Using electronic health records to predict costs and outcomes in stable coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES: To use electronic health records (EHR) to predict lifetime costs and health outcomes of patients with stable coronary artery disease (stable-CAD) stratified by their risk of future cardiovascular events, and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatments targeted at these populations. METHODS: The analysis was based on 94 966 patients with stable-CAD in England between 2001 and 2010, identified in four prospectively collected, linked EHR sources. Markov modelling was used to estimate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) stratified by baseline cardiovascular risk. RESULTS: For the lowest risk tenth of patients with stable-CAD, predicted discounted remaining lifetime healthcare costs and QALYs were £62 210 (95% CI £33 724 to £90 043) and 12.0 (95% CI 11.5 to 12.5) years, respectively. For the highest risk tenth of the population, the equivalent costs and QALYs were £35 549 (95% CI £31 679 to £39 615) and 2.9 (95% CI 2.6 to 3.1) years, respectively. A new treatment with a hazard reduction of 20% for myocardial infarction, stroke and cardiovascular disease death and no side-effects would be cost-effective if priced below £72 per year for the lowest risk patients and £646 per year for the highest risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: Existing EHRs may be used to estimate lifetime healthcare costs and outcomes of patients with stable-CAD. The stable-CAD model developed in this study lends itself to informing decisions about commissioning, pricing and reimbursement. At current prices, to be cost-effective some established as well as future stable-CAD treatments may require stratification by patient risk

Long-term healthcare use and costs in patients with stable coronary artery disease: a population-based cohort using linked health records (CALIBER)

AIMS: To examine long-term healthcare utilization and costs of patients with stable coronary artery disease (SCAD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Linked cohort study of 94 966 patients with SCAD in England, 1 January 2001 to 31 March 2010, identified from primary care, secondary care, disease, and death registries. Resource use and costs, and cost predictors by time and 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profile were estimated using generalized linear models. Coronary heart disease hospitalizations were 20.5% in the first year and 66% in the year following a non-fatal (myocardial infarction, ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke) event. Mean healthcare costs were £3133 per patient in the first year and £10 377 in the year following a non-fatal event. First-year predictors of cost included sex (mean cost £549 lower in females), SCAD diagnosis (non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction cost £656 more than stable angina), and co-morbidities (heart failure cost £657 more per patient). Compared with lower risk patients (5-year CVD risk 3.5%), those of higher risk (5-year CVD risk 44.2%) had higher 5-year costs (£23 393 vs. £9335) and lower lifetime costs (£43 020 vs. £116 888). CONCLUSION: Patients with SCAD incur substantial healthcare utilization and costs, which varies and may be predicted by 5-year CVD risk profile. Higher risk patients have higher initial but lower lifetime costs than lower risk patients as a result of shorter life expectancy. Improved cardiovascular survivorship among an ageing CVD population is likely to require stratified care in anticipation of the burgeoning demand

Ambulatory heart rate range predicts mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation in chronic heart failure

Objective: We aimed to define the prognostic value of the heart rate range during a 24 h period in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: Prospective observational cohort study of 791 patients with CHF associated with left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation were linked with ambulatory heart rate range (AHRR; calculated as maximum minus minimum heart rate using 24 h Holter monitor data, including paced and non-sinus complexes) in univariate and multivariate analyses. Findings were then corroborated in a validation cohort of 408 patients with CHF with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Results: After a mean 4.1 years of follow-up, increasing AHRR was associated with reduced risk of all-cause, sudden, non-cardiovascular and progressive heart failure death in univariate analyses. After accounting for characteristics that differed between groups above and below median AHRR using multivariate analysis, AHRR remained strongly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.991/bpm increase in AHRR (95% CI 0.999 to 0.982); p=0.046). AHRR was not associated with the risk of any non-elective hospitalisation, but was associated with heart-failure-related hospitalisation. AHRR was modestly associated with the SD of normal-to-normal beats (R2=0.2; p<0.001) and with peak exercise-test heart rate (R2=0.33; p<0.001). Analysis of the validation cohort revealed AHRR to be associated with all-cause and mode-specific death as described in the derivation cohort. Conclusions: AHRR is a novel and readily available prognosticator in patients with CHF, which may reflect autonomic tone and exercise capacity

An efficient algorithm to calculate intrinsic thermoelectric parameters based on Landauer approach

