The Formation of Voting Behaviour Explained by Voting for Anti-European Parties

The Brexit referendum and the last presidential election in the USA are just two examples of recent vote results that have been wrongly predicted. This research paper aims to identify the formation of voting behaviour to revaluate the necessary factors and variables in the correct and scientific prediction and analysis of voting behaviour. More specifically, this paper chose anti-European voting behaviour in Germany, which is also a current European-wide societal phenomenon, to analyse and explain the formation of general voting behaviour in detail. Many researchers, including Goodwin and Heath (2016), analysed the quality of existing polling methodology to explain the incorrect prediction of the Brexit result. This research forms a new approach towards the identification of voting behaviour by including more variables than usual. In collaboration with YouGov Deutschland GmbH, a strategic sample of the German population of 993 participants was formed. Participants were asked questions relating to individual differences, political ideology, attitudes towards daily political topics and socio-demographic factors. Voters who voted for the AfD, the main anti-European party in Germany, were more likely to be in some form of relationship, were more likely to be male, and over-represented the age group 40–49. Finally, voters voted for the AfD because the party engaged with political topics in a way that no other party did. This research is somewhat limited because the questionnaire focused on voters voting for the AfD. Furthermore, quantitative research can only identify and analyse individual human behaviour to a certain extent, whereas qualitative data, which this research lacks, can potentially help to identify voting behaviour. Relevant and important factors such as political ideology and individual differences, which are included here, but are usually not part of political research, must play a role in the future identification of voting behaviour

Double -er suffixation in English: morphological, phonological and sociolinguistic reflections

In this article, I examine a relatively little discussed phenomenon which appears to be increasingly prevalent in contemporary English, namely the reduplication of the deverbal -er suffix on phrasal verbs to produce forms such as washer upper, looker outer and asker outer. I look at some of the morphological, diachronic and sociolinguistic questions which arise, before positing the hypothesis that this reduplication is not a purely morphological phenomenon, but in fact owes a great deal to phonological causes, and in particular euphonic considerations.Dans cet article, j’examine un phénomène morphologique de l’anglais contemporain qui semble ne pas avoir attiré l’attention de beaucoup de linguistes, mais qui semble néanmoins de plus en plus fréquent, à savoir la reduplication du suffixe déverbal -er sur les verbes à particule pour générer des formes telles que washer upper, looker outer and asker outer. Je passe en revue un certain nombre des questions morphologiques, diachroniques et sociolinguistiques posées par cette suffixation, avant d’émettre l’hypothèse que nous sommes en face ici non pas d’un procédé purement morphologique, mais d’un phénomène qui doit beaucoup à des considérations phonologiques, et en particulier euphoniques

Improving supplementary feeding in species conservation

Supplementary feeding is often a knee-jerk reaction to population declines, and its application is not critically evaluated, leading to polarized views among managers on its usefulness. Here, we advocate a more strategic approach to supplementary feeding so that the choice to use it is clearly justified over, or in combination with, other management actions and the predicted consequences are then critically assessed following implementation. We propose combining methods from a set of specialist disciplines that will allow critical evaluation of the need, benefit, and risks of food supplementation. Through the use of nutritional ecology, population ecology, and structured decision making, conservation managers can make better choices about what and how to feed by estimating consequences on population recovery across a range of possible actions. This structured approach also informs targeted monitoring and more clearly allows supplementary feeding to be integrated in recovery plans and reduces the risk of inefficient decisions. In New Zealand, managers of the endangered Hihi (Notiomystis cincta) often rely on supplementary feeding to support reintroduced populations. On Kapiti island the reintroduced Hihi population has responded well to food supplementation, but the logistics of providing an increasing demand recently outstretched management capacity. To decide whether and how the feeding regime should be revised, managers used a structured decision making approach informed by population responses to alternative feeding regimes. The decision was made to reduce the spatial distribution of feeders and invest saved time in increasing volume of food delivered into a smaller core area. The approach used allowed a transparent and defendable management decision in regard to supplementary feeding, reflecting the multiple objectives of managers and their priorities

China's growth prospects and the 'two' Chinas

In the first three decades of the former Soviet Union its rate of urbanisation was approximately the same as it has been in China since 1978. Yet despite plenty of platitudes from Western academics, politicians and members of the media, the Soviet Union eventually collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions. While it was easy to centrally plan urbanisation and the growth of its industrial sector from a low base, the Soviet Union never managed to take the requisite next step towards entrepreneurship and services - led growth. To do so would have necessitated abandoning much of what had worked for it in previous decades, allowing market forces and the incentives they create to respond to the tastes of consumers rather than that of the nomenklatura . This is the position that China faces today and has done since its double digit growth dipped in 2009, impacting on both its domestic economy and on global growt

Advanced maternal age

The average age of women at childbirth in industrialised nations has been increasing steadily for approximately 30 years. Women aged 35 years or over have an increased risk of gestational hypertensive disease, gestational diabetes, placenta praevia, placental abruption, perinatal death, preterm labour, fetal macrosomia and fetal growth restriction. Unsurprisingly, rates of obstetric intervention are higher among older women. Of particular concern is the increased risk of antepartum stillbirth at term in women of advanced maternal age. In all maternal age groups, the risk of stillbirth is higher among nulliparous women than among multiparous women. Women of advanced maternal age (more than 40 years) should be given low dose aspirin (in the presence of an additional risk factor for pre-eclampsia) and offered serial ultrasounds for fetal growth and wellbeing; given the increased risk of antepartum stillbirth, induction of labour from 39 weeks’ gestation should be discussed with the woman

Discrepancies between registration and publication of randomised controlled trials: an observational study

Abstract OBJECTIVES: To determine the consistency between information contained in the registration and publication of randomised controlled trials (RCTs). DESIGN: An observational study of RCTs published between May 2011 and May 2012 in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) and the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) comparing registry data with publication data. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTINGS: Data extracted from published RCTs in BMJ and JAMA. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Timing of trial registration in relation to completion of trial data collection and publication. Registered versus published primary and secondary outcomes, sample size. RESULTS: We identified 40 RCTs in BMJ and 36 in JAMA. All 36 JAMA trials and 39 (98%) BMJ trials were registered. All registered trials were registered prior to publication. Thirty-two (82%) BMJ trials recorded the date of data completion; of these, in two trials the date of trial registration postdated the registered date of data completion. There were discrepancies between primary outcomes declared in the trial registry information and in the published paper in 18 (47%) BMJ papers and seven (19%) JAMA papers. The original sample size stated in the trial registration was achieved in 24 (60%) BMJ papers and 21 (58%) JAMA papers. CONCLUSIONS: Compulsory registration of RCTs is meaningless if the content of registry information is not complete or if discrepancies between registration and publication are not reported. This study demonstrates that discrepancies in primary and secondary outcomes and sample size between trial registration and publication remain commonplace, giving further strength to the World Health Organisation's argument for mandatory completion of a minimum number of compulsory fields