Le Conseil économique du Canada et le modèle CANDIDE

The CANDIDE model has been used by the Economic Council to examine Canada's economic potential, to analyze the effects of economic forces, and to consider the appropriateness of alternative policies in reaching economic objectives. For its Annual Reviews, the model provides an analytical basis for taking into account the interdependence of a number of phenomena, including those related to demographic trends, external economic conditions and domestic policies influencing supply and demand, and thus facilitates estimation of the potential development of the economy over the longer term. Within this context, a realizable set of medium-term objectives can then be established. These have been presented by the Council as performance indicators for the three years immediately ahead and they are subsequently used to monitor and assess economic developments. The model also is used by the Council to examine how various economic influences work their way through the Canadian economy. In its Annual Reviews, for example, the effects of alternative scenarios for energy investment and prices have been considered. In a special study of the construction industry, the model was used to trace the causes and effects of instability in this sector. Some illustrative results from each of these impact studies are provided. The model has also been employed to explore the implications of certain past and future changes in commercial policy, including separating out the impact of the Canada-United States Automobile Agreement, and in examining changes that have been taking place in labour markets. Each of these areas have been the subject of special studies carried out by the Council

The impact of smallholder irrigation on household welfare: The case of Tugela Ferry irrigation scheme in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

The potential of smallholder irrigated agriculture to enhance food security and alleviate rural poverty has led the South African Government to prioritise and invest significantly in irrigation establishment, rehabilitation and revitalisation. The question addressed in this study pertains to the extent to which smallholder irrigation has been able to reduce poverty in the rural communities to justify this investment. Using a sample of 251 farmers, this study found that factors such as land size, perceived soil fertility, household size, and access to support services were significant predictors of irrigation participation. The results from the treatment effect model indicated that access to irrigation plays a positive role in the welfare of rural households, with irrigators spending about ZAR2 000 per adult equivalent on consumption more than the non-irrigators. The study, therefore, concluded that government investments in smallholder irrigation for poverty reduction are justified. The other factors that influenced household consumption were off-farm income, land size, livestock size, education level, family size and access to support services and infrastructure. The study recommends that investments in smallholder irrigation continue for poverty reduction, and that priority should also be on finding other feasible rural micro-projects and development initiatives to complement smallholder irrigation and significantly reduce rural poverty.Keywords: smallholder irrigation, poverty, food security, treatment effect model, Foster Greer Thorbecke (FGT) poverty measure

The economics of managing crop diversity on-farm: Case studies from the genetic resources policy initiative

The purpose of this book is to assess a variety of economic issues as they relate to agro-biodiversity and show how addressing these issues can assist in agro-biodiversity policy-making. This is illustrated using empirical data from some of the countries (Ethiopia, Nepal and Zambia) which are part of the Genetic Resources Policy Initiative. The empirical chapters apply the relevant economic methods, including regression analysis, choice experiments, hedonic pricing, contingent valuation and farm business income analysis. The authors discuss the economics of managing crop diversity on-farm in the context of crop variety attribute preferences, farmers' perception of agro-biodiversity loss, and value addition and marketing of the products of traditional crop varieties. The case studies include detailed analysis of traditional varieties of groundnut, maize, rice, sorghum, and teff. The results are relevant not only to GRPI countries but also to other countries concerned with the sustainable utilization of these resources. Overall, the studies illustrate how genetic resources issues can be integrated into rural development interventions

Le Conseil économique du Canada et le modèle CANDIDE

The CANDIDE model has been used by the Economic Council to examine Canada's economic potential, to analyze the effects of economic forces, and to consider the appropriateness of alternative policies in reaching economic objectives. For its Annual Reviews, the model provides an analytical basis for taking into account the interdependence of a number of phenomena, including those related to demographic trends, external economic conditions and domestic policies influencing supply and demand, and thus facilitates estimation of the potential development of the economy over the longer term. Within this context, a realizable set of medium-term objectives can then be established. These have been presented by the Council as performance indicators for the three years immediately ahead and they are subsequently used to monitor and assess economic developments. The model also is used by the Council to examine how various economic influences work their way through the Canadian economy. In its Annual Reviews, for example, the effects of alternative scenarios for energy investment and prices have been considered. In a special study of the construction industry, the model was used to trace the causes and effects of instability in this sector. Some illustrative results from each of these impact studies are provided. The model has also been employed to explore the implications of certain past and future changes in commercial policy, including separating out the impact of the Canada-United States Automobile Agreement, and in examining changes that have been taking place in labour markets. Each of these areas have been the subject of special studies carried out by the Council.

