Pairwise comparison matrices and the error-free property of the decision maker

Pairwise comparison is a popular assessment method either for deriving criteria-weights or for evaluating alternatives according to a given criterion. In real-world applications consistency of the comparisons rarely happens: intransitivity can occur. The aim of the paper is to discuss the relationship between the consistency of the decision maker—described with the error-free property—and the consistency of the pairwise comparison matrix (PCM). The concept of error-free matrix is used to demonstrate that consistency of the PCM is not a sufficient condition of the error-free property of the decision maker. Informed and uninformed decision makers are defined. In the first stage of an assessment method a consistent or near-consistent matrix should be achieved: detecting, measuring and improving consistency are part of any procedure with both types of decision makers. In the second stage additional information are needed to reveal the decision maker’s real preferences. Interactive questioning procedures are recommended to reach that goal

Cost-effectiveness of HBV and HCV screening strategies:a systematic review of existing modelling techniques

Introduction: Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. Methods: A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. Results: The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. Conclusion: When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers

Theoretical analysis of the mechanisms of a gender differentiation in the propensity for orthostatic intolerance after spaceflight

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A tendency to develop reentry orthostasis after a prolonged exposure to microgravity is a common problem among astronauts. The problem is 5 times more prevalent in female astronauts as compared to their male counterparts. The mechanisms responsible for this gender differentiation are poorly understood despite many detailed and complex investigations directed toward an analysis of the physiologic control systems involved.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this study, a series of computer simulation studies using a mathematical model of cardiovascular functioning were performed to examine the proposed hypothesis that this phenomenon could be explained by basic physical forces acting through the simple common anatomic differences between men and women. In the computer simulations, the circulatory components and hydrostatic gradients of the model were allowed to adapt to the physical constraints of microgravity. After a simulated period of one month, the model was returned to the conditions of earth's gravity and the standard postflight tilt test protocol was performed while the model output depicting the typical vital signs was monitored.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The analysis demonstrated that a 15% lowering of the longitudinal center of gravity in the anatomic structure of the model was all that was necessary to prevent the physiologic compensatory mechanisms from overcoming the propensity for reentry orthostasis leading to syncope.</p

International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force Consensus Proposal: Diagnostic approach to epilepsy in dogs

This article outlines the consensus proposal on diagnosis of epilepsy in dogs by the International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force. The aim of this consensus proposal is to improve consistency in the diagnosis of epilepsy in the clinical and research settings. The diagnostic approach to the patient presenting with a history of suspected epileptic seizures incorporates two fundamental steps: to establish if the events the animal is demonstrating truly represent epileptic seizures and if so, to identify their underlying cause. Differentiation of epileptic seizures from other non-epileptic episodic paroxysmal events can be challenging. Criteria that can be used to make this differentiation are presented in detail and discussed. Criteria for the diagnosis of idiopathic epilepsy (IE) are described in a three-tier system. Tier I confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on a history of two or more unprovoked epileptic seizures occurring at least 24 h apart, age at epileptic seizure onset of between six months and six years, unremarkable inter-ictal physical and neurological examination, and no significant abnormalities on minimum data base blood tests and urinalysis. Tier II confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on the factors listed in tier I and unremarkable fasting and post-prandial bile acids, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain (based on an epilepsy-specific brain MRI protocol) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis. Tier III confidence level for the diagnosis of IE is based on the factors listed in tier I and II and identification of electroencephalographic abnormalities characteristic for seizure disorders. The authors recommend performing MRI of the brain and routine CSF analysis, after exclusion of reactive seizures, in dogs with age at epileptic seizure onset 6 years, inter-ictal neurological abnormalities consistent with intracranial neurolocalisation, status epilepticus or cluster seizure at epileptic seizure onset, or a previous presumptive diagnosis of IE and drug-resistance with a single antiepileptic drug titrated to the highest tolerable dose

Changes in Cytokine Levels and NK Cell Activation Associated with Influenza

Several studies have highlighted the important role played by murine natural killer (NK) cells in the control of influenza infection. However, human NK cell responses in acute influenza infection, including infection with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus, are poorly documented. Here, we examined changes in NK cell phenotype and function and plasma cytokine levels associated with influenza infection and vaccination. We show that absolute numbers of peripheral blood NK cells, and particularly those of CD56bright NK cells, decreased upon acute influenza infection while this NK cell subset expanded following intramuscular influenza vaccination. NK cells exposed to influenza antigens were activated, with higher proportions of NK cells expressing CD69 in study subjects infected with seasonal influenza strains. Vaccination led to increased levels of CD25+ NK cells, and notably CD56bright CD25+ NK cells, whereas decreased amounts of this subset were present in the peripheral blood of influenza infected individuals, and predominantly in study subjects infected with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. Finally, acute influenza infection was associated with low plasma concentrations of inflammatory cytokines, including IFN-γ, MIP-1β, IL-2 and IL-15, and high levels of the anti-inflammatory cytokines IL-10 and IL-1ra. Altogether, these data suggest a role for the CD56bright NK cell subset in the response to influenza, potentially involving their recruitment to infected tissues and a local production and/or uptake of inflammatory cytokines

Reactive oxygen species initiate luminal but not basal cell death in cultured human mammary alveolar structures: a potential regulator of involution

