Obesity Indexes and Total Mortality among Elderly Subjects at High Cardiovascular Risk: The PREDIMED Study

BackgroundDifferent indexes of regional adiposity have been proposed for identifying persons at higher risk of death. Studies specifically assessing these indexes in large cohorts are scarce. It would also be interesting to know whether a dietary intervention may counterbalance the adverse effects of adiposity on mortality.MethodsWe assessed the association of four different anthropometric indexes (waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI) and height) with all-cause mortality in 7447 participants at high cardiovascular risk from the PREDIMED trial. Forty three percent of them were men (55 to 80 years) and 57% were women (60 to 80 years). All of them were initially free of cardiovascular disease. The recruitment took place in 11 recruiting centers between 2003 and 2009.ResultsAfter adjusting for age, sex, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, intervention group, family history of coronary heart disease, and leisure-time physical activity, WC and WHtR were found to be directly associated with a higher mortality after 4.8 years median follow-up. The multivariable-adjusted HRs for mortality of WHtR (cut-off points: 0.60, 0.65, 0.70) were 1.02 (0.78–1.34), 1.30 (0.97–1.75) and 1.55 (1.06–2.26). When we used WC (cut-off points: 100, 105 and 110 cm), the multivariable adjusted Hazard Ratios (HRs) for mortality were 1.18 (0.88–1.59), 1.02 (0.74–1.41) and 1.57 (1.19–2.08). In all analyses, BMI exhibited weaker associations with mortality than WC or WHtR. The direct association between WHtR and overall mortality was consistent within each of the three intervention arms of the trial.ConclusionsOur study adds further support to a stronger association of abdominal obesity than BMI with total mortality among elderly subjects at high risk of cardiovascular disease. We did not find evidence to support that the PREDIMED intervention was able to counterbalance the harmful effects of increased adiposity on total mortality.Trial RegistrationControlled-Trials.com ISRCTN3573963

Lung Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Associated with Ambient Air Pollution and Cigarette Smoke: Shape of the Exposure–Response Relationships

Background: Lung cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risks increase with smoking, secondhand smoke (SHS), and exposure to fine particulate matter < 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) from ambient air pollution. Recent research indicates that the exposure–response relationship for CVD is nonlinear, with a steep increase in risk at low exposures and flattening out at higher exposures. Comparable estimates of the exposure–response relationship for lung cancer are required for disease burden estimates and related public health policy assessments

Prenatal Exposure to Perfluoroalkyl Substances and Body Fatness in Girls

Background: Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are used in surface coatings that resist stains, grease, and water.Methods: The association between in utero PFAS exposure and girls' body fatness at age 9 was analyzed in The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (UK). Maternal serum [median 15 weeks: interquartile range (IQR) 10 and 28 weeks of gestation] was analyzed for perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), and perfluorononanoate (PFNA). Body composition was measured by dual X-ray emission absorptiometry, and percent total body fat (%BF) was calculated. Associations between PFASs and body fatness were modeled by multivariable linear regression.Results: Among 359 girls, median (IQR) %BF was 27.5 (IQR 21.7–34.6). Median (IQR) concentrations (all ng/mL) were 3.7 (2.9–4.8) for PFOA, 19.8 (15.0–25.3) for PFOS, 1.6 (1.3–2.2) for PFHxS, and 0.5 (0.4–0.7) for PFNA. Maternal PFAS concentrations were not significantly associated with daughters' total %BF overall. Mothers' educational status modified associations for PFOA and PFOS with %BF (P-interactions: 0.005 and 0.02, respectively). %BF was higher [1.4%; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.3 to 2.5] for each one unit (ng/mL) higher PFOA among girls with mothers in the middle education group, but lower (−0.6%; 95% CI: −1.12 to −0.04) for the corresponding comparison among girls with mothers with the highest education. %BF was lower (−0.2%; 95% CI: −0.3 to −0.1) for each one unit higher PFOS among girls with the most educated mothers.Conclusions: Prenatal exposure to PFOA and PFOS was associated with girls' %BF within some strata of maternal education status. PFHxS and PFNA were not associated with %BF

