Application of Probabilistic Neural Networks in Modelling Structural Deterioration of Stormwater Pipes

In Australia, when stormwater systems were first introduced over 100 years ago, they were constructed independently of the sewer systems, and they are normally the responsibility of the third level of government, i.e., local government or city councils. Because of the increasing age of these stormwater systems and their worsening performance, there are serious concerns in a significant number of city councils regarding their deterioration. A study has been conducted on the structural deterioration of concrete pipes that make up the bulk of the stormwater pipe systems in these councils. In an attempt to look for a reliable deterioration model, a probabilistic neural network (PNN) model was developed using the data set supplied from participating councils. The PNN model was validated with snapshot-based sample data, which makes up the data set. The predictive performance of the PNN model was compared with a traditional parametric model using discriminant analysis on the same data set. Structural deterioration was hypothesised to be influenced by a set of explanatory factors, including pipe design and construction factors—such as pipe size, buried depth—and site factors— such as soil type, moisture index, tree root intrusion, etc. The results show that the PNN model has a better predictive power and uses significantly more input variables (i.e., explanatory factors) than the discriminant model. More importantly, the key factors for prediction in the PNN model are difficult to interpret, suggesting that besides prediction accuracy, model interpretation is an important issue for further investigation

Generalised risk-sensitive control with full and partial state observation

This paper generalises the risk-sensitive cost functional by introducing noise dependent penalties on the state and control variables. The optimal control problems for the full and partial state observation are considered. Using a change of probability measure approach, explicit closed-form solutions are found in both cases. This has resulted in a new risk-sensitive regulator and filter, which are generalisations of the well-known classical results

Impact of inactivated poliovirus vaccine on mucosal immunity: implications for the polio eradication endgame.

The polio eradication endgame aims to bring transmission of all polioviruses to a halt. To achieve this aim, it is essential to block viral replication in individuals via induction of a robust mucosal immune response. Although it has long been recognized that inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) is incapable of inducing a strong mucosal response on its own, it has recently become clear that IPV may boost immunity in the intestinal mucosa among individuals previously immunized with oral poliovirus vaccine. Indeed, mucosal protection appears to be stronger following a booster dose of IPV than oral poliovirus vaccine, especially in older children. Here, we review the available evidence regarding the impact of IPV on mucosal immunity, and consider the implications of this evidence for the polio eradication endgame. We conclude that the implementation of IPV in both routine and supplementary immunization activities has the potential to play a key role in halting poliovirus transmission, and thereby hasten the eradication of polio

Student interpretations of the terms in first-order ordinary differential equations in modelling contexts

A study of first-year undergraduate students′ interpretational difficulties with first-order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in modelling contexts was conducted using a diagnostic quiz, exam questions and follow-up interviews. These investigations indicate that when thinking about such ODEs, many students muddle thinking about the function that gives the quantity to be determined and the equation for the quantity's rate of change, and at least some seem unaware of the need for unit consistency in the terms of an ODE. It appears that shifting from amount-type thinking to rates-of-change-type thinking is difficult for many students. Suggestions for pedagogical change based on our results are made

HVOF and laser cladded Fe-Cr-B coating in simulated biomass combustion: microstructure and fireside corrosion

Biomass is often considered as a low carbon alternative to fossil fuels in the power industry. However the heat exchangers in biomass plants can suffer from chloride based aggressive fireside corrosion. A commercially available amorphous Fe-Cr-B alloy was deposited onto a stainless steel substrate by HVOF thermal spray and laser cladding. The controlled environment corrosion tests were conducted in a HCl rich environment at 700°C for 250 h with and without KCl deposits. The samples were examined with XRD, SEM and EDX mapping to understand the corrosion mechanisms. In the absence of any deposits, the amorphous HVOF coating performed very well with a thin oxide growth whereas the crystalline laser cladding suffered from ~350 μm metal loss. The scales were composed of MnWO₄, Fe₂O₃, Fe₃O₄ and Cr₂O₃. When a KCl deposit was present, the HVOF sprayed coating delaminated from the substrate and MnCl₂ was found in the scale

