Diagnosing observation error correlations for Doppler radar radial winds in the Met Office UKV model using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics

With the development of convection-permitting numerical weather prediction the efficient use of high-resolution observations in data assimilation is becoming increasingly important. The operational assimilation of these observations, such as Doppler radar radial winds (DRWs), is now common, though to avoid violating the assumption of uncorrelated observation errors the observation density is severely reduced. To improve the quantity of observations used and the impact that they have on the forecast requires the introduction of the full, potentially correlated, error statistics. In this work, observation error statistics are calculated for the DRWs that are assimilated into the Met Office high-resolution UK model using a diagnostic that makes use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals. This is the first in-depth study using the diagnostic to estimate both horizontal and along-beam observation error statistics. The new results obtained show that the DRW error standard deviations are similar to those used operationally and increase as the observation height increases. Surprisingly the estimated observation error correlation length-scales are longer than the operational thinning distance. They are dependent both on the height of the observation and on the distance of the observation away from the radar. Further tests show that the long correlations cannot be attributed to the background error covariance matrix used in the assimilation, although they are, in part, a result of using superobservations and a simplified observation operator. The inclusion of correlated error statistics in the assimilation allows less thinning of the data and hence better use of the high-resolution observations

Public awareness of cancer in Britain: a population-based survey of adults

*_Objective:_* To assess public awareness of cancer warning signs, anticipated delay, and perceived barriers to seeking medical advice in the British population. 
Methods: We carried out a population-based survey using face-to-face, computer-assisted interviews to administer the Cancer Awareness Measure (CAM), a newly-developed, validated measure of cancer awareness. The sample included 2216 adults (970 male and 1246 female) recruited as part of the Office for National Statistics Opinions Survey using stratified probability sampling.

*_Results:_* Awareness of cancer warning signs was low when open-ended (recall) questions were used and higher with closed (recognition) questions; but on either measure, awareness was lower in those who were male, younger, and from lower socioeconomic status (SES) groups or ethnic minorities. The most commonly endorsed barriers to help-seeking were difficulty making an appointment, worry about wasting the doctor’s time and worry about what would be found. Emotional barriers were more prominent in lower SES groups and practical barriers (e.g. too busy) more prominent in higher SES groups. Anticipated delay was lower in ethnic minority and lower SES groups. In multivariate analysis, higher symptom awareness was associated with lower anticipated delay, and more barriers with greater anticipated delay.

*_Conclusions:_* A combination of public education about symptoms and empowerment to seek medical advice, as well as support at primary care level, could enhance early presentation and improve cancer outcomes

EquiFACS: the Equine Facial Action Coding System

Although previous studies of horses have investigated their facial expressions in specific contexts, e.g. pain, until now there has been no methodology available that documents all the possible facial movements of the horse and provides a way to record all potential facial configurations. This is essential for an objective description of horse facial expressions across a range of contexts that reflect different emotional states. Facial Action Coding Systems (FACS) provide a systematic methodology of identifying and coding facial expressions on the basis of underlying facial musculature and muscle movement. FACS are anatomically based and document all possible facial movements rather than a configuration of movements associated with a particular situation. Consequently, FACS can be applied as a tool for a wide range of research questions. We developed FACS for the domestic horse (Equus caballus) through anatomical investigation of the underlying musculature and subsequent analysis of naturally occurring behaviour captured on high quality video. Discrete facial movements were identified and described in terms of the underlying muscle contractions, in correspondence with previous FACS systems. The reliability of others to be able to learn this system (EquiFACS) and consistently code behavioural sequences was high—and this included people with no previous experience of horses. A wide range of facial movements were identified, including many that are also seen in primates and other domestic animals (dogs and cats). EquiFACS provides a method that can now be used to document the facial movements associated with different social contexts and thus to address questions relevant to understanding social cognition and comparative psychology, as well as informing current veterinary and animal welfare practices

Renovation of Seeded Warm-season Pastures with Atrazine

Numerous warm-season pastures have been established in the last 30 years in the central Great Plains. Some of these pastures are old enough to verify that they can be abused by overgrazing as easily as native tallgrass prairies. Overgrazed warm-season pastures are invaded and dominated by cool-season grasses such as smooth brome (Bromus inermis Leyss.) and Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis L.), which diminishes the pasture productivity during the hot summer months. Since established warm-season grasses have greater tolerance to the herbicide atrazine than cool-season grasses, the effectiveness of atrazine applications in renovating invaded warm-season pastures was evaluated. A single, early spring application of atrazine (3.3 kg/ha) killed or sufficiently suppressed the cool-season grasses so that surviving warm-season remnants were able to effectively re-establish the warm-season pasture in a single growing season without any loss in total pasture forage production. Lower rates of atrazine were not as effective, particularly if smooth brome was the primary cool-season grass. The single atrazine application cost was approximately 25% of the seed cost associated with more conventional renovation. Pastures should not be grazed the treatment year but can be hayed rt the end of the growing season. The success of the practice is dependent on the presence of warm-season grass remnants. Spraying test strips in small fenced areas would be advisable before treating entire pastures