A simple method for estimating relative risk using logistic regression

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Odds ratios (OR) significantly overestimate associations between risk factors and common outcomes. The estimation of relative risks (RR) or prevalence ratios (PR) has represented a statistical challenge in multivariate analysis and, furthermore, some researchers do not have access to the available methods. Objective: To propose and evaluate a new method for estimating RR and PR by logistic regression.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A provisional database was designed in which events were duplicated but identified as non-events. After, a logistic regression was performed and effect measures were calculated, which were considered RR estimations. This method was compared with binomial regression, Cox regression with robust variance and ordinary logistic regression in analyses with three outcomes of different frequencies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>ORs estimated by ordinary logistic regression progressively overestimated RRs as the outcome frequency increased. RRs estimated by Cox regression and the method proposed in this article were similar to those estimated by binomial regression for every outcome. However, confidence intervals were wider with the proposed method.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This simple tool could be useful for calculating the effect of risk factors and the impact of health interventions in developing countries when other statistical strategies are not available.</p

Using observational data to estimate an upper bound on the reduction in cancer mortality due to periodic screening

BACKGROUND: Because randomized cancer screening trials are very expensive, observational cancer screening studies can play an important role in the early phases of screening evaluation. Periodic screening evaluation (PSE) is a methodology for estimating the reduction in population cancer mortality from data on subjects who receive regularly scheduled screens. Although PSE does not require assumptions about natural history of cancer it requires other assumptions, particularly progressive detection – the assumption that once a cancer is detected by a screening test, it will always be detected by the screening test. METHODS: We formulate a simple version of PSE and show that it leads to an upper bound on screening efficacy if the progressive detection assumption does not hold (and any effect of birth cohort is minimal) To determine if the upper bound is reasonable, for three randomized screening trials, we compared PSE estimates based only on screened subjects with PSE estimates based on all subjects. RESULTS: In the three randomized screening trials, PSE estimates based on screened subjects gave fairly close results to PSE estimates based on all subjects. CONCLUSION: PSE has promise for obtaining an upper bound on the reduction in population cancer mortality rates based on observational screening data. If the upper bound estimate is found to be small and any birth cohort effects are likely minimal, then a definitive randomized trial would not be warranted

Antidepressant-Warfarin Interaction and Associated Gastrointestinal Bleeding Risk in a Case-Control Study

Bleeding is the most common and worrisome adverse effect of warfarin therapy. One of the factors that might increase bleeding risk is initiation of interacting drugs that potentiate warfarin. We sought to evaluate whether initiation of an antidepressant increases the risk of hospitalization for gastrointestinal bleeding in warfarin users.Medicaid claims data (1999-2005) were used to perform an observational case-control study nested within person-time exposed to warfarin in those ≥18 years. In total, 430,455 warfarin users contributed 407,370 person-years of warfarin use. The incidence rate of hospitalization for GI bleeding among warfarin users was 4.48 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 4.42-4.55). Each gastrointestinal bleeding cases was matched to 50 controls based on index date and state. Warfarin users had an increased odds ratio of gastrointestinal bleeding upon initiation of citalopram (OR = 1.73 [95% CI, 1.25-2.38]), fluoxetine (OR = 1.63 [95% CI, 1.11-2.38]), paroxetine (OR = 1.64 [95% CI, 1.27-2.12]), amitriptyline (OR = 1.47 [95% CI, 1.02-2.11]). Also mirtazapine, which is not believed to interact with warfarin, increased the risk of GI bleeding (OR = 1.75 [95% CI, 1.30-2.35]).Warfarin users who initiated citalopram, fluoxetine, paroxetine, amitriptyline, or mirtazapine had an increased risk of hospitalization for gastrointestinal bleeding. However, the elevated risk with mirtazapine suggests that a drug-drug interaction may not have been responsible for all of the observed increased risk

