Methodological criteria for the assessment of moderators in systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials : a consensus study

Background: Current methodological guidelines provide advice about the assessment of sub-group analysis within RCTs, but do not specify explicit criteria for assessment. Our objective was to provide researchers with a set of criteria that will facilitate the grading of evidence for moderators, in systematic reviews. Method: We developed a set of criteria from methodological manuscripts (n = 18) using snowballing technique, and electronic database searches. Criteria were reviewed by an international Delphi panel (n = 21), comprising authors who have published methodological papers in this area, and researchers who have been active in the study of sub-group analysis in RCTs. We used the Research ANd Development/University of California Los Angeles appropriateness method to assess consensus on the quantitative data. Free responses were coded for consensus and disagreement. In a subsequent round additional criteria were extracted from the Cochrane Reviewers’ Handbook, and the process was repeated. Results: The recommendations are that meta-analysts report both confirmatory and exploratory findings for subgroups analysis. Confirmatory findings must only come from studies in which a specific theory/evidence based apriori statement is made. Exploratory findings may be used to inform future/subsequent trials. However, for inclusion in the meta-analysis of moderators, the following additional criteria should be applied to each study: Baseline factors should be measured prior to randomisation, measurement of baseline factors should be of adequate reliability and validity, and a specific test of the interaction between baseline factors and interventions must be presented. Conclusions: There is consensus from a group of 21 international experts that methodological criteria to assess moderators within systematic reviews of RCTs is both timely and necessary. The consensus from the experts resulted in five criteria divided into two groups when synthesising evidence: confirmatory findings to support hypotheses about moderators and exploratory findings to inform future research. These recommendations are discussed in reference to previous recommendations for evaluating and reporting moderator studies

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security

Shape-induced force fields in optical trapping

Advances in optical tweezers, coupled with the proliferation of two-photon polymerization systems, mean that it is now becoming routine to fabricate and trap non-spherical particles. The shaping of both light beams and particles allows fine control over the flow of momentum from the optical to mechanical regimes. However, understanding and predicting the behaviour of such systems is highly complex in comparison with the traditional optically trapped microsphere. In this Article, we present a conceptually new and simple approach based on the nature of the optical force density. We illustrate the method through the design and fabrication of a shaped particle capable of acting as a passive force clamp, and we demonstrate its use as an optically trapped probe for imaging surface topography. Further applications of the design rules highlighted here may lead to new sensors for probing biomolecule mechanics, as well as to the development of optically actuated micromachines

Quantifying vertical mixing in estuaries

© 2008 The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Fluid Mechanics 8 (2008): 495-509, doi:10.1007/s10652-008-9107-2.Estuarine turbulence is notable in that both the dissipation rate and the buoyancy frequency extend to much higher values than in other natural environments. The high dissipation rates lead to a distinct inertial subrange in the velocity and scalar spectra, which can be exploited for quantifying the turbulence quantities. However, high buoyancy frequencies lead to small Ozmidov scales, which require high sampling rates and small spatial aperture to resolve the turbulent fluxes. A set of observations in a highly stratified estuary demonstrate the effectiveness of a vessel-mounted turbulence array for resolving turbulent processes, and for relating the turbulence to the forcing by the Reynolds-averaged flow. The observations focus on the ebb, when most of the buoyancy flux occurs. Three stages of mixing are observed: (1) intermittent and localized but intense shear instability during the early ebb; (2) continuous and relatively homogeneous shear-induced mixing during the mid-ebb, and weakly stratified, boundary-layer mixing during the late ebb. The mixing efficiency as quantified by the flux Richardson number Rf was frequently observed to be higher than the canonical value of 0.15 from Osborn (J Phys Oceanogr 10:83–89, 1980). The high efficiency may be linked to the temporal–spatial evolution of shear instabilities.The funding for this research was obtained from ONR Grant N00014-06-1-0292 and NSF Grant OCE-0729547

Storage of lyophilized cultures of Lactobacillus bulgaricus under different relative humidities and atmospheres

The viability of lyophilized cultures of Lactobacillus bulgaricus in skim milk, during storage at different temperatures, relative humidities, and atmospheres was investigated. Survival was greatest at 11% relative humidity and at 5°C. Indirect and direct evidence is presented supporting the hypothesis that membrane damage occurs during storage. Experiments on the lipid composition of the cell membrane demonstrate that changes occur with time that are probably the result of oxidation. A study on the lipid composition of the cell membrane by gas chromatography showed that the unsaturated/saturated fatty acid index changes with time during storage

When One Size Does Not Fit All: A Simple Statistical Method to Deal with Across-Individual Variations of Effects

