1,003 200 m sections of beach surveyed, 183 contained ringed plover territories (267 breeding pairs) and 117 contained oystercatcher territories (226 breeding pairs). 38,634 human visitors to the beach were mapped from three flights. Population densities of both ringed plovers and oystercatchers were lower in locations with high visitor numbers, even when accounting for the influence of the environmental characteristics of the beach. The two bird species showed similar rates of territory establishment at very low visitor rates, but oystercatchers showed a stronger negative response when visitor rates reached higher levels. Binary logistic regression models were used to identify areas where the birds would benefit most from reductions in the number of visitors and we illustrate how this information could be used to inform management around sites otherwise favourable for territory establishment

The PTTG1-binding factor (PBF/PTTG1IP) regulates p53 activity in thyroid cells

The PTTG1-Binding Factor (PBF/PTTG1IP) has an emerging repertoire of roles, especially in thyroid biology, and functions as a proto-oncogene. High PBF expression is independently associated with poor prognosis and lower disease-specific survival in human thyroid cancer. However, the precise role of PBF in thyroid tumorigenesis is unclear. Here, we present extensive evidence demonstrating that PBF is a novel regulator of p53, a tumor suppressor protein with a key role in maintaining genetic stability, which is infrequently mutated in differentiated thyroid cancer. By coimmunoprecipitation and proximity ligation assays, we show that PBF binds specifically to p53 in thyroid cells, and significantly represses transactivation of responsive promoters. Further, we identify that PBF decreases p53 stability by enhancing ubiquitination, which appears dependent on the E3 ligase activity of Mdm2. Impaired p53 function was evident in a transgenic mouse model with thyroid-specific PBF over-expression (PBF-Tg), which had significantly increased genetic instability as indicated by FISSR-PCR analysis. Consistent with this, ~40% of all DNA repair genes examined were repressed in PBF-Tg primary cultures, including genes with critical roles in maintaining genomic integrity such as Mgmt, Rad51 and Xrcc3. Our data also revealed that PBF induction resulted in upregulation of the E2 enzyme Rad6 in murine thyrocytes, and was associated with Rad6 expression in human thyroid tumors. Overall, this work provides novel insights into the role of the proto-oncogene PBF as a negative regulator of p53 function in thyroid tumorigenesis, where PBF is generally over-expressed and p53 mutations are rare compared to other tumor types

Recent Region-wide Declines in Caribbean Reef Fish Abundance

Profound ecological changes are occurring on coral reefs throughout the tropics, with marked coral cover losses and concomitant algal increases, particularly in the Caribbean region. Historical declines in the abundance of large Caribbean reef fishes likely reflect centuries of overexploitation. However, effects of drastic recent degradation of reef habitats on reef fish assemblages have yet to be established. By using meta-analysis, we analyzed time series of reef fish density obtained from 48 studies that include 318 reefs across the Caribbean and span the time period 1955–2007. Our analyses show that overall reef fish density has been declining significantly for more than a decade, at rates that are consistent across all subregions of the Caribbean basin (2.7% to 6.0% loss per year) and in three of six trophic groups. Changes in fish density over the past half-century are modest relative to concurrent changes in benthic cover on Caribbean reefs. However, the recent significant decline in overall fish abundance and its consistency across several trophic groups and among both fished and nonfished species indicate that Caribbean fishes have begun to respond negatively to habitat degradation

The Roles Of State And Non-State Actors In Early Warning And Early Action

In early warning and early action (EWEA), the active participation of non-state actors is imperative to the design and dissemination of effective warnings and in ensuring that life-saving preparedness measures are actioned when alerts are issued. Regrettably, there is often a lack of collaboration between state and non-state actors in the development and coordination of early action plans for extreme weather and climate-related events. This document provides an overview of the state and non-state actors involved in building effective, people-centred, inclusive and resilient early warning systems (EWS) at the local, national, and international levels (as depicted in Figure 1). It also outlines their specific roles and contributions across the four key areas of the early warning system value chain (as illustrated in Figure 2). Additionally, this document encompasses eight essential recommendations (R1-R8) aimed at international organisations, national governments and other actors involved in developing and providing early warnings and/or early action to improve the willingness and efficacy of EWEA actors to collaborate and ensure a comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction and response. These recommendations are accompanied by a set of actions designed for various stakeholders engaged in early warning systems EWS. The actions are intended to facilitate the broader adoption, utilisation, and sustainability of the recommendation

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability