A Deep Spatio-Temporal Fuzzy Neural Network for Passenger Demand Prediction

In spite of its importance, passenger demand prediction is a highly challenging problem, because the demand is simultaneously influenced by the complex interactions among many spatial and temporal factors and other external factors such as weather. To address this problem, we propose a Spatio-TEmporal Fuzzy neural Network (STEF-Net) to accurately predict passenger demands incorporating the complex interactions of all known important factors. We design an end-to-end learning framework with different neural networks modeling different factors. Specifically, we propose to capture spatio-temporal feature interactions via a convolutional long short-term memory network and model external factors via a fuzzy neural network that handles data uncertainty significantly better than deterministic methods. To keep the temporal relations when fusing two networks and emphasize discriminative spatio-temporal feature interactions, we employ a novel feature fusion method with a convolution operation and an attention layer. As far as we know, our work is the first to fuse a deep recurrent neural network and a fuzzy neural network to model complex spatial-temporal feature interactions with additional uncertain input features for predictive learning. Experiments on a large-scale real-world dataset show that our model achieves more than 10% improvement over the state-of-the-art approaches.Comment: https://epubs.siam.org/doi/abs/10.1137/1.9781611975673.1

Cloud Radiative Effects on MJO Development in DYNAMO

Observed Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) events are examined with the aid of regional model simulations to understand the role of cloud radiative effects in the MJO development. The importance of this role is demonstrated by the absence of the MJO in the model simulations that contain no cloud radiative effects. Comparisons of model simulations with and without the cloud radiative effects and observation help identify the major processes arising from those effects. Those processes develop essentially from heating in the upper troposphere due to shortwave absorption within anvil clouds in the upper troposphere and the convergence of longwave radiation in the middle to upper troposphere, with a peak at 300 hPa, during deep convection. First, that heating adds extra buoyancy and accelerates the rising motion in the upper troposphere in deep convection. The vertical acceleration in the upper troposphere creates a vacuum effect and demands for more deep convection to develop. Second, in response to that demand and required by mass balance arises the large-scale horizontal and vertical mass, moisture, and energy convergence. It strengthens deep convection and, with the feedback from continuing cloud radiative effect, creates conditions that can perpetuate deep convection and MJO development. That perpetuation does not occur however because those processes arising from the cloud radiative heating in the upper troposphere stabilize the troposphere until it supports no further deep convection. Weakening deep convection reduces cloud radiative effects. The subsequent reduction of the vacuum effect in the upper troposphere diminishes deep convection completing an MJO cycle. These results advance our understanding of the development of the MJO in the radiative–convective system over warm waters in the tropics. They show that while the embryo of intraseasonal oscillation may exist in the system its growth/development is largely dependent on cloud radiative effects and feedbacks

Alignment-based conformance checking if hierarchical process models

Process mining has received much attention in the field of business pro cess management. Event logs that are generated from information systems can be correlated with the process models for conformance checking. The process models describe event activities at an abstraction level. However, hierarchical business pro cesses, as a kind of typical complex process scenario, describe sub-processes invoca tion and multi-instantiation patterns. As existing conformance checking approaches cannot identify sub-processes within hierarchical process models. They cannot be used for conformance checking of hierarchical process models. To handle this limi tation, a definition of hierarchically alignment sequences is presented in this paper. Meanwhile, a novel conformance checking approach for hierarchical process models and event logs is proposed. The proposed method has been implemented within the ProM toolkit, which is an open-source process mining software. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, both artificial and real-world event logs are utilized in a comparative analysis against existing state-of-the-art approaches

Existence of solutions to a perturbed critical biharmonic equation with Hardy potential

\ In this paper, the following biharmonic elliptic problem \begin{eqnarray*} \begin{cases} \Delta^2u-\lambda\frac{|u|^{q-2}u}{|x|^s}=|u|^{2^{**}-2}u+ f(x,u), &x\in\Omega,\\ u=\dfrac{\partial u}{\partial n}=0, &x\in\partial\Omega \end{cases} \end{eqnarray*} is considered. The main feature of the equation is that it involves a Hardy term and a nonlinearity with critical Sobolev exponent. By combining a careful analysis of the fibering maps of the energy functional associated with the problem with the Mountain Pass Lemma, it is shown, for some positive parameter $\lambda$ depending on $s$ and $q$, that the problem admits at least one mountain pass type solution under appropriate growth conditions on the nonlinearity $f(x,u)$.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2211.1065