Estimation of conditional laws given an extreme component

Let $(X,Y)$ be a bivariate random vector. The estimation of a probability of the form $P(Y\leq y \mid X >t)$ is challenging when $t$ is large, and a fruitful approach consists in studying, if it exists, the limiting conditional distribution of the random vector $(X,Y)$, suitably normalized, given that $X$ is large. There already exists a wide literature on bivariate models for which this limiting distribution exists. In this paper, a statistical analysis of this problem is done. Estimators of the limiting distribution (which is assumed to exist) and the normalizing functions are provided, as well as an estimator of the conditional quantile function when the conditioning event is extreme. Consistency of the estimators is proved and a functional central limit theorem for the estimator of the limiting distribution is obtained. The small sample behavior of the estimator of the conditional quantile function is illustrated through simulations.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figur

Immunohistochemical evaluation of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 and estrogen and progesterone receptors in breast carcinoma in Jordan

INTRODUCTION: Although breast carcinoma (BC) is the most common malignancy affecting Jordanian females and the affected population in Jordan is younger than that in the West, no information is available on its biological characteristics. Our aims in this study are to evaluate the expression of estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) and Her-2/neu overexpression in BC in Jordan, and to compare the expression of these with other prognostic parameters for BC such as histological type, histological grade, tumor size, patients' age, and number of lymph node metastases. METHOD: This is a retrospective study conducted in the Department of Pathology at Jordan University of Science and Technology. A confirmed 91 cases of BC diagnosed in the period 1995 to 1998 were reviewed and graded. We used immunohistochemistry to evaluate the expression of ER, PR, and Her-2. Immunohistochemical findings were correlated with age, tumor size, grade and axillary lymph node status. RESULTS: Her-2 was overexpressed in 24% of the cases. The mean age of Her-2 positive cases was 42 years as opposed to 53 years among Her-2 negative cases (p = 0.0001). Her-2 expression was inversely related to ER and PR expression. Her-2 positive tumors tended to be larger than Her-2 negative tumors with 35% overexpression among T3 tumors as opposed to 22% among T2 tumors (p = 0.13). Her-2 positive cases tended to have higher rates of axillary metastases, but this did not reach statistical significance. ER and PR positive cases were seen in older patients with smaller tumor sizes. CONCLUSION: Her-2 overexpression was seen in 24% of BC affecting Jordanian females. Her-2 overexpression was associated with young age at presentation, larger tumor size, and was inversely related to ER and PR expression. One-fifth of the carcinomas were Her-2 positive and ER negative. This group appears to represent an aggressive form of BC presenting at a young age with large primary tumors and a high rate of four or more axillary lymph node metastases

Excitations of incoherent spin-waves due to spin-transfer torque

As predicted by Slonczewski and Berger, the possibility of exciting microwave oscillations in a nanomagnet by a spin-polarized current has been recently demonstrated. This observation opens very important perspectives of applications in RF components. However, some unresolved inconsistencies are found when interpreting the magnetization dynamics results within the coherent spin-torque model (CSM). In some cases, the telegraph noise caused by spin-currents could not be described quantitatively by the CSM. This led to controversies about the need of an effective magnetic temperature model (ETM). Here we interpret the experimental results of Kiselev et al. [Nature 425, 380 (2003)] using micromagnetic simulations. We point out the key role played by incoherent spin-waves excitation due to spin-transfer effects. The incoherence is caused by the spatial inhomogeneities of the local fields, generating a distribution of local precession frequencies. It results in telegraph noise at zero temperature associated with transitions between attraction wells in phase space.Comment: Nature Materials advance online publication, 7 November 200

Cucumber mosaic virus and its 2b RNA silencing suppressor modify plant-aphid interactions in tobacco

The cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) 2b protein not only inhibits anti-viral RNA silencing but also quenches transcriptional responses of plant genes to jasmonic acid, a key signalling molecule in defence against insects. This suggested that it might affect interactions between infected plants and aphids, insects that transmit CMV. We found that infection of tobacco with a 2b gene deletion mutant (CMVD2b) induced strong resistance to aphids (Myzus persicae) while CMV infection fostered aphid survival. Using electrical penetration graph methodology we found that higher proportions of aphids showed sustained phloem ingestion on CMV-infected plants than on CMVD2b-infected or mock-inoculated plants although this did not increase the rate of growth of individual aphids. This indicates that while CMV infection or certain viral gene products might elicit aphid resistance, the 2b protein normally counteracts this during a wild-type CMV infection. Our findings suggest that the 2b protein could indirectly affect aphid-mediated virus transmission

Optimizing fluid management in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF): the emerging role of combined measurement of body hydration status and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels

The study tests the hypothesis that in patients admitted with acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF), achievement of adequate body hydration status with intensive medical therapy, modulated by combined bioelectrical vectorial impedance analysis (BIVA) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) measurement, may contribute to optimize the timing of patient’s discharge and to improve clinical outcomes. Three hundred patients admitted for ADHF underwent serial BIVA and BNP measurement. Therapy was titrated to reach a BNP value of <250 pg/ml, whenever possible. Patients were categorized as early responders (rapid BNP fall below 250 pg/ml); late responders (slow BNP fall below 250 pg/ml, after aggressive therapy); and non-responders (BNP persistently >250 pg/ml). Worsening of renal function (WRF) was evaluated during hospitalization. Death and rehospitalization were monitored with a 6-month follow-up. BNP value on discharge of ≤250 pg/ml led to a 25% event rate within 6 months (Group A: 17.4%; Group B: 21%, Chi2; n.s.), whereas a value >250 pg/ml (Group C) was associated with a far higher percentage (37%). At discharge, body hydration was 73.8 ± 3.2% in the total population and 73.2 ± 2.1, 73.5 ± 2.8, 74.1 ± 3.6% in the three groups, respectively. WRF was observed in 22.3% of the total. WRF occurred in 22% in Group A, 32% in Group B, and 20% in Group C (P = n.s.). Our study confirms the hypothesis that combined BNP/BIVA sequential measurements help to achieve adequate fluid balance status in patients with ADHF and can be used to drive a “tailored therapy,” allowing clinicians to identify high-risk patients and possibly to reduce the incidence of complications secondary to fluid management strategies

Lipid vesicles trigger α-synuclein aggregation by stimulating primary nucleation.

