Disease surveillance using a hidden Markov model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Routine surveillance of disease notification data can enable the early detection of localised disease outbreaks. Although hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been recognised as an appropriate method to model disease surveillance data, they have been rarely applied in public health practice. We aimed to develop and evaluate a simple flexible HMM for disease surveillance which is suitable for use with sparse small area count data and requires little baseline data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A Bayesian HMM was designed to monitor routinely collected notifiable disease data that are aggregated by residential postcode. Semi-synthetic data were used to evaluate the algorithm and compare outbreak detection performance with the established Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) algorithms and a negative binomial cusum.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Algorithm performance varied according to the desired false alarm rate for surveillance. At false alarm rates around 0.05, the cusum-based algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having similar sensitivity to the HMMs and a shorter average time to detection. At false alarm rates around 0.01, the HMM algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having higher sensitivity than the cusum-based Methods and a generally shorter time to detection for larger outbreaks. Overall, the 14-day HMM had a significantly greater area under the receiver operator characteristic curve than the EARS C3 and 7-day negative binomial cusum algorithms.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that the HMM provides an effective method for the surveillance of sparse small area notifiable disease data at low false alarm rates. Further investigations are required to evaluation algorithm performance across other diseases and surveillance contexts.</p

Reliability of two goniometric methods of measuring active inversion and eversion range of motion at the ankle

BACKGROUND: Active inversion and eversion ankle range of motion (ROM) is widely used to evaluate treatment effect, however the error associated with the available measurement protocols is unknown. This study aimed to establish the reliability of goniometry as used in clinical practice. METHODS: 30 subjects (60 ankles) with a wide variety of ankle conditions participated in this study. Three observers, with different skill levels, measured active inversion and eversion ankle ROM three times on each of two days. Measurements were performed with subjects positioned (a) sitting and (b) prone. Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC([2,1])) were calculated to determine intra- and inter-observer reliability. RESULTS: Within session intra-observer reliability ranged from ICC([2,1] )0.82 to 0.96 and between session intra-observer reliability ranged from ICC([2,1] )0.42 to 0.80. Reliability was similar for the sitting and the prone positions, however, between sessions, inversion measurements were more reliable than eversion measurements. Within session inter-observer measurements in sitting were more reliable than in prone and inversion measurements were more reliable than eversion measurements. CONCLUSION: Our findings show that ankle inversion and eversion ROM can be measured with high to very high reliability by the same observer within sessions and with low to moderate reliability by different observers within a session. The reliability of measures made by the same observer between sessions varies depending on the direction, being low to moderate for eversion measurements and moderate to high for inversion measurements in both positions

The Terebridae and teretoxins: Combining phylogeny and anatomy for concerted discovery of bioactive compounds

The Conoidea superfamily, comprised of cone snails, terebrids, and turrids, is an exceptionally promising group for the discovery of natural peptide toxins. The potential of conoidean toxins has been realized with the distribution of the first Conus (cone snail) drug, Prialt (ziconotide), an analgesic used to alleviate chronic pain in HIV and cancer patients. Cone snail toxins (conotoxins) are highly variable, a consequence of a high mutation rate associated to duplication events and positive selection. As Conus and terebrids diverged in the early Paleocene, the toxins from terebrids (teretoxins) may demonstrate highly divergent and unique functionalities. Recent analyses of the Terebridae, a largely distributed family with more than 300 described species, indicate they have evolutionary and pharmacological potential. Based on a three gene (COI, 12S and 16S) molecular phylogeny, including ~50 species from the West-Pacific, five main terebrid lineages were discriminated: two of these lineages independently lost their venom apparatus, and one venomous lineage was previously unknown. Knowing the phylogenetic relationships within the Terebridae aids in effectively targeting divergent lineages with novel peptide toxins. Preliminary results indicate that teretoxins are similar in structure and composition to conotoxins, suggesting teretoxins are an attractive line of research to discover and develop new therapeutics that target ion channels and receptors. Using conotoxins as a guideline, and innovative natural products discovery strategies, such as the Concerted Discovery Strategy, the potential of the Terebridae and their toxins are explored as a pioneering pharmacological resource

The counselling self-estimate inventory (COSE): Does it work in Chinese counsellors?

