World crude oil resources : evidence from estimating supply functions for 41 countries

Evidence to support or deny expectations of future scarcity or abundance of crude oil must show whether crude oil supply functions are shifting and, if so, in what direction. The authors estimate oil supply functions for 41 countries for which suitable data are available. Because of the poor quality of data, especially for reserves, the model specification is simple. Their model relates reserve additions to the imputed"in situ"price of discovered but undeveloped reserves and to the passage of time. The passage of time is a surrogate for measuring the net impact on supply conditions of the chance of finding oil, resource depletion, cost efficiency, and technology. Time's impact could be expansionary or contractionary. They test two main versions of the model, one a straightforward linear function, the other nonlinear, assuming decreasing returns. Both models yield similar results. In most cases the models fit the data reasonably closely, after adjustment for outliers. The complete model results show 26 countries with statistically significant shifts in supply functions -in almost equal parts expansionary and contractionary. The shift is often contractionary in countries with a long production history (including Burma, Trinidad and Tobago, and the United States). Some are OPEC countries, to which a model specification involving market price response does not properly apply. Tests on a small sample of countries for differences between earlier and later periods reveal limited evidence of an expansionary shift from 1980 onward. There is partial evidence that lower oil prices stimulate productivity. The authors suggest that a gloomy outlook for non-OPEC supply is unwarranted. Several countries are still in an expansionary phase. Others show no evidence of entering a period of decline. And countries in a contractionary phase will continue to add to reserves. Further research requires improving the database rather than employing more elaborate models.Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Health Economics&Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access,Oil Refining&Gas Industry

The Alternating Surface Segmented Lap Joint: a Design for Thin Highly Loaded Joints

The combination of thin airfoil sections and high aerodynamic loads on many wind tunnel models presents a major problem for attachment of flap elements. Conventional methods of attaching fixed control elements such as lap and tongue-in-groove joints are not rigid enough to provide surface continuity required in high Reynolds number research. For the extreme cases, the solution has been to fabricate separate wings for each flap setting with the flap element being and integral part of the wing. Here an attractive solution to this problem, the alternating surface segmented lap joint, is discussed. This joint provides increased rigidity and lower stress levels than conventional joints. Additionally, attachment fastener loading is low and the joint can be designed to accommodate high shear levels due to bending without the use of dowel pins

Investigation of Low-temperature Solders for Cryogenic Wind Tunnel Models

The advent of high Reynolds number cryogenic wind tunnels has forced alteration of manufacturing and assembly techniques and eliminated usage of many materials associated with conventional wind tunnel models. One of the techniques affected is soldering. Solder alloys commonly used for wind tunnel models are susceptible to low-temperature embrittlement and phase transformation. The low-temperature performance of several solder alloys is being examined during research and development activities being conducted in support of design and fabrication of cryogenic wind tunnel models. Among the properties examined during these tests are shear strength, surface quality, joint stability, and durability when subjected to dynamic loading. Results of these tests and experiences with recent models are summarized

Comment on Bramwell et al, "Universal Fluctuations in Correlated Systems"

This is a comment on "Universal Fluctuations in Correlated Systems", by Bramwell et al, Phys. Rev. Lett., 84, 3744 (2000.Comment: To appear in Phys. Rev. Let

Signatures of dual scaling regimes in a simple avalanche model for magnetospheric activity

Recently, the paradigm that the dynamic magnetosphere displays sandpile-type phenomenology has been advanced, in which energy dissipation is by means of avalanches which do not have an intrinsic scale. This may in turn imply that the system is in a self-organised critical (SOC) state. Indicators of internal processes are consistent with this, examples are the power-law dependence of the power spectrum of auroral indices, and in situ magnetic field observations in the earth's geotail. However substorm statistics exhibit probability distributions with characteristic scales. In this paper we discuss a simple sandpile model which yields for energy discharges due to internal reorganisation a probability distribution that is a power-law, whereas systemwide discharges (flow of “sand” out of the system) form a distinct group whose probability distribution has a well defined mean. When the model is analysed over its full dynamic range, two regimes having different inverse power-law statistics emerge. These correspond to reconfigurations on two distinct length scales: short length scales sensitive to the discrete nature of the sandpile model, and long length scales up to the system size which correspond to the continuous limit of the model. The latter are anticipated to correspond to large-scale systems such as the magnetosphere. Since the energy inflow may be highly variable, the response of the sandpile model is examined under strong or variable loading and it is established that the power-law signature of the large-scale internal events persists. The interval distribution of these events is also discussed

Extremum statistics: a framework for data analysis

Recent work has suggested that in highly correlated systems, such as sandpiles, turbulent fluids, ignited trees in forest fires and magnetization in a ferromagnet close to a critical point, the probability distribution of a global quantity (i.e. total energy dissipation, magnetization and so forth) that has been normalized to the first two moments follows a specific non-Gaussian curve. This curve follows a form suggested by extremum statistics, which is specified by a single parameter a (a = 1 corresponds to the Fisher-Tippett Type I (“Gumbel”) distribution). Here we present a framework for testing for extremal statistics in a global observable. In any given system, we wish to obtain a, in order to distinguish between the different Fisher-Tippett asymptotes, and to compare with the above work. The normalizations of the extremal curves are obtained as a function of a. We find that for realistic ranges of data, the various extremal distributions, when normalized to the first two moments, are difficult to distinguish. In addition, the convergence to the limiting extremal distributions for finite data sets is both slow and varies with the asymptote. However, when the third moment is expressed as a function of a, this is found to be a more sensitive method

Scaling collapse and structure functions: identifying self-affinity in finite length time series

Empirical determination of the scaling properties and exponents of time series presents a formidable challenge in testing, and developing, a theoretical understanding of turbulence and other out-of-equilibrium phenomena. We discuss the special case of self affine time series in the context of a stochastic process. We highlight two complementary approaches to the differenced variable of the data: i) attempting a scaling collapse of the Probability Density Functions which should then be well described by the solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation and ii) using structure functions to determine the scaling properties of the higher order moments. We consider a method of conditioning that recovers the underlying self affine scaling in a finite length time series, and illustrate it using a Lévy flight

The fish fauna of the Iwokrama Forest

Fishes were collected from the rivers in and around the Iwokrama Forest during January-February and November-December 1997. Four hundred species of fish were recorded from forty families in ten orders. Many of these fishes are newly recorded from Guyana and several are thought to be endemic. The number of species recorded for the area is surprising given the low level of effort and suggests that this area may be particularly important from a fish diversity perspective. This paper focuses on species of particular interest from a management perspective including those considered economically important, rare or endangered. The paper is also the basis for developing fisheries management systems in the Iwokrama Forest and Rupununi Wetlands