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Concerted Efforts to Control or Eliminate Neglected Tropical Diseases

Background: The London Declaration (2012) was formulated to support and focus the control and elimination of ten neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), with targets for 2020 as formulated by the WHO Roadmap. Five NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths and trachoma) are to be controlled by preventive chemotherapy (PCT), and four (Chagas’ disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis) by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM). Guinea worm, virtually eradicated, is not considered here. We aim to estimate the global health impact of meeting these targets in terms of averted morbidity, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Methods: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study provides prevalence and burden estimates for all nine NTDs in 1990 and 2010, by country, age and sex, which were taken as the basis for our calculations. Estimates for other years were obtained by interpolating between 1990 (or the start-year of large-scale control efforts) and 2010, and further extrapolating until 2030, such that the 2020 targets were met. The NTD disease manifestations considered in the GBD study were analyzed as either reversible or irreversible. Health impacts were assessed by comparing the results of achieving the targets with the counterfactual, construed as the health burden had the 1990 (or 2010 if higher) situation continued unabated. Principle Findings/Conclusions: Our calculations show that meeting the targets will lead to about 600 million averted DALYs in the period 2011–2030, nearly equally distributed between PCT and IDM-NTDs, with the health gain amongst PCT-NTDs mostly (96%) due to averted disability and amongst IDM-NTDs largely (95%) from averted mortality. These health gains include about 150 million averted irreversible disease manifestations (e.g. blindness) and 5 million averted deaths. Control of soil-transmitted helminths accounts for one third of all averted DALYs. We conclude that the projected health impact of the London Declaration justifies the required efforts

Tune in to your emotions: a robust personalized affective music player

The emotional power of music is exploited in a personalized affective music player (AMP) that selects music for mood enhancement. A biosignal approach is used to measure listeners’ personal emotional reactions to their own music as input for affective user models. Regression and kernel density estimation are applied to model the physiological changes the music elicits. Using these models, personalized music selections based on an affective goal state can be made. The AMP was validated in real-world trials over the course of several weeks. Results show that our models can cope with noisy situations and handle large inter-individual differences in the music domain. The AMP augments music listening where its techniques enable automated affect guidance. Our approach provides valuable insights for affective computing and user modeling, for which the AMP is a suitable carrier application

El Pensamiento Probabilístico de los Profesores de Biología en Formación

Los futuros profesores de secundaria requieren de una formación acorde a las demandas de la sociedad del siglo XXI. Ello impone el desarrollo de un pensamiento que le permita interpretar y abordar los fenómenos de naturaleza aleatoria. El objetivo de este trabajo es determinar las tendencias de pensamiento probabilístico de los estudiantes de los profesorados de Biología de la provincia de Mendoza, Argentina. Para ello se aplicó un cuestionario a los 325 estudiantes que cursan esta carrera. El mismo consta de tres partes; la primera trata sobre las variables demográficas de los estudiantes, la segunda corresponde al reconocimiento de la aleatoriedad; y la tercera a la estimación de la probabilidad de diferentes sucesos. Las respuestas se analizaron a partir de la aplicación de diferentes técnicas estadísticas; el test de independencia, el análisis de la varianza, el test de Tukey, análisis de clusters y análisis discriminante. En primer lugar, se encontraron diferencias significativas entre el reconocimiento de la aleatoriedad y el contexto del suceso, siendo mayor en el contexto de juego que en el físico natural. Mientras que, en el contexto físico natural se afirma la aleatoriedad desde la causalidad, en el de juego se afirma desde la incertidumbre. En segundo lugar, no se encontró relación de dependencia entre el reconocimiento de la aleatoriedad y la edad de los estudiantes, como así tampoco con el nivel académico de los mismos. Respecto a la estimación de la probabilidad, los estudiantes argumentan fundamentalmente desde la equiprobabilidad y desde la contingencia. El análisis de clusters y análisis discriminante permitieron encontrar cuatro tendencias de pensamiento: incertidumbre, determinista, contingente y personalista

Behendigheid, toeval en geluk

De Nederlandse wet maakt onderscheid tussen behendigheidsspelen en kansspelen. Het verschil zit in de mate waarin de speler invloed kan uitoefenen op de wijze waarop het spelresultaat wordt bepaald. Het gaat daarbij niet eenvoudigweg om afwezigheid of aanwezigheid van die invloed. Een beetje invloed is nietgoed genoeg: de invloed moet overwegend ziin. Deze formulering is gekozen omdat in bijna ieder spel de uitkomst wordt bepaald door een mengselvan kans en behendigheid

Chance and luck are not the same

In the mind of many people chance and luck act as real but different causes of events. Even in strictly defined situations as casino gambling, people may perceive influences of luck that help to overcome the negative expectancy defined by the rules of chance. Interviews with gamblers in casinos confirmed this idea. In two experiments it was established that the distinction between chance and luck are also made by ordinary subjects in everyday situations. The results revealed that chance is perceived to operate when an event is surprising, an unexpected coincidence. Luck is perceived when an event implies the escape from negative consequences, or the achievement of something that is important and difficult. The distinction between chance and luck can explain why people are trapped by the illusion of control, even when it is clear that they have no influence on the physical causation determining the outcomes of events. They cannot change the outcome of the roulette wheel, but they can employ their luck, which helps them to place their bets on the winning number. Copyright © 1988 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

The design of a visual history tool to help users refind information within a website

On the WWW users frequently revisit information they have previously seen, but "keeping found things found" is difficult when the information has not been visited frequently or recently, even if a user knows which website contained the information. This paper describes the design of a tool to help users refind information within a given website. The tool encodes data about a user's interest in webpages (measured by dwell time), the frequency and recency of visits, and navigational associations between pages, and presents navigation histories in list-and graph-based forms