Scaling collapse and structure functions: identifying self-affinity in finite length time series

Empirical determination of the scaling properties and exponents of time series presents a formidable challenge in testing, and developing, a theoretical understanding of turbulence and other out-of-equilibrium phenomena. We discuss the special case of self affine time series in the context of a stochastic process. We highlight two complementary approaches to the differenced variable of the data: i) attempting a scaling collapse of the Probability Density Functions which should then be well described by the solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation and ii) using structure functions to determine the scaling properties of the higher order moments. We consider a method of conditioning that recovers the underlying self affine scaling in a finite length time series, and illustrate it using a Lévy flight

Using the <i>aa</i> index over the last 14 solar cycles to characterize extreme geomagnetic activity

Geomagnetic indices are routinely used to characterize space weather event intensity. The DST index is well resolved, but is only available over 5 solar cycles. The aa index extends over 14 cycles but is highly discretized with poorly resolved extremes. We parameterize extreme aa activity by the annual averaged top few % of observed values, show these are exponentially distributed and they track annual DST index minima. This gives a 14 cycle average of ~ 4% chance of at least one great (DST nT) storm and ~ 28% chance of at least one severe (DST nT) storm per year. At least one DST=‐809 [‐663,‐955] nT event in a given year would be a 1:151 year event. Carrington event estimate DST ~ ‐850 nT is within the same distribution as other extreme activity seen in aa since 1868 so that its likelihood can be deduced from that of more moderate events. Events with DST ≲ ‐1000 nT are in a distinct class, requiring special conditions

Mechanisms Regulating the Association of Protein Phosphatase 1 with Spinophilin and Neurabin

Protein phosphorylation is a key mediator of signal transduction, allowing for dynamic regulation of substrate activity. Whereas protein kinases obtain substrate specificity by targeting specific amino acid sequences, serine/threonine phosphatase catalytic subunits are much more promiscuous in their ability to dephosphorylate substrates. To obtain substrate specificity, serine/threonine phosphatases utilize targeting proteins to regulate phosphatase subcellular localization and catalytic activity. Spinophilin and its homologue neurabin are two of the most abundant dendritic spine-localized protein phosphatase 1 (PP1) targeting proteins. The association between spinophilin and PP1 is increased in the striatum of animal models of Parkinson's disease (PD). However, mechanisms that regulate the association of spinophilin and neurabin with PP1 are unclear. Here, we report that the association between spinophilin and PP1α or PP1γ1 was increased by CDK5 expression and activation in a heterologous cell system. This increased association is at least partially due to phosphorylation of PP1. Conversely, CDK5 expression and activation decreased the association of PP1 with neurabin. As with dopamine depletion, methamphetamine (METH) abuse causes persistent alterations in dopamine signaling which influence striatal medium spiny neuron function and biochemistry. Moreover, both METH toxicity and dopamine depletion are associated with deficits in motor control and motor learning. Pathologically, we observed a decreased association of spinophilin with PP1 in rat striatum evaluated one month following a binge METH paradigm. Behaviorally, we found that loss of spinophilin recapitulates rotarod pathology previously observed in dopamine-depleted and METH-treated animals. Together, these data have implications in multiple disease states associated with altered dopamine signaling such as PD and psychostimulant drug abuse and delineate a novel mechanism by which PP1 interactions with spinophilin and neurabin may be differentially regulated

Efficient Bayesian inference for natural time series using ARFIMA processes

Many geophysical quantities, such as atmospheric temperature, water levels in rivers, and wind speeds, have shown evidence of long memory (LM). LM implies that these quantities experience non-trivial temporal memory, which potentially not only enhances their predictability, but also hampers the detection of externally forced trends. Thus, it is important to reliably identify whether or not a system exhibits LM. In this paper we present a modern and systematic approach to the inference of LM. We use the flexible autoregressive fractional integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model, which is widely used in time series analysis, and of increasing interest in climate science. Unlike most previous work on the inference of LM, which is frequentist in nature, we provide a systematic treatment of Bayesian inference. In particular, we provide a new approximate likelihood for efficient parameter inference, and show how nuisance parameters (e.g., short-memory effects) can be integrated over in order to focus on long-memory parameters and hypothesis testing more directly. We illustrate our new methodology on the Nile water level data and the central England temperature (CET) time series, with favorable comparison to the standard estimators. For CET we also extend our method to seasonal long memory

Scaling in long term data sets of geomagnetic indices and solar wind ϵ as seen by WIND spacecraft

We study scaling in fluctuations of the geomagnetic indices (AE, AU, and AL) that provide a measure of magnetospheric activity and of the ε parameter which is a measure of the solar wind driver. Generalized structure function (GSF) analysis shows that fluctuations exhibit self-similar scaling up to about 1 hour for the AU index and about 2 hours for AL, AE and ε when the most extreme fluctuations over 10 standard deviations are excluded. The scaling exponents of the GSF are found to be similar for the three AE indices, and to differ significantly from that of ε. This is corroborated by direct comparison of their rescaled probability density functions

