Effective use of excess capacity for low carbon urban transport futures

A reduction in emissions from transport is essential and requires a system wide approach, inclusive of technological and behavioural changes. Defining capacity in urban transport as the space through which transport demand can be met, the research explores where there is excess capacity in the system and how this could be used to reduce emissions. Capacity may be physical capacity in the roadspace or seats within vehicles, or temporal capacity, where there are fluctuations in the use of the system, such as peak and off-peak flows. This is complementary to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s definition of urban transport energy efficiency as maximising travel activity whilst minimising energy consumption through a range of approaches and techniques. This paper proposes that interventions designed to enable behavioural change could reduce emissions by changing the way that the urban transport system is used. Drawing on the literature, this work demonstrates how effective use of excess capacity might be facilitated through measures such as smarter choices programmes and the application of intelligent transport systems (ITS). Case studies are provided as examples of ways that urban transport infrastructure can be adapted for more efficient use, including shared space projects and the ‘complete streets’ policy in New York City. The paper concludes by presenting the potential impacts of effective use of excess capacity for reducing urban transport emissions as demonstrated through the case studies

Quantifying measures to limit wind driven resuspension of sediments for improvement of the ecological quality in some shallow Dutch lakes

Although phosphorus loadings are considered the main pressure for most shallow lakes, wind-driven resuspension can cause additional problems for these aquatic ecosystems. We quantified the potential effectiveness of measures to reduce the contribution of resuspended sediments, resulting from wind action, to the overall light attenuation for three comparable shallow peat lakes with poor ecological status in the Netherlands: Loosdrecht, Nieuwkoop, and Reeuwijk (1.8–2.7 m depth, 1.6–2.5 km fetch). These measures are: 1. wave reducing barriers, 2. water level fluctuations, 3. capping of the sediment with sand, and 4. combinations of above. Critical shear stress of the sediments for resuspension (Vcrit), size distribution, and optical properties of the suspended material were quantified in the field (June 2009) and laboratory. Water quality monitoring data (2002–2009) showed that light attenuation by organic suspended matter in all lakes is high. Spatial modeling of the impact of these measures showed that in Lake Loosdrecht limiting wave action can have significant effects (reductions from 6% exceedance to 2% exceedance of Vcrit), whereas in Lake Nieuwkoop and Lake Reeuwijk this is less effective. The depth distribution and shape of Lake Nieuwkoop and Lake Reeuwijk limit the role of wind-driven resuspension in the total suspended matter concentration. Although the lakes are similar in general appearance (origin, size, and depth range) measures suitable to improve their ecological status differ. This calls for care when defining the programme of measures to improve the ecological status of a specific lake based on experience from other lakes.

The impact of an intervention to introduce malaria rapid diagnostic tests on fever case management in a high transmission setting in Uganda: A mixed-methods cluster-randomized trial (PRIME).

Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria (mRDTs) have been scaled-up widely across Africa. The PRIME study evaluated an intervention aiming to improve fever case management using mRDTs at public health centers in Uganda. A cluster-randomized trial was conducted from 2010-13 in Tororo, a high malaria transmission setting. Twenty public health centers were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to intervention or control. The intervention included training in health center management, fever case management with mRDTs, and patient-centered services; plus provision of mRDTs and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) when stocks ran low. Three rounds of Interviews were conducted with caregivers of children under five years of age as they exited health centers (N = 1400); reference mRDTs were done in children with fever (N = 1336). Health worker perspectives on mRDTs were elicited through semi-structured questionnaires (N = 49) and in-depth interviews (N = 10). The primary outcome was inappropriate treatment of malaria, defined as the proportion of febrile children who were not treated according to guidelines based on the reference mRDT. There was no difference in inappropriate treatment of malaria between the intervention and control arms (24.0% versus 29.7%, adjusted risk ratio 0.81 95\% CI: 0.56, 1.17 p = 0.24). Most children (76.0\%) tested positive by reference mRDT, but many were not prescribed AL (22.5\% intervention versus 25.9\% control, p = 0.53). Inappropriate treatment of children testing negative by reference mRDT with AL was also common (31.3\% invention vs 42.4\% control, p = 0.29). Health workers appreciated mRDTs but felt that integrating testing into practice was challenging given constraints on time and infrastructure. The PRIME intervention did not have the desired impact on inappropriate treatment of malaria for children under five. In this high transmission setting, use of mRDTs did not lead to the reductions in antimalarial prescribing seen elsewhere. Broader investment in health systems, including infrastructure and staffing, will be required to improve fever case management

Arterial elasticity imaging: comparison of finite-element analysis models with high-resolution ultrasound speckle tracking