Post-lactational involution of the mammary gland is initiated within days of weaning. Clearing of cells occurs by apoptosis of the milk-secreting luminal cells in the alveoli and through stromal tissue remodeling to return the gland almost completely to its pre-pregnant state. The pathways that specifically target involution of the luminal cells in the alveoli but not the basal and ductal cells are poorly understood. In this study we show in cultured human mammary alveolar structures that the involution process is initiated by fresh media withdrawal, and is characterized by cellular oxidative stress, expression of activated macrophage marker CD68 and finally complete clearing of the luminal but not basal epithelial layer. This process can be simulated by ectopic addition of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in cultures without media withdrawal. Cells isolated from post-involution alveoli were enriched for the CD49f+ mammary stem cell (MaSC) phenotype and were able to reproduce a complete alveolar structure in subcultures without any significant loss in viability. We propose that the ROS produced by accumulated milk breakdown post-weaning may be the mechanism underlying the selective involution of secretory alveolar luminal cells, and that our culture model represents an useful means to investigate this and other mechanisms further

Electromagnetic N-Δ\Delta transition form factors in a covariant quark-diquark model

The electromagnetic N-$\Delta$ transition form factors are calculated in the framework of a formally covariant constituent diquark model. As a spin-3/2 particle the $\Delta$ is assumed to be a bound state of a quark and an axial-vector diquark. The wave function is obtained from a diquark-quark Salpeter equation with an instantaneous quark exchange potential. The three transition form factors are calculated for momentum transfers squared from the pseudothreshold $(M_\Delta-M_N)^2$ up to $-2 (GeV/c)^2$. The magnetic form factor is in qualitative agreement with experiment. We find very interesting results for the ratios E2/M1 and C2/M1.Comment: 16 pp, RevTeX, 7 figs, uses eps

Genome Scan of M. tuberculosis Infection and Disease in Ugandans

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), is an enduring public health problem globally, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Several studies have suggested a role for host genetic susceptibility in increased risk for TB but results across studies have been equivocal. As part of a household contact study of Mtb infection and disease in Kampala, Uganda, we have taken a unique approach to the study of genetic susceptibility to TB, by studying three phenotypes. First, we analyzed culture confirmed TB disease compared to latent Mtb infection (LTBI) or lack of Mtb infection. Second, we analyzed resistance to Mtb infection in the face of continuous exposure, defined by a persistently negative tuberculin skin test (PTST-); this outcome was contrasted to LTBI. Third, we analyzed an intermediate phenotype, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFα) expression in response to soluble Mtb ligands enriched with molecules secreted from Mtb (culture filtrate). We conducted a full microsatellite genome scan, using genotypes generated by the Center for Medical Genetics at Marshfield. Multipoint model-free linkage analysis was conducted using an extension of the Haseman-Elston regression model that includes half sibling pairs, and HIV status was included as a covariate in the model. The analysis included 803 individuals from 193 pedigrees, comprising 258 full sibling pairs and 175 half sibling pairs. Suggestive linkage (p<10−3) was observed on chromosomes 2q21-2q24 and 5p13-5q22 for PTST-, and on chromosome 7p22-7p21 for TB; these findings for PTST- are novel and the chromosome 7 region contains the IL6 gene. In addition, we replicated recent linkage findings on chromosome 20q13 for TB (p = 0.002). We also observed linkage at the nominal α = 0.05 threshold to a number of promising candidate genes, SLC11A1 (PTST- p = 0.02), IL-1 complex (TB p = 0.01), IL12BR2 (TNFα p = 0.006), IL12A (TB p = 0.02) and IFNGR2 (TNFα p = 0.002). These results confirm not only that genetic factors influence the interaction between humans and Mtb but more importantly that they differ according to the outcome of that interaction: exposure but no infection, infection without progression to disease, or progression of infection to disease. Many of the genetic factors for each of these stages are part of the innate immune system

Challenges in measuring measles case fatality ratios in settings without vital registration

Measles, a highly infectious vaccine-preventable viral disease, is potentially fatal. Historically, measles case-fatality ratios (CFRs) have been reported to vary from 0.1% in the developed world to as high as 30% in emergency settings. Estimates of the global burden of mortality from measles, critical to prioritizing measles vaccination among other health interventions, are highly sensitive to the CFR estimates used in modeling; however, due to the lack of reliable, up-to-date data, considerable debate exists as to what CFR estimates are appropriate to use. To determine current measles CFRs in high-burden settings without vital registration we have conducted six retrospective measles mortality studies in such settings. This paper examines the methodological challenges of this work and our solutions to these challenges, including the integration of lessons from retrospective all-cause mortality studies into CFR studies, approaches to laboratory confirmation of outbreaks, and means of obtaining a representative sample of case-patients. Our experiences are relevant to those conducting retrospective CFR studies for measles or other diseases, and to those interested in all-cause mortality studies

The association of Social Anxiety Disorder, Alcohol Use Disorder and reproduction: Results from four nationally representative samples of adults in the USA.

Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD) and Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) are highly prevalent and frequently co-occur. The results of population studies suggest that SAD tends to precede AUD, and the results of laboratory studies suggest that alcohol use facilitates social behaviors in socially anxious individuals. Therefore, we posited that, in a modern context, a tendency to consume alcohol may be positively selected for among socially anxious individuals by its effect on the likelihood of finding a partner and reproducing. We tested the hypothesis that a higher proportion of individuals with a lifetime diagnosis of SAD and AUD reproduce (i.e., have at least one child) relative to individuals with SAD absent AUD in an individual participant meta-analysis based on over 65,000 adults derived from four nationally representative cross-sectional samples. We then cross-validated these findings against the results of a 10-year follow up of one of these surveys. Lifetime history of SAD was not associated with reproduction whereas lifetime history of AUD was positively associated with reproduction. There was no statistically detectable difference in the proportion of individuals with a lifetime history of SAD with or without AUD who reproduced. There was considerable heterogeneity in all of the analyses involving SAD, suggesting that there are likely to be other pertinent variables relating to SAD and reproduction that should be delineated