Culture creates genetic structure in the Caucasus: Autosomal, mitochondrial, and Y-chromosomal variation in Daghestan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Near the junction of three major continents, the Caucasus region has been an important thoroughfare for human migration. While the Caucasus Mountains have diverted human traffic to the few lowland regions that provide a gateway from north to south between the Caspian and Black Seas, highland populations have been isolated by their remote geographic location and their practice of patrilocal endogamy. We investigate how these cultural and historical differences between highland and lowland populations have affected patterns of genetic diversity. We test 1) whether the highland practice of patrilocal endogamy has generated sex-specific population relationships, and 2) whether the history of migration and military conquest associated with the lowland populations has left Central Asian genes in the Caucasus, by comparing genetic diversity and pairwise population relationships between Daghestani populations and reference populations throughout Europe and Asia for autosomal, mitochondrial, and Y-chromosomal markers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that the highland Daghestani populations had contrasting histories for the mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosome data sets. Y-chromosomal haplogroup diversity was reduced among highland Daghestani populations when compared to other populations and to highland Daghestani mitochondrial DNA haplogroup diversity. Lowland Daghestani populations showed Turkish and Central Asian affinities for both mitochondrial and Y-chromosomal data sets. Autosomal population histories are strongly correlated to the pattern observed for the mitochondrial DNA data set, while the correlation between the mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosome distance matrices was weak and not significant.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The reduced Y-chromosomal diversity exhibited by highland Daghestani populations is consistent with genetic drift caused by patrilocal endogamy. Mitochondrial and Y-chromosomal phylogeographic comparisons indicate a common Near Eastern origin of highland populations. Lowland Daghestani populations show varying influence from Near Eastern and Central Asian populations.</p

Efficacy of a self-help manual in increasing resilience in carers of adults with depression in Thailand

Caring for a person with a mental illness can have adverse effects on caregivers; however, little is known about how best to help such caregivers. The aim of the present study was to examine the efficacy of a cognitive behaviour therapy-guided self-help manual in increasing resilience in caregivers of individuals with depression, in comparison to caregivers who receive routine support only. A randomized, controlled trial was conducted, following CONSORT guidelines, with 54 caregivers allocated to parallel intervention (self-help manual) (n = 27) or control (standard support) (n = 27) groups. Resilience was assessed at baseline, post-test (week 8), and follow up (week 12). Intention-to-treat analyses were undertaken. Repeated-measures ANOVA indicated a significant difference in resilience scores between the three time points, showing a large effect. Pairwise comparisons between intervention and control groups indicated resilience to be significantly different between baseline and post-test, and between baseline and follow up, but not between post-test and follow up. Overall, the intervention group showed a slightly greater increase in resilience over time than the control group; however, the time–group interaction was not significant. Guided self-help is helpful in improving caregivers’ resilience and could be used as an adjunct to the limited support provided to carers by mental health nurses and other clinicians

Magnetic Topology of Actively Evolving and Passively Convecting Structures in the Turbulent Solar Wind

Multipoint in situ observations of the solar wind are used to identify the magnetic topology and current density of turbulent structures. We find that at least 35% of all structures are both actively evolving and carrying the strongest currents, actively dissipating, and heating the plasma. These structures are comprised of ~1/5 3D plasmoids, ~3/5 flux ropes, and ~1/5 3D X points consistent with magnetic reconnection. Actively evolving and passively advecting structures are both close to log-normally distributed. This provides direct evidence for the significant role of strong turbulence, evolving via magnetic shearing and reconnection, in mediating dissipation and solar wind heating

School violence, school differences and school discourses

This article highlights one strand of a study which investigated the concept of the violenceresilient school. In six inner-city secondary schools, data on violent incidents in school and violent crime in the neighbourhood were gathered, and compared with school practices to minimise violence, accessed through interviews. Some degree of association between the patterns of behaviour and school practices was found: schools with a wider range of wellconnected practices seemed to have less difficult behaviour. Interviews also showed that the different schools had different organisational discourses for construing school violence, its possible causes and the possible solutions. Differences in practices are best understood in connection with differences in these discourses. Some of the features of school discourses are outlined, including their range, their core metaphor and their silences. We suggest that organisational discourse is an important concept in explaining school effects and school differences, and that improvement attempts could have clearer regard to this concept

The association of spinophilin with disks large-associated protein 3 (SAPAP3) is regulated by metabotropic glutamate receptor (mGluR) 5

Spinophilin is the most abundant protein phosphatase 1 targeting protein in the postsynaptic density of dendritic spines. Spinophilin associates with myriad synaptic proteins to regulate normal synaptic communication; however, the full complement of spinophilin interacting proteins and mechanisms regulating spinophilin interactions are unclear. Here we validate an association between spinophilin and the scaffolding protein, disks large-associated protein 3 (SAP90/PSD-95 associated protein 3; SAPAP3). Loss of SAPAP3 leads to obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD)-like behaviors due to alterations in metabotropic glutamate receptor (mGluR) signaling. Here we report that spinophilin associates with SAPAP3 in the brain and in a heterologous cell system. Moreover, we have found that expression or activation of group I mGluRs along with activation of the mGluR-dependent kinase, protein kinase C β, enhances this interaction. Functionally, global loss of spinophilin attenuates amphetamine-induced hyperlocomotion, a striatal behavior associated with dopamine dysregulation and OCD. Together, these data delineate a novel link between mGluR signaling, spinophilin, and SAPAP3 in striatal pathophysiology