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The nonlinear mechanical properties of internal organs and tissues may be measured with unparalleled precision using ultrasound imaging with phase-sensitive speckle tracking. The many potential applications of this important noninvasive diagnostic approach include measurement of arterial stiffness, which is associated with numerous major disease processes. The accuracy of previous ultrasound measurements of arterial stiffness and vascular elasticity has been limited by the relatively low strain of nonlinear structures under normal physiologic pressure and the measurement assumption that the effect of the surrounding tissue modulus might be ignored in both physiologic and pressure equalized conditions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study performed high-resolution ultrasound imaging of the brachial artery in a healthy adult subject under normal physiologic pressure and the use of external pressure (pressure equalization) to increase strain. These ultrasound results were compared to measurements of arterial strain as determined by finite-element analysis models with and without a surrounding tissue, which was represented by homogenous material with fixed elastic modulus.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Use of the pressure equalization technique during imaging resulted in average strain values of 26% and 18% at the top and sides, respectively, compared to 5% and 2%, at the top and sides, respectively, under physiologic pressure. In the artery model that included surrounding tissue, strain was 19% and 16% under pressure equalization versus 9% and 13% at the top and sides, respectively, under physiologic pressure. The model without surrounding tissue had slightly higher levels of strain under physiologic pressure compared to the other model, but the resulting strain values under pressure equalization were > 60% and did not correspond to experimental values.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Since pressure equalization may increase the dynamic range of strain imaging, the effect of the surrounding tissue on strain should be incorporated into models of arterial strain, particularly when the pressure equalization technique is used.</p

Alteration of Forest Structure Modifies the Distribution of Scale Insect, Stigmacoccus garmilleri, in Mexican Tropical Montane Cloud Forests

Stigmacoccus garmilleri Foldi (Hemiptera: Margarodidae) is an ecologically important honeydew-producing scale insect associated with oak trees (Quercus spp.) in highland forests of Veracruz, Mexico. The honeydew exudates of S. garmilleri serve as a significant nutrient source to many species of birds, insects, and sooty molds. Oak trees found in the forest interior, forest edge, and those scattered in pasture areas support scale insect colonies, though the pattern of insect infestations on trees within these varying landscape types has not been elucidated. This study aims to describe the distribution of scale insect infestation and any distinctions in honeydew production based on tree location. Scale insect density, honeydew volume, and sugar concentration were surveyed throughout a continuous landscape that included both patches of forest and scattered pasture trees. In addition, the anal filament through which the honeydew drop is secreted was also measured and was experimentally removed to test and measure regrowth. Scale insect densities on tree trunks were greatest on pasture trees, while intermediate densities were found on trees at the forest edge, and low densities on interior forest trees, suggesting that trees in disturbed areas are more susceptible to scale insect infestation. Trees with small diameters at breast height had significantly higher insect densities than trees with medium to large diameters. Trunk aspect (North, South, East, and West) was not a significant determinant of scale insect density. In forested areas higher densities of scale insects were found at three meters height in comparison to lower heights. Sugar concentrations and drop volumes of honeydew in forest and pasture areas were not significantly different. However, scale-insect anal tubes/filaments were significantly longer in pasture than they were in forests. Sugar concentrations of honeydew appeared to be positively correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with relative humidity. Experiments indicated that anal filaments could grow approximately 4 mm every 24 hours, and average tube growth was significantly faster in pasture than in forest, suggesting that there may be a physiological effect on the insect due to landscape disturbance. The results obtained in this study describe the increases in scale insect infestation of trees with forest disturbance. The effect of these increased scale insect densities on the host tree physiology is still to be resolved

Measurement of Creep Deformation across Welds in 316H Stainless Steel Using Digital Image Correlation

Spatially resolved measurement of creep deformation across weldments at high temperature cannot be achieved using standard extensometry approaches. In this investigation, a Digital Image Correlation (DIC) based system has been developed for long-term high-temperature creep strain measurement in order to characterise the material deformation behaviour of separate regions of a multi-pass weld. The optical system was sufficiently stable to allow a sequence of photographs to be taken suitable for DIC analysis of creep specimens tested at a temperature of 545 °C for over 2000 h. The images were analysed to produce local creep deformation curves from two cross-weld samples cut from contrasting regions of a multi-pass V-groove weld joining thick-section AISI Type 316H austenitic stainless steel. It is shown that for this weld, the root pass is the weakest region of the structure in creep, most likely due to the large number of thermal cycles it has experienced during the fabrication process. The DIC based measurement method offers improved spatial resolution over conventional methods and greatly reduces the amount of material required for creep characterisation of weldments

A farm-level study of risk factors associated with the colonization of broiler flocks with Campylobacter spp. in Iceland, 2001 – 2004