The Landauer approach provides a conceptually simple way to calculate the intrinsic thermoelectric (TE) parameters of materials from the ballistic to the diffusive transport regime. This method relies on the calculation of the number of propagating modes and the scattering rate for each mode. The modes are calculated from the energy dispersion (E(k)) of the materials which require heavy computation and often supply energy relation on sparse momentum (k) grids. Here an efficient method to calculate the distribution of modes (DOM) from a given E(k) relationship is presented. The main features of this algorithm are, (i) its ability to work on sparse dispersion data, and (ii) creation of an energy grid for the DOM that is almost independent of the dispersion data therefore allowing for efficient and fast calculation of TE parameters. The inclusion of scattering effects is also straight forward. The effect of k-grid sparsity on the compute time for DOM and on the sensitivity of the calculated TE results are provided. The algorithm calculates the TE parameters within 5% accuracy when the K-grid sparsity is increased up to 60% for all the dimensions (3D, 2D and 1D). The time taken for the DOM calculation is strongly influenced by the transverse K density (K perpendicular to transport direction) but is almost independent of the transport K density (along the transport direction). The DOM and TE results from the algorithm are bench-marked with, (i) analytical calculations for parabolic bands, and (ii) realistic electronic and phonon results for $Bi_{2}Te_{3}$.Comment: 16 Figures, 3 Tables, submitted to Journal of Computational electronic

Densification of the interlayer spacing governs the nanomechanical properties of calcium-silicate-hydrate

Calciuam-silicate-hydrate (C-S-H) is the principal binding phase in modern concrete. Molecular simulations imply that its nanoscale stiffness is 'defect-driven', i.e., dominated by crystallographic defects such as bridging site vacancies in its silicate chains. However, experimental validation of this result is difficult due to the hierarchically porous nature of C-S-H down to nanometers. Here, we integrate high pressure X-ray diffraction and atomistic simulations to correlate the anisotropic deformation of nanocrystalline C-S-H to its atomic-scale structure, which is changed by varying the Ca-to-Si molar ratio. Contrary to the 'defect-driven' hypothesis, we clearly observe stiffening of C-S-H with increasing Ca/Si in the range 0.8 ≤ Ca/Si ≤ 1.3, despite increasing numbers of vacancies in its silicate chains. The deformation of these chains along the b-axis occurs mainly through tilting of the Si-O-Si dihedral angle rather than shortening of the Si-O bond, and consequently there is no correlation between the incompressibilities of the a- and b-axes and the Ca/Si. On the contrary, the intrinsic stiffness of C-S-H solid is inversely correlated with the thickness of its interlayer space. This work provides direct experimental evidence to conduct more realistic modelling of C-S-H-based cementitious material

Inherited Variation in Vitamin D Genes Is Associated With Predisposition to Autoimmune Disease Type 1 Diabetes

Objective: Vitamin D deficiency (25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] <50 nmol/L) is commonly reported in both children and adults worldwide, and growing evidence indicates that vitamin D deficiency is associated with many extraskeletal chronic disorders, including the autoimmune diseases type 1 diabetes and multiple sclerosis. Research Design and Methods: We measured 25(OH)D concentrations in 720 case and 2,610 control plasma samples and genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms from seven vitamin D metabolism genes in 8,517 case, 10,438 control, and 1,933 family samples. We tested genetic variants influencing 25(OH)D metabolism for an association with both circulating 25(OH)D concentrations and disease status. Results: Type 1 diabetic patients have lower circulating levels of 25(OH)D than similarly aged subjects from the British population. Only 4.3 and 18.6% of type 1 diabetic patients reached optimal levels ($\geq$75 nmol/L) of 25(OH)D for bone health in the winter and summer, respectively. We replicated the associations of four vitamin D metabolism genes (GC, DHCR7, CYP2R1, and CYP24A1) with 25(OH)D in control subjects. In addition to the previously reported association between type 1 diabetes and CYP27B1 (P = 1.4 × 10$^{−4}$), we obtained consistent evidence of type 1 diabetes being associated with DHCR7 (P = 1.2 × 10$^{−3}$) and CYP2R1 (P = 3.0 × 10$^{−3}$). Conclusions: Circulating levels of 25(OH)D in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes vary seasonally and are under the same genetic control as in the general population but are much lower. Three key 25(OH)D metabolism genes show consistent evidence of association with type 1 diabetes risk, indicating a genetic etiological role for vitamin D deficiency in type 1 diabetes