Collective action and participation in irrigation water management: A case study of Mooi River Irrigation Scheme in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa

In line with the current focus of most developing countries to transfer management of communal irrigation schemes from state to users, an understanding of the determinants of farmer participation in collective activities forms the basis to improve the management of previously government-funded schemes, which are characterised by poor maintenance and performance when farmers are left to manage the schemes on their own. Cross-sectional data collected from 307 respondents in the Mooi River Irrigation Scheme (MRIS) in KwaZulu-Natal were used to identify the determinants of farmer participation in collective activities. The results of the Tobit and Ordered Probit models suggest that collective activities are negatively affected by low farmer-literacy levels. Number of consecutive days that farmers spend without access to irrigation water per week was used as a proxy for water scarcity, and was confirmed to be a significant determinant of farmer participation. The existing incentives for water-users in the MRIS need to be improved to encourage farmer participation in collective water management. This calls for strengthening of local water management systems and institutional policies to ensure maximum benefits from participating in collective activities. The study noted the complexity of managing common pool resources at a localised level, and pointed to the need to further understand the institutional dynamics in which smallholder irrigation farmers operate.Keywords: Collective action, participation intensity, smallholder irrigation scheme, South Afric

Why do some adults change their minds about what is important in the visual arts? : a case study

This-~-case study used ethnographic-methodo-logy. --The research project was an introductory study of one adult's present and past experiences with the visual arts, exploring, in particular, the causes and processes that were related to the individual's changes of mind in order to develop an understanding of why that individual had changed her mind about what was significant in the visual arts. The individual who provided the data was a solid supporter of art galleries: female, middle-aged, graduate of university and college, married with two children, and living in an urban community. The data were collected from two informal conversational interviews and from a written description of one change experience selected by the participant. The individual had positive experiences with art during early childhood, in elementary and secondary school, during university, in avocational drawing and painting studio courses, and in aesthetic experiences. All of these experiences have had individual effects and, together, they have had a cumulative effect on the development of the participant's opinions and ideas about the visual arts. The experiences which had the most effect on the development of the individual's perspectives on the visual arts were handson studio, educational, and aesthetic experiences. Further research is suggested to investigate why some adults change their minds about the visual arts

Sidelobes in the response of arrayed waveguide gratings caused by polarization rotation

Earlier it was observed that polarization rotation in an AWG built from birefringent waveguides can result in sidelobes in its response. This effect was measured in a polarization sensitive AWG with an orthogonal layout. Now we investigate through detailed simulation whether this effect also exists in polarization desensitised AWGs. It is shown that a dispersion compensated AWG does not suffer from a polarization sidelobe. Alternatively, the AWG can be designed to minimize polarization rotation to suppress the sidelobe

Youth Service in Comparative Perspective

Youth Service in Comparative Perspectiv

Causal nexus between agricultural credit rationing and repayment performance: A two-stage Tobit regression

The probability that the beneficiary would default on future payments poses a great risk to extending agricultural credit. Also, previous research on farmers' repayment of agricultural credit emphasized that a high default rate is a growing concern, thereby becoming a tall order for financial institutions to lend to farmers. Similarly, past studies accentuate an increasing focus on socio-economic characteristics as factors that explain the repayment rate. The nexus between repayment rates and credit rationing has not been well analyzed. The effect of credit rationing on repayment rate was therefore investigated. The study, therefore, investigates the causal effects of credit rationing on loan repayment performance using a structured questionnaire to elicit information from selected 240 respondents via a three-stage method of sampling technique, and the instrumental variable Tobit technique to analyze the effect of credit rationing on repayment performance. The result showed that the majority (70.83%) of the respondents are males, the mean age was 51 years with an average education year of 12.65. The result of instrumental variable Tobit regression confirmed the endogeneity of rationing rate (Wald test of exogeneity = Wald Chi2 (1) = 67.26; Prob > chi2 = 0.000) at a 1% level of statistical significance. The result with a Log-likelihood function (265.62459) revealed that the ration rate, among others, with coefficients of 0.4335, was a crucial factor in ascertaining the rate of repayment at various significant levels of the arable crop farmers in the research area. The key finding is that credit rationing did have a significantly positive influence on agricultural credit repayment. The research concluded that the significance of credit rationing in influencing the likelihood of repayment rate, points to the vital significance of adequacy in rationing borrowers