Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.

Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period

Model studies on the role of moist convection as a mechanism for interaction between the mesoscales

A three year research effort is described which had as its goal the development of techniques to improve the numerical prediction of cumulus convection on the meso-beta and meso-gamma scales. Two MESO models are used, the MASS (mesoscale) and TASS (cloud scale) models. The primary meteorological situation studied is the 28-29 Jun. 1986 Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX) study area on a day with relatively weak large scale forcing. The problem of determining where and when convection should be initiated is considered to be a major problem of current approaches. Assimilation of moisture data from satellite, radar, and surface data is shown to significantly improve mesoscale simulations. The TASS model is shown to reproduce some observed mesoscale features when initialized with 3-D observational data. Convection evolution studies center on comparison of the Kuo and Fritsch-Chappell cumulus parameterization schemes to each other, and to cloud model results. The Fritsch-Chappell scheme is found to be superior at about 30 km resolution, while the Kuo scheme does surprisingly well in simulating convection down to 10 km in cases where convergence features are well-resolved by the model grid. Results from MASS-TASS interaction experiments are presented and discussed. A discussion of the future of convective simulation is given, with the conclusion that significant progress is possible on several fronts in the next few years

The structure of human 5-lipoxygenase

The synthesis of both proinflammatory leukotrienes and anti-inflammatory lipoxins requires the enzyme 5-lipoxygenase (5-LOX). 5-LOX activity is short-lived, apparently in part because of an intrinsic instability of the enzyme. We identified a 5-LOX-specific destabilizing sequence that is involved in orienting the carboxyl terminus, which binds the catalytic iron. Here, we report the crystal structure at 2.4 angstrom resolution of human 5-LOX stabilized by replacement of this sequence

Using the Indirect Cohort Design to Estimate the Effectiveness of the Seven Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in England and Wales

BACKGROUND: The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) was introduced in the United Kingdom in 2006 with a 2, 3 and 13 month schedule, and has led to large decreases in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by the vaccine serotypes in both vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. We estimated the effectiveness of PCV-7 against IPD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used enhanced surveillance data, collated at the Health Protection Agency, on vaccine type (n = 153) and non vaccine type (n = 919) IPD cases eligible for PCV-7. The indirect cohort method, a case-control type design which uses non vaccine type cases as controls, was used to estimate effectiveness of various numbers of doses as well as for each vaccine serotype. Possible bias with this design, caused by differential serotype replacement in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, was estimated after deriving formulae to quantify the bias. The results showed good effectiveness, increasing from 56% (95% confidence interval (CI): -7-82) for a single dose given under one year of age to 93% (95% CI: 70-98) for two doses under one year of age plus a booster dose in the second year of life. Serotype specific estimates indicated higher effectiveness against serotypes 4, 14 and 18C and lower effectiveness against 6B. Under the assumption of complete serotype replacement by non vaccine serotypes in carriage, we estimated that effectiveness estimates may be overestimated by about 2 to 5%. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows high effectiveness of PCV-7 under the reduced schedule used in the UK. This finding agrees with the large reductions seen in vaccine type IPD in recent years in England and Wales. The formulae derived to assess the bias of the indirect cohort method for PCV-7 can also be used when using the design for other vaccines that affect carriage such as the recently introduced 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine

Carbonate Assimilation at Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia: Insights from Crystal Isotope Stratigraphy

Recent basaltic andesite lavas from Merapi volcano contain abundant, complexly zoned, plagioclase phenocrysts, analysed here for their petrographic textures, major element composition and Sr isotope composition. Anorthite (An) content in individual crystals can vary by as much as 55 mol% (An40-95) across internal resorption surfaces with a negative correlation between high An mol% (>70), MgO wt% and FeO wt%. In situ Sr isotope analyses of zoned plagioclase phenocrysts show that the 87Sr/86Sr ratios of individual zones range from 0·70568 to 0·70627. The upper end of this range is notably more radiogenic than the host basaltic andesite whole-rocks (< 0·70574). Crystal zones with the highest An content have the highest 87Sr/86Sr values, requiring a source or melt with elevated radiogenic Sr, rich in Ca and with lower Mg and Fe. Recent Merapi eruptive rocks contain abundant xenoliths, including metamorphosed volcanoclastic sediment and carbonate country rock (calc-silicate skarns) analysed here for petrographic textures, mineralogy, major element composition and Sr isotope composition. The xenoliths contain extremely calcic plagioclase (up to An100) and have whole-rock 87Sr/86Sr ratios of 0·70584 to 0·70786. The presence of these xenoliths and their mineralogy and geochemistry, coupled with the 87Sr/86Sr ratios observed in different zones of individual phenocrysts, indicate that magma-crust interaction at Merapi is potentially more significant than previously thought, as numerous crystal cores in the phenocrysts appear to be inherited from a metamorphosed sedimentary crustal source. This has potentially significant consequences for geochemical mass-balance calculations, volatile saturation and flux and eruptive behaviour at Merapi and similar island arc volcanic systems elsewher

Conversion of human 5-lipoxygenase to a 15-lipoxygenase by a point mutation to mimic phosphorylation at Serine-663