Coexpression of EphB4 and ephrinB2 in tumour advancement of ovarian cancers

EphB4 and ephrinB2 expressions in ovarian cancers were studied to analyse EphB4/ephrinB2 functions against clinical backgrounds. EphB4 and ephrinB2 were dominantly localised in ovarian cancer cells of all cases studied. Both the histoscores and mRNA levels of EphB4 and ephrinB2 significantly increased with clinical stages (I<II<III<IV, P<0.001) in ovarian cancers, although there was no significant difference in EphB4 and ephrinB2 histoscores or in mRNA levels according to histopathological types. EphB4 as well as ephrinB2 histoscores in cancer cells correlated with the corresponding mRNA levels in each case (EphB4, P<0.001; ephrinB2, P<0.001). The 24-month survival rates of the 36 patients with high EphB4 and ephrinB2 expression were poor (25 and 27%, respectively), while for the other 36 patients with low EphB4 and ephrinB2 expression, they were significantly higher (68 and 64%, respectively). Therefore, EphB4/ephrinB2 may function in tumour advancement and coexpression of the Eph/ephrin system may potentiate tumour progression leading to poor survival. Thus, EphB4/ephrinB2 can be recognised as a novel prognostic indicator in the primary tumours of ovarian cancers

CCL3L1 copy number, CCR5 genotype and susceptibility to tuberculosis

Background: Tuberculosis is a major infectious disease and functional studies have provided evidence that both the chemokine MIP-1α and its receptor CCR5 play a role in susceptibility to TB. Thus by measuring copy number variation of CCL3L1, one of the genes that encode MIP-1α, and genotyping a functional promoter polymorphism -2459A > G in CCR5 (rs1799987) we investigate the influence of MIP-1α and CCR5, independently and combined, in susceptibility to clinically active TB in three populations, a Peruvian population (n = 1132), a !Xhosa population (n = 605) and a South African Coloured population (n = 221). The three populations include patients with clinically diagnosed pulmonary TB, as well as other, less prevalent forms of extrapulmonary TB. Methods and results: Copy number of CCL3L1 was measured using the paralogue ratio test and exhibited ranges between 0–6 copies per diploid genome (pdg) in Peru, between 0–12 pdg in !Xhosa samples and between 0–10 pdg in South African Coloured samples. The CCR5 promoter polymorphism was observed to differ significantly in allele frequency between populations (*A; Peru f = 0.67, !Xhosa f = 0.38, Coloured f = 0.48). Conclusions: The case–control association studies performed however find, surprisingly, no evidence for an influence of variation in genes coding for MIP-1α or CCR5 individually or together in susceptibility to clinically active TB in these populations

Chapter 11: Challenges in and Principles for Conducting Systematic Reviews of Genetic Tests used as Predictive Indicators

In this paper, we discuss common challenges in and principles for conducting systematic reviews of genetic tests. The types of genetic tests discussed are those used to 1). determine risk or susceptibility in asymptomatic individuals; 2). reveal prognostic information to guide clinical management in those with a condition; or 3). predict response to treatments or environmental factors. This paper is not intended to provide comprehensive guidance on evaluating all genetic tests. Rather, it focuses on issues that have been of particular concern to analysts and stakeholders and on areas that are of particular relevance for the evaluation of studies of genetic tests. The key points include:The general principles that apply in evaluating genetic tests are similar to those for other prognostic or predictive tests, but there are differences in how the principles need to be applied or the degree to which certain issues are relevant.A clear definition of the clinical scenario and an analytic framework is important when evaluating any test, including genetic tests.Organizing frameworks and analytic frameworks are useful constructs for approaching the evaluation of genetic tests.In constructing an analytic framework for evaluating a genetic test, analysts should consider preanalytic, analytic, and postanalytic factors; such factors are useful when assessing analytic validity.Predictive genetic tests are generally characterized by a delayed time between testing and clinically important events.Finding published information on the analytic validity of some genetic tests may be difficult. Web sites (FDA or diagnostic companies) and gray literature may be important sources.In situations where clinical factors associated with risk are well characterized, comparative effectiveness reviews should assess the added value of using genetic testing along with known factors compared with using the known factors alone.For genome-wide association studies, reviewers should determine whether the association has been validated in multiple studies to minimize both potential confounding and publication bias. In addition, reviewers should note whether appropriate adjustments for multiple comparisons were used