In science, it is a common experience to discover that although the investigated effect is very clear in some individuals, statistical tests are not significant because the effect is null or even opposite in other individuals. Indeed, t-tests, Anovas and linear regressions compare the average effect with respect to its inter-individual variability, so that they can fail to evidence a factor that has a high effect in many individuals (with respect to the intra-individual variability). In such paradoxical situations, statistical tools are at odds with the researcher’s aim to uncover any factor that affects individual behavior, and not only those with stereotypical effects. In order to go beyond the reductive and sometimes illusory description of the average behavior, we propose a simple statistical method: applying a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to assess whether the distribution of p-values provided by individual tests is significantly biased towards zero. Using Monte-Carlo studies, we assess the power of this two-step procedure with respect to RM Anova and multilevel mixed-effect analyses, and probe its robustness when individual data violate the assumption of normality and homoscedasticity. We find that the method is powerful and robust even with small sample sizes for which multilevel methods reach their limits. In contrast to existing methods for combining p-values, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test has unique resistance to outlier individuals: it cannot yield significance based on a high effect in one or two exceptional individuals, which allows drawing valid population inferences. The simplicity and ease of use of our method facilitates the identification of factors that would otherwise be overlooked because they affect individual behavior in significant but variable ways, and its power and reliability with small sample sizes (<30–50 individuals) suggest it as a tool of choice in exploratory studies

Clinicopathologic characteristics and prognostic factors of ovarian fibrosarcoma: the results of a multi-center retrospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ovarian fibrosarcomas are very rare tumors, and therefore, few case studies have evaluated the prognostic factors of this disease. To our knowledge, this study represents the largest study to evaluate the clinical and pathologic factors associated with ovarian fibrosarcoma patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Thirty-one cases of ovarian fibrosarcoma were retrospectively reviewed, which included medical records for eight patients, and 23 published case reports from 1995 through 2009. Patient treatment regimens included total hysterectomy with bilateral adnexectomy and an omentectomy (BAO) (n = 9), oophorectomy (OR) (n = 8), chemotherapy (CT) (n = 1), BAO followed by chemotherapy (BAO+CT) (n = 11), BAO followed by radiotherapy (BAO+RT) (n = 1), and oophorectomy followed by radiotherapy (OR + RT) (n = 1).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The patients of this cohort were staged according to the guidelines of the Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO), with 15, 6, 9, and 1 stage I-IV cases identified, respectively. Mitotic count values were also evaluated from 10 high-power fields (HPFs), and 3 cases had an average mitotic count < 4, 18 cases were between 4 and 10, and 10 cases had an average mitotic count value ≥ 10. The Ki-67 (MIB-1) proliferation index values were grouped according to values that as follows: < 10% (n = 5), between 10% and 50% (n = 9), and ≥ 50% (n = 5). Positive expression of vimentin (100%, 22/22) and negative expression of CD117 (0%, 5/5) were also detected. Moreover, expression of smooth muscle actin (2/18), desmin (1/13), epithelial membrane antigen (0/11), S-100 (1/19), CD99 (0/6), CD34 (1/5), α-inhibin (7/15), estrogen receptor (1/6), and progesterone receptor (1/6) were reported for subsets of the cases examined. After a median follow-up period of 14 months (range, 2-120), the 2-year overall survival rates (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates for all patients were 55.9% and 45.4%, respectively. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis of survival showed that FIGO stage (<it>P </it>= 0.007) and treatment (<it>P </it>= 0.008) were predictive of poor prognosis. Furthermore, patients with stage I tumors that received BAO+CT were associated with a better prognosis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Mitotic activity, and cells positive for Ki-67 were identified as important factors in the diagnosis of ovarian fibrosarcoma. Furthermore, FIGO stage and treatment modalities have the potential to be prognostic factors of survival, with BAO followed by adjuvant chemotherapy associated with an improved treatment outcome.</p

Fuel Conditions Associated with Native and Exotic Grasses in a Subtropical Dry Forest in Puerto Rico

Exotic grasses capable of increasing frequency and intensity of anthropogenic fire have invaded subtropical and tropical dry forests worldwide. Since many dry forest trees are susceptible to fire, this can result in decline of native species and loss of forest cover. While the contribution of exotic grasses to altered fire regimes has been well documented, the role of native grasses in contributing to fuel loads in dry forest has received little attention. We assessed differences in fuel conditions among native and exotic grasses within a subtropical dry forest preserve in Puerto Rico. We quantified fine fuel loads, fuel continuity, and seasonal changes in percent dead grass among the following grass patch types: (1) native grass with no known history of recent fire, (2) exotic grass that had burned once (single burn), and (3) exotic grass that burns frequently. Sampling was conducted during one wet season (August to October 2008) and again in the following dry season (February to March 2009). Overall, fine fuel loading was highest in native grass, but this was due to woody fuels rather than grass fuels. Percent of dead grass fuels increased with the transition from wet to dry season, and this increase was more pronounced for exotic grasses. Fuel continuity was highest in frequently burned exotic grass. Differences in grass phenology and fuel continuity may contribute to differences in fire frequency among native and exotic grass patches. Fuel management focused on prescribed fire should be used in conjunction with restoration of tree canopy to reduce fuels and limit development of a grass-fire cycle