Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions—that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves. The difference between imperfect models and reality is termed model discrepancy, and we are often uncertain as to the size and consequences of this discrepancy. Here, we provide two examples of the consequences of discrepancy when calibrating models at the ion channel and action potential scales. Furthermore, we attempt to account for this discrepancy when calibrating and validating an ion channel model using different methods, based on modelling the discrepancy using Gaussian processes and autoregressive-moving-average models, then highlight the advantages and shortcomings of each approach. Finally, suggestions and lines of enquiry for future work are provided. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation’

NATO/CCMS Pilot study workshop on air pollution trarfsport and diffusion over coastal urban areas

The NATO/CCMS Pilot Study "Air pollution transport and diffusion over coastal urban areas" held an international workshop in Athens, 3-5 May 1993. The objective of this workshop was to develop guidelines for it reference experiment in a coastal urban area. It was intended that the guidelines would be sufficiently general that they could be applied to any coastal urban area, but Athens was bome in mind as a suitable candidate location. On the first day of the workshop, invited speakers delivered their lectures on different issues of dispersion in urban coastal areas. The second day was devoted to discussions in working groups focusing on key issues, such as, emissions' inventory, meteorological measurements, surface pollutant concentration measurements, aircraft measurements, remote sensing and model evaluation. On the final half-day the rapporteur from each working group reported on its work. Their reports are briefly summarized in the present paper. © 1995

An Oral History of the Ethics of Institutional Closure

This paper examines the ethical dimensions of the closure process of an English large long-stay institution for people with learning difficulties during the last quarter of the twentieth century. It does this primarily through an analysis of oral historical interview data stemming from those managers who implemented rundown. The paper illustrates the ways in which their testimonies indicate the presence of a morally infused dominant rhetoric, which was based upon the therapeutic benefits of closure, informed by the ideas of normalisation and social role valorisation. However, the paper argues that this principled managerial perspective had unfortunate ethical consequences, in that it under-acknowledged, marginalised and discredited staff viewpoints which raised pertinent issues relating to the downsizing of this particular hospital

Before the Next Storm Some Evidence-Based Reminders About Temporary Release

This article offers a long overdue comprehensive review of the literature on the effectiveness of temporary release programs for prisoners. Following an account of how the public and criminal justice workers view temporary release, and against the “nothing works” proposition, it is shown that while in the community, prisoners tend to spend their time constructively and comply with the rules and regulations of temporary release; both home leave and work release schemes can be effective in reducing recidivism rates, and work release in particular may also enhance postrelease employment prospects