The views of general practitioners and practice nurses towards the barriers and facilitators of proactive, internet-based chlamydia screening for reaching young heterosexual men

Background: Chlamydia trachomatis is a common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI), which disproportionately affects young people under 25 years. Commonly, more women are offered screening than men. This study obtained the views of general practitioners and practice nurses towards Internet-based screening and assessed levels of support for the development of proactive screening targeting young heterosexual men via the Internet. Methods: Semi-structured telephone interviews with 10 general practitioners and 8 practice nurses, across Central Scotland. Topics covered: experience of screening heterosexual men for chlamydia, views on the use of the Internet as a way to reach young men for chlamydia screening, beliefs about the potential barriers and facilitators to Internet-based screening. Transcripts from audio recordings were analysed with Framework Analysis, using QSR NVivo10. Results: Experiences of chlamydia screening were almost exclusively with women, driven by the nature of consultations and ease of raising sexual health issues with female patients; few practice nurses reported seeing men during consultations. All participants spoke in favour of Internet-based screening for young men. Participants reported ease of access and convenience as potential facilitators of an Internet-based approach but anonymity and confidentiality could be potential barriers and facilitators to the success of an Internet approach to screening. Concerns over practical issues as well as those pertaining to gender and socio-cultural issues were raised. Conclusions: Awareness of key barriers and facilitators, such as confidentiality, practicality and socio-cultural influences, will inform the development of an Internet-based approach to screening. However, this approach may have its limits in terms of being able to tackle wider social and cultural barriers, along with shifts in young people's and health professionals' attitudes towards screening. Nevertheless, employing innovative efforts as part of a multi-faceted approach is required to ensure effective interventions reach the policy agenda

The Lyman-{\alpha} Sky Background as Observed by New Horizons

Recent observations of interplanetary medium (IPM) atomic hydrogen Lyman-{\alpha} (Ly{\alpha}) emission in the outer solar system, made with the Alice ultraviolet spectrograph on New Horizons (NH), are presented. The observations include regularly spaced great-circle scans of the sky and pointed observations near the downstream and upstream flow directions of interstellar H atoms. The NH Alice data agree very well with the much earlier Voyager UVS results, after these are reduced by a factor of 2.4 in brightness, in accordance with recent re-analyses. In particular, the falloff of IPM Ly{\alpha} brightness in the upstream-looking direction as a function of spacecraft distance from the Sun is well-matched by an expected 1/r dependence, but with an added constant brightness of ~40 Rayleighs. This additional brightness is a possible signature of the hydrogen wall at the heliopause or of a more distant background. Ongoing observations are planned at a cadence of roughly twice per year.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Geophys. Res. Let

Survey of Period Variations of Superhumps in SU UMa-Type Dwarf Novae

We systematically surveyed period variations of superhumps in SU UMa-type dwarf novae based on newly obtained data and past publications. In many systems, the evolution of superhump period are found to be composed of three distinct stages: early evolutionary stage with a longer superhump period, middle stage with systematically varying periods, final stage with a shorter, stable superhump period. During the middle stage, many systems with superhump periods less than 0.08 d show positive period derivatives. Contrary to the earlier claim, we found no clear evidence for variation of period derivatives between superoutburst of the same object. We present an interpretation that the lengthening of the superhump period is a result of outward propagation of the eccentricity wave and is limited by the radius near the tidal truncation. We interpret that late stage superhumps are rejuvenized excitation of 3:1 resonance when the superhumps in the outer disk is effectively quenched. Many of WZ Sge-type dwarf novae showed long-enduring superhumps during the post-superoutburst stage having periods longer than those during the main superoutburst. The period derivatives in WZ Sge-type dwarf novae are found to be strongly correlated with the fractional superhump excess, or consequently, mass ratio. WZ Sge-type dwarf novae with a long-lasting rebrightening or with multiple rebrightenings tend to have smaller period derivatives and are excellent candidate for the systems around or after the period minimum of evolution of cataclysmic variables (abridged).Comment: 239 pages, 225 figures, PASJ accepte