The enzyme 5-lipoxygenase (5-LOX) initiates biosynthesis of the proinflammatory leukotriene lipid mediators and, together with 15-LOX, is also required for synthesis of the anti-inflammatory lipoxins. The catalytic activity of 5-LOX is regulated through multiple mechanisms, including Ca 2+-targeted membrane binding and phosphorylation at specific serine residues. To investigate the consequences of phosphorylation at S663, we mutated the residue to the phosphorylation mimic Asp, providing a homogenous preparation suitable for catalytic and structural studies. The S663D enzyme exhibits robust 15-LOX activity, as determined by spectrophotometric and HPLC analyses, with only traces of 5-LOX activity remaining; synthesis of the anti-inflammatory lipoxin A4 from arachidonic acid is also detected. The crystal structure of the S663D mutant in the absence and presence of arachidonic acid (in the context of the previously reported Stable-5-LOX) reveals substantial remodeling of helices that define the active site so that the once fully encapsulated catalytic machinery is solvent accessible. Our results suggest that phosphorylation of 5-LOX at S663 could not only down-regulate leukotriene synthesis but also stimulate lipoxin production in inflammatory cells that do not express 15-LOX, thus redirecting lipid mediator biosynthesis to the production of proresolving mediators of inflammation. © FASEB

Common data elements to standardize genomics studies in cerebral palsy

Aim To define clinical common data elements (CDEs) and a mandatory minimum data set (MDS) for genomic studies of cerebral palsy (CP). Method Candidate data elements were collated following a review of the literature and existing CDEs. An online, three-round Delphi survey was used to rate each data element as either ‘core’, ‘recommended’, ‘exploratory’, or ‘not required’. Members of the International Cerebral Palsy Genomics Consortium (ICPGC) rated the core CDEs as either mandatory or not, to form the MDS. For both the CDEs and the MDS, a data element was considered to have reached consensus if more than 75% of respondents agreed. Results Forty-six individuals from around the world formed the Delphi panel: consumers (n=2), scientists/researchers (n=17), medical (n=19), and allied health professionals (n=8). The CDEs include 107 data elements across six categories: demographics, diagnostics, family history, antenatal and neonatal details, clinical traits, and CP-specific assessments. Of these, 10 are mandatory, 42 core, 41 recommended, and 14 are exploratory. Interpretation The ICPGC CDEs provide a foundation for the standardization of phenotype data captured in CP genomic studies and will benefit international collaborations and pooling of data, particularly in rare conditions

People with cerebral palsy and their family’s preferences about genomics research

Introduction: The goal of this study was to understand individuals with cerebral palsy (CP) and their family’s attitudes and preferences to genomic research, including international data sharing and biobanking. Methods: Individuals with CP and their family members were invited to participate in the web-based survey via email (NSW/ACT CP Register) or via posts on social media by Cerebral Palsy Alliance, CP Research Network, and CP Now. Survey responses included yes/no/unsure, multiple choices, and Likert scales. Fisher’s exact and χ2 tests were used to assess if there were significant differences between subgroups. Results: Individuals with CP and their families (n = 145) were willing to participate in genomics research (68%), data sharing (82%), and biobanking efforts (75%). This willingness to participate was associated with completion of tertiary education, previous genetic testing experience, overall higher genomic awareness, and trust in international researchers. The survey respondents also expressed ongoing communication and diverse information needs regarding the use of their samples and data. Major concerns were associated with privacy and data security. Discussion: The success of genomic research and international data sharing efforts in CP are contingent upon broad support and recruitment. Ongoing consultation and engagement of individuals with CP and their families will facilitate trust and promote increased awareness of genomics in CP that may in turn maximize participant uptake and recruitment

Reconnaissance Basement Geology and Tectonics of South Zealandia

We report new U‐Pb zircon ages, geochemical and isotopic data for Mesozoic igneous rocks, and new seismic interpretations of mostly submerged South Zealandia (1.5 Mkm2). We use these data, along with existing geological and geophysical data sets, to refine the extent and nature of geological units. Our new 1:25 M geological map of South Zealandia provides a regional framework to investigate the rifting and breakup that formed Zealandia, Earth's most submerged continent. Samples of prerift (pre‐100 Ma) plutonic rocks can be matched with on‐land New Zealand igneous suites and indicate an east‐west strike for the subduction‐related 260 to 105‐Ma Median Batholith across the Campbell Plateau. The plutonic chronology of formerly contiguous plutonic rocks in West Antarctica reveals similar pulses and lulls to the Median Batholith. Contrary to previous interpretations, the Median Batholith does not coincide with the 1,600‐km‐long Campbell Magnetic Anomaly System. Instead we interpret the continental magnetic anomalies to represent a mainly mafic igneous unit, whose shape and extent is controlled by synrift structures related to Gondwana breakup. Correlatives of some of these unsampled igneous rocks may be exposed as circa 85 Ma alkalic volcanic rocks on the Chatham Islands. Extension directions varied by up to 65° from 100 to 80 Ma, and we suggest this allowed this large area to thin considerably before final rupture to form new oceanic crust. Synrift (90–80 Ma) structures cut the oroclinal bend in southern South Island and support a pre‐early Late Cretaceous age of orocline formation.The work was supported by Core Research Funding to GNS Science by the New Zealand Government Ministry of Business, Employment and Innovation