The LLP risk model: an individual risk prediction model for lung cancer

Using a model-based approach, we estimated the probability that an individual, with a specified combination of risk factors, would develop lung cancer within a 5-year period

Chromosome 15q25 (CHRNA3-CHRNA5) Variation Impacts Indirectly on Lung Cancer Risk

Genetic variants at the 15q25 CHRNA5-CHRNA3 locus have been shown to influence lung cancer risk however there is controversy as to whether variants have a direct carcinogenic effect on lung cancer risk or impact indirectly through smoking behavior. We have performed a detailed analysis of the 15q25 risk variants rs12914385 and rs8042374 with smoking behavior and lung cancer risk in 4,343 lung cancer cases and 1,479 controls from the Genetic Lung Cancer Predisposition Study (GELCAPS). A strong association between rs12914385 and rs8042374, and lung cancer risk was shown, odds ratios (OR) were 1.44, (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29–1.62, P = 3.69×10−10) and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.18–1.55, P = 9.99×10−6) respectively. Each copy of risk alleles at rs12914385 and rs8042374 was associated with increased cigarette consumption of 1.0 and 0.9 cigarettes per day (CPD) (P = 5.18×10−5 and P = 5.65×10−3). These genetically determined modest differences in smoking behavior can be shown to be sufficient to account for the 15q25 association with lung cancer risk. To further verify the indirect effect of 15q25 on the risk, we restricted our analysis of lung cancer risk to never-smokers and conducted a meta-analysis of previously published studies of lung cancer risk in never-smokers. Never-smoker studies published in English were ascertained from PubMed stipulating - lung cancer, risk, genome-wide association, candidate genes. Our study and five previously published studies provided data on 2,405 never-smoker lung cancer cases and 7,622 controls. In the pooled analysis no association has been found between the 15q25 variation and lung cancer risk (OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.94–1.28). This study affirms the 15q25 association with smoking and is consistent with an indirect link between genotype and lung cancer risk

Association of prediagnostic vitamin D status with mortality among colorectal cancer patients differs by common, inherited vitamin D-binding protein isoforms

Lower prediagnostic circulating 25‐hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D)—considered the best marker of total vitamin D exposure—is associated with higher mortality risk among colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. However, it is unknown whether this association differs by the vitamin D‐binding protein (GC) isoform Gc2 (encoded by GC rs4588*C>A, Thr436Lys), which may substantially affect vitamin D metabolism and modify associations of 25(OH)D with colorectal neoplasm risk. Prediagnostic 25(OH)D‐mortality associations according to Gc2 isoform were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression among 1281 CRC cases (635 deaths, 483 from CRC) from two large prospective cohorts conducted in the United States (Cancer Prevention Study‐II) and Europe (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition). 25(OH)D measurements were calibrated to a single assay, season standardized, and categorized using Institute of Medicine recommendations (deficient [<30], insufficient [30 ‐ <50], sufficient [≥50 nmol/L]). In the pooled analysis, multivariable‐adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for CRC‐specific mortality associated with deficient relative to sufficient 25(OH)D concentrations were 2.24 (95% CI 1.44‐3.49) among cases with the Gc2 isoform, and 0.94 (95% CI 0.68‐1.22) among cases without Gc2 (P interaction = .0002). The corresponding HRs for all‐cause mortality were 1.80 (95% CI 1.24‐2.60) among those with Gc2, and 1.12 (95% CI 0.84‐1.51) among those without Gc2 (P interaction = .004). Our findings suggest that the association of prediagnostic vitamin D status with mortality among CRC patients may differ by functional GC isoforms, and patients who inherit the Gc2 isoform (GC rs4588*A) may particularly benefit from higher circulating 25(OH)D for improved CRC prognosis