Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

Roy-Steiner equations for pion-nucleon scattering

Starting from hyperbolic dispersion relations, we derive a closed system of Roy-Steiner equations for pion-nucleon scattering that respects analyticity, unitarity, and crossing symmetry. We work out analytically all kernel functions and unitarity relations required for the lowest partial waves. In order to suppress the dependence on the high-energy regime we also consider once- and twice-subtracted versions of the equations, where we identify the subtraction constants with subthreshold parameters. Assuming Mandelstam analyticity we determine the maximal range of validity of these equations. As a first step towards the solution of the full system we cast the equations for the $\pi\pi\to\bar NN$ partial waves into the form of a Muskhelishvili-Omn\`es problem with finite matching point, which we solve numerically in the single-channel approximation. We investigate in detail the role of individual contributions to our solutions and discuss some consequences for the spectral functions of the nucleon electromagnetic form factors.Comment: 106 pages, 18 figures; version published in JHE

CDK19 is disrupted in a female patient with bilateral congenital retinal folds, microcephaly and mild mental retardation

Microcephaly, mental retardation and congenital retinal folds along with other systemic features have previously been reported as a separate clinical entity. The sporadic nature of the syndrome and lack of clear inheritance patterns pointed to a genetic heterogeneity. Here, we report a genetic analysis of a female patient with microcephaly, congenital bilateral falciform retinal folds, nystagmus, and mental retardation. Karyotyping revealed a de novo pericentric inversion in chromosome 6 with breakpoints in 6p12.1 and 6q21. Fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis narrowed down the region around the breakpoints, and the breakpoint at 6q21 was found to disrupt the CDK19 gene. CDK19 was found to be expressed in a diverse range of tissues including fetal eye and fetal brain. Quantitative PCR of the CDK19 transcript from Epstein–Barr virus-transformed lymphoblastoid cell lines of the patient revealed ~50% reduction in the transcript (p = 0.02), suggesting haploinsufficiency of the gene. cdk8, the closest orthologue of human CDK19 in Drosophila has been shown to play a major role in eye development. Conditional knock-down of Drosophila cdk8 in multiple dendrite (md) neurons resulted in 35% reduced dendritic branching and altered morphology of the dendritic arbour, which appeared to be due in part to a loss of small higher order branches. In addition, Cdk8 mutant md neurons showed diminished dendritic fields revealing an important role of the CDK19 orthologue in the developing nervous system of Drosophila. This is the first time the CDK19 gene, a component of the mediator co-activator complex, has been linked to a human disease

Relationships between TGFβ Proteins and Oxygen Concentrations Inside the First Trimester Human Gestational Sac

In early pregnancy, the O2 gradient between the maternal circulation and the gestational sac tissues modulates trophoblast biological functions. The aim was to evaluate if placental partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) modulates in vivo synthesis of specific placental proteins inside the first trimester gestational sac. Matched samples of peripheral venous blood, blood from the placental bed (PB), coelomic fluid (CF) and placental tissue were obtained in 37 normal pregnancies at 6–12 weeks gestation. PaO2 was measured in PB and CF using an IRMA blood gas monitor. Inhibin A, activin A, sEng, PlGF, sFlt-1 and free VEGF concentrations were measured in all samples. HSP 70 was measured in placental extracts. ANOVA showed ∼60% increase in PB PaO2 (P = 0.02) between after 10 weeks gestation. Unpaired Student's T-test between two groups (6–9 weeks vs 9–12 weeks) shows a significant increase in MS Activin A (P = 0.001), CF activin A (P<0.001), MS P1GF (P = 0.001), CF PlGF (P<0.001), MS sFLT-1 (P = 0.03), CF sFLT-1 (P = 0.01), HSP 70 in placental extracts (P = 0.04) and a significant decrease in PB inhibin A levels (P<0.001) and PB sFLT-1 (P = 0.02) . Multiple correlation analysis showed a significant negative correlation between PB inhibin A levels and gestation (r = −0.45, P<0.05) and PB PaO2 (r = −0.5, P = 0.008) and also between sFLT-1 and PB PaO2 (P = 0.03). There was a positive correlation (P<0.01) between PlGF, sEng and VEGF levels in the placental extracts. Our results indicate a direct relationship in the early intrauterine PaO2 in vivo and inhibin A and sFLT-1 concentrations confirming our hypothesis that specific placental proteins are regulated by intrauterine O2 tension