Counselling self-efficacy is an important construct for research and evaluation in counsellors' competencies and training effectiveness. Larson et al. developed the Counselling Self-Estimate Inventory (COSE) for counsellors in America and examined its factor structure using exploratory factor analysis. They recommended a five-factor model (microskills, counselling process, difficult client behaviour, cultural competence, and awareness of values) and the use of the COSE for future research. However, little research has investigated the validity of the COSE in the context of counselling Chinese students in schools. In the present study, the factor structure of responses to the Chinese version of the Counselling Self-Estimate Inventory in a sample of 578 Hong Kong secondary school guidance teachers was examined using the EQS approach to confirmatory factor analysis. The results showed that while a five-factor model was fairly able to fit the data, the deletion of items related to the awareness of values factor yielded a better fitting model. The discussion of potential uses and limitations of the C-COSE in the context of preparing and supervising school guidance personnel in student counselling is relevant to counselling psychologists and researchers in Hong Kong and other parts of the world.postprin

MAESTROS: multi-agent simulation of rework in Open Source software

Rework Management in software development is a challenging and complexissue. Defined as the effort spent to re-do some work, rework implies big costsgiven the fact that the time spent on rework does not count to the improvement of theproject. Predicting and controlling rework causes is a valuable asset for companies,which maintain closed policies on choosing team members and assigning activitiesto developers. However, a trending growth in development consists in Open SourceSoftware (OSS) projects. This is a totally new and diverse environment, in the sensethat not only the projects but also their resources, e.g., developers change dynamically.There is no guarantee that developers will follow the same methodologiesand quality policies as in a traditional and closed project. In such world, identifyingrework causes is a necessary step to reduce project costs and to help projectmanagers to better define their strategies. We observed that in real OSS projectsthere are no fixed team, but instead, developers assume some kind of auction inwhich the activities are assigned to the most interested and less-cost developer. Thislead us to think that a more complex auctioning mechanism should not only modelthe task allocation problem, but also consider some other factors related to reworkcauses. By doing this, we could optimise the task allocation, improving the developmentof the project and reducing rework. In this paper we presented MAESTROS,a Multi-Agent System that implements an auction mechanism for simulating taskallocation in OSS. Experiments were conducted to measure costs and rework withdifferent project characteristics. We analysed the impact of introducing a Q-learningreinforcement algorithm on reducing costs and rework. Our findings correspond to a reduction of 31 % in costs and 11 % in rework when compared with the simpleapproach. Improvements to MAESTROS include real projects data analysis and areal-time mechanism to support Project Management decisions

Cross-Cultural Validation of the Inventory of School Motivation (ISM) in the Asian Setting: Hong Kong and the Philippines

Students’ achievement goals in school have received increasing research attention because they have been shown to be important in predicting important outcomes. As such, there has been a growing interest in measuring and comparing them across different cultural groups. However, these comparisons cannot be made until validity evidence has been attained to support the use of an instrument in the new cultural setting. In this study, we investigated the cross-cultural applicability of the Inventory of School Motivation (ISM, McInerney et al. American Educational Research Journal 34:207-236, 1997) in the Hong Kong Chinese and Philippine contexts using both within-network and between-network approaches to construct validation. The ISM measures four types of achievement goals: mastery, performance, social, and extrinsic goals. 1,406 high school students from Hong Kong (n = 697) and the Philippines (n = 709) participated. Results of the within-network test showed that the ISM had good internal consistency reliability and the confirmatory factor analysis provided support for the hypothesized four-factor model. Multigroup confirmatory factor analyses supported invariance of factor loadings across the two samples. The between-network test also indicated that these achievement goals correlated systematically with different aspects of students’ self-concepts. These findings support the applicability of the ISM among Hong Kong Chinese and Filipino students

The Effect of a Brief Mindfulness Intervention on Memory for Positively and Negatively Valenced Stimuli

