Population seroprevalence of antibody to influenza A(H7N9) virus, Guangzhou, China

BACKGROUND: Since the identification in early 2013 of severe disease caused by influenza A(H7N9) virus infection, there have been few attempts to characterize the full severity profile of human infections. Our objective was to estimate the number and severity of H7N9 infections in Guangzhou, using a serological study. METHODS: We collected residual sera from patients of all ages admitted to a hospital in the city of Guangzhou in southern China in 2013 and 2014. We screened the sera using a haemagglutination inhibition assay against a pseudovirus containing the H7 and N9 of A/Anhui/1/2013(H7N9), and samples with a screening titer ≥10 were further tested by standard hemagglutination-inhibition and virus neutralization assays for influenza A(H7N9). We used a statistical model to interpret the information on antibody titers in the residual sera, assuming that the residual sera provided a representative picture of A(H7N9) infections in the general population, accounting for potential cross-reactions. RESULTS: We collected a total of 5360 residual sera from December 2013 to April 2014 and from October 2014 to December 2014, and found two specimens that tested positive for H7N9 antibody at haemagglutination inhibition titer ≥40 and a neutralization titer ≥40. Based on this, we estimated that 64,000 (95 % credibility interval: 7300, 190,000) human infections with influenza A(H7N9) virus occurred in Guangzhou in early 2014, with an infection-fatality risk of 3.6 deaths (95 % credibility interval: 0.47, 15) per 10,000 infections. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggested that the number of influenza A(H7N9) virus infections in Guangzhou substantially exceeded the number of laboratory-confirmed cases there, albeit with considerable imprecision. Our study was limited by the small number of positive specimens identified, and larger serologic studies would be valuable. Our analytic framework would be useful if larger serologic studies are done.published_or_final_versio

The effect of parental rearing conditions on offspring life history in Anopheles stephensi

Background The environmental conditions experienced by parents are increasingly recognized to impact the success of offspring. Little is known on the presence of such parental effects in Anopheles. If present, parental effects could influence mosquito breeding programmes, some malaria control measures and have epidemiological and evolutionary consequences. Methods The presence of parental effects on offspring emergence time, size, survival, blood meal size and fecundity in laboratory reared An. stephensi were tested. Results Parental rearing conditions did not influence the time taken for offspring to emerge, or their size or survival as adults. However, parental effects were influential in determining the fecundity of daughters. Counter-intuitively, daughters of parents reared in low food conditions produced larger egg clutches than daughters of parents reared in high food conditions. Offspring reared in low food conditions took larger blood meals if their parents had also experienced a low food environment. Conclusion So far as we are aware, this is the first evidence of parental effects on progeny in Anophele

The Cosmological Constant

This is a review of the physics and cosmology of the cosmological constant. Focusing on recent developments, I present a pedagogical overview of cosmology in the presence of a cosmological constant, observational constraints on its magnitude, and the physics of a small (and potentially nonzero) vacuum energy.Comment: 50 pages. Submitted to Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org/), December 199

Identifying patient preferences for communicating risk estimates: A descriptive pilot study

BACKGROUND: Patients increasingly seek more active involvement in health care decisions, but little is known about how to communicate complex risk information to patients. The objective of this study was to elicit patient preferences for the presentation and framing of complex risk information. METHOD: To accomplish this, eight focus group discussions and 15 one-on-one interviews were conducted, where women were presented with risk data in a variety of different graphical formats, metrics, and time horizons. Risk data were based on a hypothetical woman's risk for coronary heart disease, hip fracture, and breast cancer, with and without hormone replacement therapy. Participants' preferences were assessed using likert scales, ranking, and abstractions of focus group discussions. RESULTS: Forty peri- and postmenopausal women were recruited through hospital fliers (n = 25) and a community health fair (n = 15). Mean age was 51 years, 50% were non-Caucasian, and all had completed high school. Bar graphs were preferred by 83% of participants over line graphs, thermometer graphs, 100 representative faces, and survival curves. Lifetime risk estimates were preferred over 10 or 20-year horizons, and absolute risks were preferred over relative risks and number needed to treat. CONCLUSION: Although there are many different formats for presenting and framing risk information, simple bar charts depicting absolute lifetime risk were rated and ranked highest overall for patient preferences for format

