Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention

Association of eGFR-Related Loci Identified by GWAS with Incident CKD and ESRD

Family studies suggest a genetic component to the etiology of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end stage renal disease (ESRD). Previously, we identified 16 loci for eGFR in genome-wide association studies, but the associations of these single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for incident CKD or ESRD are unknown. We thus investigated the association of these loci with incident CKD in 26,308 individuals of European ancestry free of CKD at baseline drawn from eight population-based cohorts followed for a median of 7.2 years (including 2,122 incident CKD cases defined as eGFR <60ml/min/1.73m2 at follow-up) and with ESRD in four case-control studies in subjects of European ancestry (3,775 cases, 4,577 controls). SNPs at 11 of the 16 loci (UMOD, PRKAG2, ANXA9, DAB2, SHROOM3, DACH1, STC1, SLC34A1, ALMS1/NAT8, UBE2Q2, and GCKR) were associated with incident CKD; p-values ranged from p = 4.1e-9 in UMOD to p = 0.03 in GCKR. After adjusting for baseline eGFR, six of these loci remained significantly associated with incident CKD (UMOD, PRKAG2, ANXA9, DAB2, DACH1, and STC1). SNPs in UMOD (OR = 0.92, p = 0.04) and GCKR (OR = 0.93, p = 0.03) were nominally associated with ESRD. In summary, the majority of eGFR-related loci are either associated or show a strong trend towards association with incident CKD, but have modest associations with ESRD in individuals of European descent. Additional work is required to characterize the association of genetic determinants of CKD and ESRD at different stages of disease progression

Association of eGFR-Related Loci Identified by GWAS with Incident CKD and ESRD

Family studies suggest a genetic component to the etiology of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end stage renal disease (ESRD). Previously, we identified 16 loci for eGFR in genome-wide association studies, but the associations of these single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for incident CKD or ESRD are unknown. We thus investigated the association of these loci with incident CKD in 26,308 individuals of European ancestry free of CKD at baseline drawn from eight population-based cohorts followed for a median of 7.2 years (including 2,122 incident CKD cases defined as eGFR <60ml/min/1.73m2 at follow-up) and with ESRD in four case-control studies in subjects of European ancestry (3,775 cases, 4,577 controls). SNPs at 11 of the 16 loci (UMOD, PRKAG2, ANXA9, DAB2, SHROOM3, DACH1, STC1, SLC34A1, ALMS1/NAT8, UBE2Q2, and GCKR) were associated with incident CKD; p-values ranged from p = 4.1e-9 in UMOD to p = 0.03 in GCKR. After adjusting for baseline eGFR, six of these loci remained significantly associated with incident CKD (UMOD, PRKAG2, ANXA9, DAB2, DACH1, and STC1). SNPs in UMOD (OR = 0.92, p = 0.04) and GCKR (OR = 0.93, p = 0.03) were nominally associated with ESRD. In summary, the majority of eGFR-related loci are either associated or show a strong trend towards association with incident CKD, but have modest associations with ESRD in individuals of European descent. Additional work is required to characterize the association of genetic determinants of CKD and ESRD at different stages of disease progression

Early chronic kidney disease: diagnosis, management and models of care

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is prevalent in many countries, and the costs associated with the care of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are estimated to exceed US$1 trillion globally. The clinical and economic rationale for the design of timely and appropriate health system responses to limit the progression of CKD to ESRD is clear. Clinical care might improve if early-stage CKD with risk of progression to ESRD is differentiated from early-stage CKD that is unlikely to advance. The diagnostic tests that are currently used for CKD exhibit key limitations; therefore, additional research is required to increase awareness of the risk factors for CKD progression. Systems modelling can be used to evaluate the impact of different care models on CKD outcomes and costs. The US Indian Health Service has demonstrated that an integrated, system-wide approach can produce notable benefits on cardiovascular and renal health outcomes. Economic and clinical improvements might, therefore, be possible if CKD is reconceptualized as a part of primary care. This Review discusses which early CKD interventions are appropriate, the optimum time to provide clinical care, and the most suitable model of care to adopt

Time domains of the hypoxic ventilatory response in ectothermic vertebrates

Over a decade has passed since Powell et al. (Respir Physiol 112:123–134, 1998) described and defined the time domains of the hypoxic ventilatory response (HVR) in adult mammals. These time domains, however, have yet to receive much attention in other vertebrate groups. The initial, acute HVR of fish, amphibians and reptiles serves to minimize the imbalance between oxygen supply and demand. If the hypoxia is sustained, a suite of secondary adjustments occur giving rise to a more long-term balance (acclimatization) that allows the behaviors of normal life. These secondary responses can change over time as a function of the nature of the stimulus (the pattern and intensity of the hypoxic exposure). To add to the complexity of this process, hypoxia can also lead to metabolic suppression (the hypoxic metabolic response) and the magnitude of this is also time dependent. Unlike the original review of Powell et al. (Respir Physiol 112:123–134, 1998) that only considered the HVR in adult animals, we also consider relevant developmental time points where information is available. Finally, in amphibians and reptiles with incompletely divided hearts the magnitude of the ventilatory response will be modulated by hypoxia-induced changes in intra-cardiac shunting that also improve the match between O2 supply and demand, and these too change in a time-dependent fashion. While the current literature on this topic is reviewed here, it is noted that this area has received little attention. We attempt to redefine time domains in a more ‘holistic’ fashion that better accommodates research on ectotherms. If we are to distinguish between the genetic, developmental and environmental influences underlying the various ventilatory responses to hypoxia, however, we must design future experiments with time domains in mind