Sepsis carries a high mortality among hospitalised adults in Malawi in the era of antiretroviral therapy scale-up: A longitudinal cohort study

Objective: To assess mortality risk among adults presenting to an African teaching hospital with sepsis and severe sepsis in a setting of high HIV prevalence and widespread ART uptake. Methods: Prospective cohort study of adults (age ≥16 years) admitted with clinical suspicion of severe infection between November 2008 and January 2009 to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, a 1250-bed government-funded hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. Demographic, clinical and laboratory information, including blood and cerebrospinal fluid cultures were obtained on admission. Results: Data from 213 patients (181 with sepsis and 32 with severe sepsis; M:F = 2:3) were analysed. 161 (75.6%) patients were HIV-positive. Overall mortality was 22%, rising to 50% amongst patients with severe sepsis. The mortality of all sepsis patients commenced on antiretroviral therapy (ART) within 90 days was 11/28 (39.3%) compared with 7/42 (16.7%) among all sepsis patients on ART for greater than 90 days (p = 0.050). Independent associations with death were hypoxia (OR = 2.4; 95% CI, 1.1-5.1) and systolic hypotension (OR 7.0; 95% CI: 2.4-20.4). Conclusions: Sepsis and severe sepsis carry high mortality among hospitalised adults in Malawi. Measures to reduce this, including early identification and targeted intervention in high-risk patients, especially HIV-positive individuals recently commenced on ART, are urgently required

Severity Assessment of Lower Respiratory Tract Infection in Malawi: Derivation of a Novel Index (SWAT-Bp) Which Outperforms CRB-65

OBJECTIVE: To assess the validity of CRB-65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate >30 breaths/min, BP<90/60 mmHg, age >65 years) as a pneumonia severity index in a Malawian hospital population, and determine whether an alternative score has greater accuracy in this setting. DESIGN: Forty three variables were prospectively recorded during the first 48 hours of admission in all patients admitted to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Malawi, for management of lower respiratory tract infection over a two month period (N = 240). Calculation of sensitivity and specificity for CRB-65 in predicting mortality was followed by multivariate modeling to create a score with superior performance in this population. RESULTS: Median age 37, HIV prevalence 79.9%, overall mortality 18.3%. CRB-65 predicted mortality poorly, indicated by the area under the ROC curve of 0.649. Independent predictors of death were: Male sex, “S” (AOR 2.6); Wasting, “W” (AOR 6.6); non-ambulatory, “A” (AOR 2.5); Temp >38°C or <35°C, “T” (AOR 3.2); BP<100/60, “Bp” (AOR 3.7). Combining these factors to form a severity index (SWAT-Bp) predicted mortality with high sensitivity and specificity (AUC: 0.867). Mortality for scores 0–5 was 0%, 3.3%, 7.4%, 29.2%, 61.5% and 87.5% respectively. A score ≥3 was 84% sensitive and 77% specific for mortality prediction, with a negative predictive value of 95.8%. CONCLUSION: CRB-65 performs poorly in this population. The SWAT-Bp score can accurately stratify patients; ≤2 indicates non-severe infection (mortality 4.4%) and ≥3 severe illness (mortality 45%)

HIV viral load non-suppression and associated factors among pregnant and postpartum women in rural northeastern South Africa: a cross-sectional survey.

ObjectivesWe aimed to measure the prevalence of maternal HIV viral load (VL) non-suppression and assess associated factors, to evaluate progress towards United Nations-AIDS (UNAIDS) targets.DesignCross-sectional study.SettingThe eight largest community health centres of Ehlanzeni, a rural district in northeast South Africa.ParticipantsPregnant women living with HIV (WLHIV) in their third trimester and postpartum WLHIV and their biological infants, recruited equally across all stages of the first 24 months post partum, were included. A sample of 612 mothers participated from a target of 1000.Primary outcome measuresThe primary outcome was maternal VL (mVL) non-suppression (defined here as mVL >1000 copies/mL). We collected information on antiretroviral use, healthcare visits and sociodemographics through interviews and measured plasma mVL. Descriptive statistics, χ2 tests and multivariable logistic regression analysis were conducted.ResultsAll mothers (median age: 30 years) were on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and 24.9% were on ART ≤12 months. The prevalence of mVL non-suppression was 14.7% (95% CI: 11.3% to 19.0%), while 13.8% had low-level viraemia (50-1000 copies/mL). Most (68.9%) women had initiated breast feeding and 37.6% were currently breast feeding their infants. Being younger than 25 years (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.6 (95% CI: 1.1 to 6.4)), on first-line ART (AOR: 2.3 (95% CI: 1.1 to 4.6)) and married/cohabiting (AOR: 1.9 (95% CI: 1.0 to 3.7)) were significantly associated with increased odds of mVL non-suppression.ConclusionsThe prevalence of mVL ≤1000 copies/mL of 85.3% among pregnant and postpartum WLHIV and attending public healthcare centres in this rural district is below the 2020 90-90-90 and 2030 95-95-95 UNAIDS targets. Given that low-level viraemia may also increase the risk of vertical HIV transmission, we recommend strengthened implementation of the new guidelines which include better ART options, improved ART regimen switching and mVL monitoring schedules, and intensified psychosocial support for younger women, while exploring district-level complementary interventions, to sustain VLs below 50 copies/mL among all women

ROC curves for mortality prediction by SWAT-Bp and CRB-65 scores.

<p>ROC curves for mortality prediction by SWAT-Bp and CRB-65 scores.</p

CRB-65 and SWAT-Bp scores; mortality prediction and test characteristics.

<p>CRB-65 and SWAT-Bp scores; mortality prediction and test characteristics.</p

The effect of a tuberculosis chest X-ray image reference set on non-expert reader performance

Objectives In low-resource settings, limitations in diagnostic accuracy of chest X-rays (CXR) for pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) relate partly to non-expert interpretation. We piloted a TB CXR Image Reference Set (TIRS) to improve non-expert performance in an operational setting in Malawi. Methods Nineteen doctors and clinical officers read 60 CXR of patients with suspected PTB, at baseline and using TIRS. Two officers also used the CXR Reading and Recording System (CRRS). Correct treatment decisions were assessed against a “gold standard” of mycobacterial culture and expert performance. Results TIRS significantly increased overall non-expert sensitivity from 67.6 (SD 14.9) to 75.5 (SD 11.1, P = 0.013), approaching expert values of 84.2 (SD 5.2). Among doctors, correct decisions increased from 60.7 % (SD 7.9) to 67.1 % (SD 8.0, P = 0.054). Clinical officers increased in sensitivity from 68.0 % (SD 15) to 77.4 % (SD 10.7, P = 0.056), but decreased in specificity from 55.0 % (SD 23.9) to 40.8 % (SD 10.4, P = 0.049). Two officers made correct treatment decisions with TIRS in 62.7 %. CRRS training increased this to 67.8 %. Conclusion Use of a CXR image reference set increased correct decisions by doctors to treat PTB. This tool may provide a low-cost intervention improving non-expert performance, translating into improved clinical care. Further evaluation is warranted