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Soil Respiration in Tibetan Alpine Grasslands: Belowground Biomass and Soil Moisture, but Not Soil Temperature, Best Explain the Large-Scale Patterns

The Tibetan Plateau is an essential area to study the potential feedback effects of soils to climate change due to the rapid rise in its air temperature in the past several decades and the large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, particularly in the permafrost. Yet it is one of the most under-investigated regions in soil respiration (Rs) studies. Here, Rs rates were measured at 42 sites in alpine grasslands (including alpine steppes and meadows) along a transect across the Tibetan Plateau during the peak growing season of 2006 and 2007 in order to test whether: (1) belowground biomass (BGB) is most closely related to spatial variation in Rs due to high root biomass density, and (2) soil temperature significantly influences spatial pattern of Rs owing to metabolic limitation from the low temperature in cold, high-altitude ecosystems. The average daily mean Rs of the alpine grasslands at peak growing season was 3.92 µmol CO2 m−2 s−1, ranging from 0.39 to 12.88 µmol CO2 m−2 s−1, with average daily mean Rs of 2.01 and 5.49 µmol CO2 m−2 s−1 for steppes and meadows, respectively. By regression tree analysis, BGB, aboveground biomass (AGB), SOC, soil moisture (SM), and vegetation type were selected out of 15 variables examined, as the factors influencing large-scale variation in Rs. With a structural equation modelling approach, we found only BGB and SM had direct effects on Rs, while other factors indirectly affecting Rs through BGB or SM. Most (80%) of the variation in Rs could be attributed to the difference in BGB among sites. BGB and SM together accounted for the majority (82%) of spatial patterns of Rs. Our results only support the first hypothesis, suggesting that models incorporating BGB and SM can improve Rs estimation at regional scale

Risk factors for failure to return to the pre-fracture place of residence after hip fracture: a prospective longitudinal study of 444 patients

Introduction: Long-term place of residence after hip fracture is not often described in literature. The goal of this study was to identify risk factors, known at admission, for failure to return to the pre-fracture place of residence of hip fracture patients in the Wrst year after a hip fracture. Methods: This is a prospective longitudinal study of 444 consecutive admissions of hip fracture patients aged ≥65 years. Place of residence prior to admission, at discharge, after 3 and 12 months was registered. Patients admitted from a nursing home (n = 49) were excluded from statistical analysis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed, using age, gender, presence of a partner, ASAscore, dementia, anaemia at admission, type of fracture, pre-fracture level of mobility and level of activities of daily living (ADL) as possible risk factors. Results: Two hundred eighty-nine patients lived in their own home, 31.8% returned at discharge, 72.9% at 3 months and 72.8% at 12 months. Age, absence of a partner, dementia, and a lower pre-fracture level of ADL or mobility were independent contributors to failure to return to their own home at discharge, 3 or 12 months. 106 patients lived in a residential home; 33.3% returned at discharge, 68.4% at 3 months and 64.4% at 12 months. Age was an independent contributor to failure to return to a residential home. Conclusions: Age, dementia and a lower pre-fracture level of ADL were the main signiWcant risk factors for failure to return to the pre-fracture residence. As the 3- and 12-month return-rates were similar, 3-month follow-up might be used as an endpoint in future research

Unmet need and psychological distress predict emergency department visits in community-dwelling elderly women: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Unmet need to perform activities of daily living (ADL) is associated with increased use of urgent health services by the elderly. However, the reported associations may be confounded by psychological distress. We examine the independent effects of unmet need and psychological distress upon emergency department (ED) visits.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a prospective study of randomly selected community-dwelling adults aged ≥ 75. We report here the results for women only (n = 530). In-person interviews collected data on self-reported unmet need and the 14-item <it>l'Indice de détresse psychologique de Santé Québec </it>psychological distress scale. ED visits were identified from an administrative database. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of any ED visit in the 6 months following the baseline interview.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In multivariable analysis, unmet need in instrumental ADL was associated with subsequent ED visits (odds ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-2.41), as was psychological distress (odds rate = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.67). The magnitude of the association between unmet need and ED visits was overestimated in statistical models that did not adjust for psychological distress.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Both unmet need and psychological distress were independent predictors of ED visits. Future investigations of unmet need and health services utilization should include psychological distress to control for confounding and improve the internal validity of statistical models.</p