New way to achieve chaotic synchronization in spatially extended systems

We study the spatio-temporal behavior of simple coupled map lattices with periodic boundary conditions. The local dynamics is governed by two maps, namely, the sine circle map and the logistic map respectively. It is found that even though the spatial behavior is irregular for the regularly coupled (nearest neighbor coupling) system, the spatially synchronized (chaotic synchronization) as well as periodic solution may be obtained by the introduction of three long range couplings at the cost of three nearest neighbor couplings.Comment: 5 pages (revtex), 7 figures (eps, included

Seeding Techniques for Alfalfa to Improve Subirrigated Meadows

Improving quality and quantity of forage harvested from poor condition, subirrigated hay meadows in the Nebraska Sand Hills is critical to the winter forage reserve of livestock producers. Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) is the most commonly used legume for meadow improvement. Broadcast seeding (11.2 kg/ha) was compared to sod seeding (11.2 kg/ha) as a method to introduce alfalfa into an alkaline subirrigated meadow (Fluvaquentic Haplustolls). Before seeding, the study area received 78.5 kg/ha phosphorous. Paraquat (0.29 kg/ha) was applied to one-half of the area to suppress plant competition and provide qualitative information on treatment consistency across a range of sod competition. Lo-till sod seeding was accomplished with a power tillage seeder. Seedling density was determined in spring the following year. Broadcast alfalfa had a greater seedling density than sod-seeded alfalfa (38.4 and 19.1 plants/m2, respectively, p=.09). Apparently, paraquat had no effect on seedling establishment and tended to reduce total yield. Yields the year of seeding, using a two harvest scheme, were greater for broadcast compared to sod-seeded alfalfa (p=.02). However, there was no significant difference between yields of broadcast alfalfa and control

Implementation science in adolescent healthcare research: an integrative review.

BACKGROUND: Multiple theories, models and frameworks have been developed to assist implementation of evidence-based practice. However, to date there has been no review of implementation literature specific to adolescent healthcare. This integrative review therefore aimed to determine what implementation science theories, models and frameworks have been applied, what elements of these frameworks have been identified as influential in promoting the implementation and sustainability of service intervention, and to what extent, in what capacity and at what time points has the contribution of adolescent consumer perspectives on evidence implementation been considered.  METHODS: An integrative design was used and reported based on a modified form of the PRISMA (2020) checklist. Seven databases were searched for English language primary research which included any implementation science theory, model or framework developed for/with adolescents or applied in relation to adolescent healthcare services within the past 10 years. Content and thematic analysis were applied with the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) used to frame analysis of the barriers and facilitators to effective implementation of evidence-informed interventions within youth health settings. RESULTS: From 8717 citations, 13 papers reporting 12 studies were retained. Nine different implementation science theories, frameworks or approaches were applied; six of 12 studies used the CFIR, solely or with other models. All CFIR domains were represented as facilitators and barriers for implementation in included studies. However, there was little or no inclusion of adolescents in the development or review of these initiatives. Only three mentioned youth input, occurring in the pre-implementation or implementation stages. CONCLUSIONS: The few studies found for this review highlight the internationally under-developed nature of this topic. Flagging the importance of the unique characteristics of this particular age group, and of the interventions and strategies to target it, the minimal input of adolescent consumers is cause for concern. Further research is clearly needed and must ensure that youth consumers are engaged from the start and consistently throughout; that their voice is prioritised and not tokenistic; that their contribution is taken seriously. Only then will age-appropriate evidence implementation enable innovations in youth health services to achieve the evidence-based outcomes they offer. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO 2020 CRD42020201142 https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=201142

Technical note: assessment of observation quality for data assimilation in flood models

The assimilation of satellite-based water level observations (WLOs) into 2D hydrodynamic models can keep flood forecasts on track or be used for reanalysis to obtain improved assessments of previous flood footprints. In either case, satellites provide spatially dense observation fields, but with spatially correlated errors. To date, assimilation methods in flood forecasting either incorrectly neglect the spatial correlation in the observation errors or, in the best of cases, deal with it by thinning methods. These thinning methods result in a sparse set of observations whose error correlations are assumed to be negligible. Here, with a case study, we show that the assimilation diagnostics that make use of statistical averages of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals are useful to estimate error correlations in WLOs. The average estimated correlation length scale of 7km is longer than the expected value of 250m. Furthermore, the correlations do not decrease monotonically; this unexpected behaviour is shown to be the result of assimilating some anomalous observations. Accurate estimates of the observation error statistics can be used to support quality control protocols and provide insight into which observations it is most beneficial to assimilate. Therefore, the understanding gained in this paper will contribute towards the correct assimilation of denser datasets

Childhood abuse and eating psychopathology: the mediating role of core beliefs

This study aimed to investigate the mediating role of early maladaptive schemas (core beliefs) in the relationship between childhood abuse and eating psychopathology. Three self-report questionnaires assessing experiences of childhood abuse, eating psychopathology, and levels of maladaptive schemas were administered to 118 female university students. Emotional abuse predicted drive for thinness, whereas sexual abuse predicted symptoms of bulimia nervosa (BN). Mistrust and abuse beliefs were found to fully mediate relationships between childhood abuse and drive for thinness and bulimia scales. Abandonment beliefs were also shown to be partial mediators of the relationship between sexual abuse and symptoms of BN. In a sample of nonclinical women, beliefs pertaining to abandonment and mistrust or abuse appeared to be important in the explanation of the relationship between recollections of childhood abuse and adult eating disorder symptoms