Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.

PublishedJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tBACKGROUND: With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. METHODS: We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. FINDINGS: Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (p(high)=19%), Fortaleza (p(high)=46%), and Natal (p(high)=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13). INTERPRETATION: This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup. FUNDING: European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.DENFREE projectEUPORIAS projectSPECS projectEuropean Commission's Seventh Framework Research ProgrammeConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeir

Finance, foreign (direct) investment, and the Dutch disease: the case of Colombia

In recent years Colombia has grown relatively rapidly, but it has been a biased growth. The energy sector (the locomotora minero-energetica, to use the rhetorical expression of President Juan Manuel Santos) grew much faster than the rest of the economy, while the manufacturing sector registered a negative rate of growth. These are classic symptoms of the well-known ‘Dutch disease’, but our purpose here is not to establish whether the Dutch disease exists or not, but rather to shed some light on the financial viability of several, simultaneous dynamics: (i) the existence of a traditional Dutch Disease being due to a large increase in mining exports and a significant exchange rate appreciation; (ii) a massive increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in the mining sector; (iii) a rather passive monetary policy, aimed at increasing purchasing power via exchange rate appreciation; (iv) more recently, a large distribution of dividends from Colombia to the rest of the world and the accumulation of mounting financial liabilities. The paper will show that these dynamics constitute a potential danger for the stability of the Colombian economy. Some policy recommendations are also discussed

Karyotype and genome size of Iberochondrostoma almacai (Teleostei, Cyprinidae) and comparison with the sister-species I.lusitanicum

This study aimed to define the karyotype of the recently described Iberian endemic Iberochondrostoma almacai, to revisit the previously documented chromosome polymorphisms of its sister species I.lusitanicum using C-, Ag-/CMA3 and RE-banding, and to compare the two species genome sizes. A 2n = 50 karyotype (with the exception of a triploid I.lusitanicum specimen) and a corresponding haploid chromosome formula of 7M:15SM:3A (FN = 94) were found. Multiple NORs were observed in both species (in two submetacentric chromosome pairs, one of them clearly homologous) and a higher intra and interpopulational variability was evidenced in I.lusitanicum. Flow cytometry measurements of nuclear DNA content showed some significant differences in genome size both between and within species: the genome of I. almacai was smaller than that of I.lusitanicum (mean values 2.61 and 2.93 pg, respectively), which presented a clear interpopulational variability (mean values ranging from 2.72 to 3.00 pg). These data allowed the distinction of both taxa and confirmed the existence of two well differentiated groups within I. lusitanicum: one that includes the populations from the right bank of the Tejo and Samarra drainages, and another that reunites the southern populations. The peculiar differences between the two species, presently listed as “Critically Endangered”, reinforced the importance of this study for future conservation plans

Unbalanced relationships: insights into the interaction between gut microbiota, geohelminths, and schistosomiasis

Hosts and their microbiota and parasites have co-evolved in an adaptative relationship since ancient times. The interaction between parasites and intestinal bacteria in terms of the hosts’ health is currently a subject of great research interest. Therapeutic interventions can include manipulations of the structure of the intestinal microbiota, which have immunological interactions important for modulating the host’s immune system and for reducing inflammation. Most helminths are intestinal parasites; the intestinal environment provides complex interactions with other microorganisms in which internal and external factors can influence the composition of the intestinal microbiota. Moreover, helminths and intestinal microorganisms can modulate the host’s immune system either beneficially or harmfully. The immune response can be reduced due to co-infection, and bacteria from the intestinal microbiota can translocate to other organs. In this way, the treatment can be compromised, which, together with drug resistance by the parasites makes healing even more difficult. Thus, this work aimed to understand interactions between the microbiota and parasitic diseases caused by the most important geohelminths and schistosomiasis and the consequences of these associations

Mechanical testing of thin-walled zirconia abutments

Although the use of zirconia abutments for implant-supported restorations has gained momentum with the increasing demand for esthetics, little informed design rationale has been developed to characterize their fatigue behavior under different clinical scenarios. However, to prevent the zirconia from fracturing, the use of a titanium connection in bicomponent aesthetic abutments has been suggested. OBJECTIVE: Mechanical testing of customized thin-walled titanium-zirconia abutments at the connection with the implant was performed in order to characterize the fatigue behavior and the failure modes for straight and angled abutments. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Twenty custom-made bi-component abutments were tested according to ISO 14801:2007 either at a straight or a 25º angle inclination (n=10 each group). Fatigue was conducted at 15 Hz for 5 million cycles in dry conditions at 20ºC±5ºC. Mean values and standard deviations were calculated for each group. All comparisons were performed by t-tests assuming unequal variances. The level of statistical significance was set at p≤0.05. Failed samples were inspected in a polarized-light and then in a scanning electron microscope. RESULTS: Straight and angled abutments mean maximum load was 296.7 N and 1,145 N, the dynamic loading mean F(max) was 237.4 N and 240.7 N, respectively. No significant differences resulted between the straight and angled bi-component abutments in both static (p=0.253) and dynamic testing (p=0.135). A significant difference in the bending moment required for fracture was detected between the groups (p=0.01). Fractures in the angled group occurred mainly at the point of load application, whereas in the straight abutments, fractures were located coronally and close to the thinly designed areas at the cervical region. CONCLUSION: Angled or straight thin-walled zirconia abutments presented similar F(max) under fatigue testing despite the different bending moments required for fracture. The main implication is that although zirconia angled or straight abutments presented similar mechanical behavior, the failure mode tended to be more catastrophic in straight (fracture at the cervical region) compared to angled abutments

Relationship between functional fitness, medication costs and mood in elderly people

Objective: to verify if functional fitness (FF) is associated with the annual cost of medication consumption and mood states (MSt) in elderly people. Methods: a cross-sectional study with 229 elderly people aged 65 years or more at Santa Casa de Misericórdia de Coimbra, Portugal. Seniors with physical and psychological limitations were excluded, as well as those using medication that limits performance on the tests. The Senior Fitness Test was used to evaluate FF, and the Profile of Mood States - Short Form to evaluate the MSt. The statistical analysis was based on Mancova, with adjustment for age, for comparison between men and women, and adjustment for sex, for comparison between cardiorespiratory fitness quintiles. The association between the variables under study was made with partial correlation, controlling for the effects of age, sex and body mass index. Results: an inverse correlation between cardiorespiratory fitness and the annual cost of medication consumption was found (p < 0.01). FF is also inversely associated with MSt (p < 0.05). Comparisons between cardiorespiratory fitness quintiles showed higher medication consumption costs in seniors with lower aerobic endurance, as well as higher deterioration in MSt (p < 0.01). Conclusion: elderly people with better FF and, specifically, better cardiorespiratory fitness present lower medication consumption costs and a more positive MSt