Differential taxation and the equilibrium structure of interest rates

Equilibrium coupon bond pricing relationships given differential taxation are derived under uncertainty assuming that both corporate and municipal bonds were originally issued at par but are currently selling at a discount. The impact of differential taxation upon the term structure and coupon structure of interest rates is investigated, while the tax structure of interest rates is uniquely characterized. Differential taxation substantially alters the prevailing equilibrium structure of interest rates.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/25591/1/0000135.pd

Using Cash Flow Dynamics to Price Thinly Traded Assets

Are cash flows informative and predictive in valuing thinly traded assets? We investigate the extent to which cash-flow and discount-factor information plays a role in pricing thinly traded assets. We focus on pricing the various traded tranches in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) by developing an adaptation of the Campbell-Shiller dynamic Gordon growth model, which we term a Self-Propagating Rolling-Window VAR. We apply this to cash flows and actual bond prices. In contrast to stocks, we find that cash flows are informative in valuing thinly traded assets. Our predicted cash flow yields closely resemble ex-post realized transaction yields, and these predicted yields even outperform yields based on matrix prices especially for subordinated tranches. We also find that discount-factor information, while important is not as informative as cash flows in this setting, except after the financial crisis where the impact of discount-factor information increases somewhat. Our results provide a good representation of CMBS yields; investors can readily apply this algorithm to infer values of other types of thinly traded assets where cash flows are observable

Using Cash Flow Dynamics to Price Thinly Traded Assets: The Case of Commercial Real Estate

Previous studies of share repurchase have primarily focused on examining announcement effects and long-term operating performance in order to distinguish among the diverse possible hypotheses for repurchase. One of the most important rationales they have studied is the over-investment hypothesis: firms repurchase in order to avoid investing in negative net present value projects. While the recent empirical analyses have presented some indirect evidence in support of the over-investment hypothesis, this study examines this rationale for repurchase from a unique perspective, empirically showing that project returns have an important influence on the decision to repurchase shares. Our sample of firms consists of 125 real estate investment trusts (REITs) in order to utilize a time series of real estate capitalization rates (property ROAs) from market transactions on different property types. These cap rates proxy for a REIT’s project opportunity set. Using a both Logit and Tobit models that corrects for other possible buyback rationales, we show that during periods with relatively low cap rates, REITs are more likely to both repurchase shares and repurchase larger amounts of shares than when cap rates are high

Expected returns and expected erowth in rents of commercial real estate

Commercial real estate expected returns and expected rent growth rates are time-varying. Relying on transactions data from a cross-section of U.S. metropolitan areas, we find that up to 30% of the variability of realized returns to commercial real estate can be accounted for by expected return variability, while expected rent growth rate variability explains up to 45% of the variability of realized rent growth rates. The cap rate - that is, the rent-price ratio in commercial real estate - captures fluctuations in expected returns for apartments, retail properties, as well as industrial properties. For offices, by contrast, cap rates do not forecast (in-sample) returns even though expected returns on o±ces are also time-varying. As implied by the present value relation, cap rates marginally forecast o±ce rent growth but not rent growth of apartments, retail properties, and industrial properties. We link these differences in in-sample predictability to differences in the stochastic properties of the underlying commercial real estate data- generating processes. Also, rent growth predictability is observed mostly in locations characterized by higher population density and stringent land use restrictions. The opposite is true for return predictability. The dynamic portfolio implications of time-varying commercial real estate returns are also explored in the context of a portfolio manager investing in the aggregate stock market, Treasury bills, as well as commercial real estate

On inferring standard deviations from path dependent options

Path dependent option prices are employed to derive implied standard deviations of the underlying security price process without recourse to numerical procedures. We empirically illustrate our methodology by inferring the volatility of gold prices.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/25893/1/0000456.pd

An empirical investigation of the EOE gold options market

On April 2, 1981, the European Option Exchange introduced the first organized exchange trading of options on spot gold. We study this new market for three months at its inception and in a parallel period a year later via various tests of rational boundary conditions. Additionally, we use call-put parity to infer implied risk free rates (IRFR's). Deviations of the IRFR's from the prevailing risk free rate permit the possibility of arbitrage through positions known as forward and reverse conversions. Our tests are modified to allow for transaction costs to more fully address the question of market efficiency.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/25742/1/0000302.pd

Term Structure Forecasts of Long-Term Consumption Growth

Relying on a simple general equilibrium model of the term structure, both nominal yields and real consumption growth rates can be shown to be affine in the unobservable state variables. We can then express real consumption growth rates in terms of nominal yields rather than the unobservable state variables with the coefficients of the resultant forecasting relation being endogenously determined by the term structure model. Using term structure data over the 1985 to 2000 sample period, the empirical evidence is consistent with our model more accurately predicting real consumption growth rates than a regression model based on the term spread

The cross-sectional dispersion of commercial real estate returns and rent growth: time variation and economic fluctuations

We estimate the cross-sectional dispersions of returns and growth in rents for commercial real estate using data on U.S. metropolitan areas over the sample period 1986 to 2002. The cross- sectional dispersion of returns is a measure of the risk faced by commercial real estate investors. We document that, for apartments, offices, industrial and retail properties, the cross-sectional dispersions are time varying. Interestingly, their time-series fluctuations can be explained by macroeconomic variables such as the term and credit spreads, inflation and the short rate of interest. The cross-sectional dispersions also exhibit an asymmetrically larger response to negative economics shocks, which may be attributable to credit channel effects impacting the availability of external debt financing to commercial real estate investments. Finally, we find a statistically reliable positive relation between commercial real estate returns and their cross-sectional dispersion, suggesting that idiosyncratic fluctuations are priced in the commercial real estate market