α-Synuclein (α-syn) is a 140-residue intrinsically disordered protein that is involved in neuronal and synaptic vesicle plasticity, but its aggregation to form amyloid fibrils is the hallmark of Parkinson's disease (PD). The interaction between α-syn and lipid surfaces is believed to be a key feature for mediation of its normal function, but under other circumstances it is able to modulate amyloid fibril formation. Using a combination of experimental and theoretical approaches, we identify the mechanism through which facile aggregation of α-syn is induced under conditions where it binds a lipid bilayer, and we show that the rate of primary nucleation can be enhanced by three orders of magnitude or more under such conditions. These results reveal the key role that membrane interactions can have in triggering conversion of α-syn from its soluble state to the aggregated state that is associated with neurodegeneration and to its associated disease states.This work was supported by the UK BBSRC and the Wellcome Trust (CMD, TPJK, MV), the Frances and Augustus Newman Foundation (TPJK), Magdalene College, Cambridge (AKB) , St John’s College, Cambridge (TCTM), the Cambridge Home and EU Scholarship Scheme (GM), Elan Pharmaceuticals (CMD, TPJK, MV, CG) and the Leverhulme Trust (AKB).This is the accepted manuscript. The final version is available from NPG at http://www.nature.com/nchembio/journal/v11/n3/abs/nchembio.1750.htm

Within-group behavioral variation promotes biased task performance and the emergence of a defensive caste in a social spider

The social spider Anelosimus studiosus exhibits a behavioral polymorphism where colony members express either a passive, tolerant behavioral tendency (social) or an aggressive, intolerant behavioral tendency (asocial). Here we test whether asocial individuals act as colony defenders by deflecting the suite of foreign (i.e., heterospecific) spider species that commonly exploit multi-female colonies. We (1) determined whether the phenotypic composition of colonies is associated with foreign spider abundance, (2) tested whether heterospecific spider abundance and diversity affect colony survival in the field, and (3) performed staged encounters between groups of A. studiosus and their colony-level predator Agelenopsis emertoni (A. emertoni)to determine whether asocial females exhibit more defensive behavior. We found that larger colonies harbor more foreign spiders, and the number of asocial colony members was negatively associated with foreign spider abundance. Additionally, colony persistence was negatively associated with the abundance and diversity of foreign spiders within colonies. In encounters with a colony-level predator, asocial females were more likely to exhibit escalatory behavior, and this might explain the negative association between the frequency of asocial females and the presence of foreign spider associates. Together, our results indicate that foreign spiders are detrimental to colony survival, and that asocial females play a defensive role in multi-female colonies

Dynamical Mean-Field Theory

The dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) is a widely applicable approximation scheme for the investigation of correlated quantum many-particle systems on a lattice, e.g., electrons in solids and cold atoms in optical lattices. In particular, the combination of the DMFT with conventional methods for the calculation of electronic band structures has led to a powerful numerical approach which allows one to explore the properties of correlated materials. In this introductory article we discuss the foundations of the DMFT, derive the underlying self-consistency equations, and present several applications which have provided important insights into the properties of correlated matter.Comment: Chapter in "Theoretical Methods for Strongly Correlated Systems", edited by A. Avella and F. Mancini, Springer (2011), 31 pages, 5 figure

Higher incidence of premenopausal breast cancer in less developed countries; myth or truth?

Background: Fundamental etiologic differences have been suggested to cause earlier onset of breast cancer in less developed countries (LDCs) than in more developed countries (MDCs). We explored this hypothesis using world-wide breast cancer incidence data. Methods: We compared international age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) of pre- (<50 years) and postmenopausal (≥50 years) breast cancers as well as temporal trends in ASRs of pre-and postmenopausal breast cancer among selected countries during 1975–2008. We used joinpoint log-linear regression analysis to estimate annual percent changes (APC) for premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer in the northern Europe and in Black and White women population in the US. Results: Premenopausal breast cancers comprised a substantially higher proportion of all incident breast cancers in LDCs (average 47.3%) compared to MDCs (average 18.5%). However, the ASR of premenopausal breast cancer was consistently higher in MDCs (29.4/100,000) than LDCs (12.8/100,000). The ASR of postmenopausal cancer was about five-fold higher in the MDCs (307.6/100,000) than the LDCs (65.4/100,000). The APC of breast cancer in Denmark was substantially higher in postmenopausal (1.33%) than premenopausal cancer (0.98%). Higher incidence of breast cancer among the white than black women in the US was pertained only to the postmenopausal cancer. Conclusion: The substantial and consistent lower age-specific incidence of breast cancer in LDCs than in MDCs contradicts the theory of earlier onset. Demographic differences with fewer old women in LDCs and lower prevalence of risk factors of postmenopausal cancer are the most likely explanation to the lower mean age at diagnosis in these countries