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Following increased rates of human campylobacteriosis in the late 1990's, and their apparent association with increased consumption of fresh chicken meat, a longitudinal study was conducted in Iceland to identify the means to decrease the frequency of broiler flock colonization with <it>Campylobacter</it>. Our objective in this study was to identify risk factors for flock colonization acting at the broiler farm level.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between May 2001 and September 2004, pooled caecal samples were obtained from 1,425 flocks at slaughter and cultured for <it>Campylobacter</it>. Due to the strong seasonal variation in flock prevalence, analyses were restricted to a subset of 792 flocks raised during the four summer seasons. Flock results were collapsed to the farm level, such that the number of positive flocks and the total number of flocks raised were summed for each farm. Logistic regression models were fitted to the data using automated and manual selection methods. Variables of interest included manure management, water source and treatment, other poultry/livestock on farm, and farm size and management.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The 792 flocks raised during the summer seasons originated from 83 houses on 33 farms, and of these, 217 (27.4%) tested positive. The median number of flocks per farm was 14, and the median number of positive flocks per farm was three. Three farms did not have any positive flocks. In general, factors associated with an increased risk of <it>Campylobacter </it>were increasing median flock size on the farm (p ≤ 0.001), spreading manure on the farm (p = 0.004 to 0.035), and increasing the number of broiler houses on the farm (p = 0.008 to 0.038). Protective factors included the use of official (municipal) (p = 0.004 to 0.051) or official treated (p = 0.006 to 0.032) water compared to the use of non-official untreated water, storing manure on the farm (p = 0.025 to 0.029), and the presence of other domestic livestock on the farm (p = 0.004 to 0.028).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Limiting the average flock size, and limiting the number of houses built on new farms, are interventions that require investigation. Water may play a role in the transmission of <it>Campylobacter</it>, therefore the use of official water, and potentially, treating non-official water may reduce the risk of colonization. Manure management practices deserve further attention.</p

Catastrophic Floods May Pave the Way for Increased Genetic Diversity in Endemic Artesian Spring Snail Populations

The role of disturbance in the promotion of biological heterogeneity is widely recognised and occurs at a variety of ecological and evolutionary scales. However, within species, the impact of disturbances that decimate populations are neither predicted nor known to result in conditions that promote genetic diversity. Directly examining the population genetic consequences of catastrophic disturbances however, is rarely possible, as it requires both longitudinal genetic data sets and serendipitous timing. Our long-term study of the endemic aquatic invertebrates of the artesian spring ecosystem of arid central Australia has presented such an opportunity. Here we show a catastrophic flood event, which caused a near total population crash in an aquatic snail species (Fonscochlea accepta) endemic to this ecosystem, may have led to enhanced levels of within species genetic diversity. Analyses of individuals sampled and genotyped from the same springs sampled both pre (1988–1990) and post (1995, 2002–2006) a devastating flood event in 1992, revealed significantly higher allelic richness, reduced temporal population structuring and greater effective population sizes in nearly all post flood populations. Our results suggest that the response of individual species to disturbance and severe population bottlenecks is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and may depend on both their ecology (whether they are resilient or resistant to disturbance) and the stability of the environmental conditions (i.e. frequency and intensity of disturbances) in which they have evolved

Estimating the NIH Efficient Frontier

Background: The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is among the world’s largest investors in biomedical research, with a mandate to: “…lengthen life, and reduce the burdens of illness and disability.” Its funding decisions have been criticized as insufficiently focused on disease burden. We hypothesize that modern portfolio theory can create a closer link between basic research and outcome, and offer insight into basic-science related improvements in public health. We propose portfolio theory as a systematic framework for making biomedical funding allocation decisions–one that is directly tied to the risk/reward trade-off of burden-of-disease outcomes. Methods and Findings: Using data from 1965 to 2007, we provide estimates of the NIH “efficient frontier”, the set of funding allocations across 7 groups of disease-oriented NIH institutes that yield the greatest expected return on investment for a given level of risk, where return on investment is measured by subsequent impact on U.S. years of life lost (YLL). The results suggest that NIH may be actively managing its research risk, given that the volatility of its current allocation is 17% less than that of an equal-allocation portfolio with similar expected returns. The estimated efficient frontier suggests that further improvements in expected return (89% to 119% vs. current) or reduction in risk (22% to 35% vs. current) are available holding risk or expected return, respectively, constant, and that 28% to 89% greater decrease in average years-of-life-lost per unit risk may be achievable. However, these results also reflect the imprecision of YLL as a measure of disease burden, the noisy statistical link between basic research and YLL, and other known limitations of portfolio theory itself. Conclusions: Our analysis is intended to serve as a proof-of-concept and starting point for applying quantitative methods to allocating biomedical research funding that are objective, systematic, transparent, repeatable, and expressly designed to reduce the burden of disease. By approaching funding decisions in a more analytical fashion, it may be possible to improve their ultimate outcomes while reducing unintended consequences