A core component of mindfulness is non-judgmental observation of internal and external stimuli. The present study investigated the effect of mindfulness on memory for emotional stimuli. Participants were exposed to a brief mindfulness intervention and subsequently performed a verbal learning test consisting of positive, neutral, and negative words. Control participants received no intervention and directly performed the verbal learning test. After 20 min, participants recalled as many words as possible. Participants in the mindfulness condition remembered a significantly lower proportion of negative words compared to control participants. No differences between both groups were observed for the proportion of remembered positive words. These findings suggest that memory processes may be a potential mechanism underlying the link between mindfulness and subjective well-being

Do advertisements for antihypertensive drugs in Australia promote quality prescribing? A cross-sectional study

Background Antihypertensive medications are widely prescribed by doctors and heavily promoted by the pharmaceutical industry. Despite strong evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of thiazide diuretics, trends in both promotion and prescription of antihypertensive drugs favour newer, less cost-effective agents. Observational evidence shows correlations between exposure to pharmaceutical promotion and less ideal prescribing. Our study therefore aimed to determine whether print advertisements for antihypertensive medications promote quality prescribing in hypertension. Methods We performed a cross-sectional study of 113 advertisements for antihypertensive drugs from 4 general practice-oriented Australian medical publications in 2004. Advertisements were evaluated using a quality checklist based on a review of hypertension management guidelines. Main outcome measures included: frequency with which antihypertensive classes were advertised, promotion of thiazide class drugs as first line agents, use of statistical claims in advertisements, mention of harms and prices in the advertisements, promotion of assessment and treatment of cardiovascular risk, promotion of lifestyle modification, and targeting of particular patient subgroups. Results Thiazides were the most frequently advertised drug class (48.7% of advertisements), but were largely promoted in combination preparations. The only thiazide advertised as a single agent was the most expensive, indapamide. No advertisement specifically promoted any thiazide as a better first-line drug. Statistics in the advertisements tended to be expressed in relative rather than absolute terms. Drug costs were often reported, but without cost comparisons between drugs. Adverse effects were usually reported but largely confined to the advertisements' small print. Other than mentioning drug interactions with alcohol and salt, no advertisements promoted lifestyle modification. Few advertisements (2.7%) promoted the assessment of cardiovascular risk. Conclusion Print advertisements for antihypertensive medications in Australia provide some, but not all, of the key messages required for guideline-concordant care. These results have implications for the regulation of drug advertising and the continuing education of doctors.Brett D Montgomery, Peter R Mansfield, Geoffrey K Spurling and Alison M War

Genotype at the P554L Variant of the Hexose-6 Phosphate Dehydrogenase Gene Is Associated with Carotid Intima-Medial Thickness

Objective: The combined thickness of the intima and media of the carotid artery (carotid intima-medial thickness, CIMT) is associated with cardiovascular disease and stroke. Previous studies indicate that carotid intima-medial thickness is a significantly heritable phenotype, but the responsible genes are largely unknown. Hexose-6 phosphate dehydrogenase (H6PDH) is a microsomal enzyme whose activity regulates corticosteroid metabolism in the liver and adipose tissue; variability in measures of corticosteroid metabolism within the normal range have been associated with risk factors for cardiovascular disease. We performed a genetic association study in 854 members of 224 families to assess the relationship between polymorphisms in the gene coding for hexose-6 phosphate dehydrogenase (H6PD) and carotid intima-medial thickness. Methods: Families were ascertained via a hypertensive proband. CIMT was measured using B-mode ultrasound. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) tagging common variation in the H6PD gene were genotyped. Association was assessed following adjustment for significant covariates including "classical" cardiovascular risk factors. Functional studies to determine the effect of particular SNPs on H6PDH were performed. Results: There was evidence of association between the single nucleotide polymorphism rs17368528 in exon five of the H6PD gene, which encodes an amino-acid change from proline to leucine in the H6PDH protein, and mean carotid intima-medial thickness (p = 0.00065). Genotype was associated with a 5% (or 0.04 mm) higher mean carotid intima-medial thickness measurement per allele, and determined 2% of the population variability in the phenotype. Conclusions: Our results suggest a novel role for the H6PD gene in atherosclerosis susceptibility