Assessment of Metabolome Annotation Quality: A Method for Evaluating the False Discovery Rate of Elemental Composition Searches

BACKGROUND: In metabolomics researches using mass spectrometry (MS), systematic searching of high-resolution mass data against compound databases is often the first step of metabolite annotation to determine elemental compositions possessing similar theoretical mass numbers. However, incorrect hits derived from errors in mass analyses will be included in the results of elemental composition searches. To assess the quality of peak annotation information, a novel methodology for false discovery rates (FDR) evaluation is presented in this study. Based on the FDR analyses, several aspects of an elemental composition search, including setting a threshold, estimating FDR, and the types of elemental composition databases most reliable for searching are discussed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The FDR can be determined from one measured value (i.e., the hit rate for search queries) and four parameters determined by Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that relatively high FDR values (30-50%) were obtained when searching time-of-flight (TOF)/MS data using the KNApSAcK and KEGG databases. In addition, searches against large all-in-one databases (e.g., PubChem) always produced unacceptable results (FDR >70%). The estimated FDRs suggest that the quality of search results can be improved not only by performing more accurate mass analysis but also by modifying the properties of the compound database. A theoretical analysis indicates that FDR could be improved by using compound database with smaller but higher completeness entries. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: High accuracy mass analysis, such as Fourier transform (FT)-MS, is needed for reliable annotation (FDR <10%). In addition, a small, customized compound database is preferable for high-quality annotation of metabolome data

Vasodilator factors in the systemic and local adaptations to pregnancy

We postulate that an orchestrated network composed of various vasodilatory systems participates in the systemic and local hemodynamic adaptations in pregnancy. The temporal patterns of increase in the circulating and urinary levels of five vasodilator factors/systems, prostacyclin, nitric oxide, kallikrein, angiotensin-(1–7) and VEGF, in normal pregnant women and animals, as well as the changes observed in preeclamptic pregnancies support their functional role in maintaining normotension by opposing the vasoconstrictor systems. In addition, the expression of these vasodilators in the different trophoblastic subtypes in various species supports their role in the transformation of the uterine arteries. Moreover, their expression in the fetal endothelium and in the syncytiotrophoblast in humans, rats and guinea-pigs, favour their participation in maintaining the uteroplacental circulation. The findings that sustain the functional associations of the various vasodilators, and their participation by endocrine, paracrine and autocrine regulation of the systemic and local vasoactive changes of pregnancy are abundant and compelling. However, further elucidation of the role of the various players is hampered by methodological problems. Among these difficulties is the complexity of the interactions between the different factors, the likelihood that experimental alterations induced in one system may be compensated by the other players of the network, and the possibility that data obtained by manipulating single factors in vitro or in animal studies may be difficult to translate to the human. In addition, the impossibility of sampling the uteroplacental interface along normal pregnancy precludes obtaining longitudinal profiles of the various players. Nevertheless, the possibility of improving maternal blood pressure regulation, trophoblast invasion and uteroplacental flow by enhancing vasodilation (e.g. L-arginine, NO donors, VEGF transfection) deserves unravelling the intricate association of vasoactive factors and the systemic and local adaptations to pregnancy

Electronic structure, linear, nonlinear optical susceptibilities and birefringence of CuInX2 (X = S, Se, Te) chalcopyrite-structure compounds

The electronic structure, linear and nonlinear optical properties have been calculated for CuInX2 (X=S, Se, Te) chalcopyrite-structure single crystals using the state-of-the-art full potential linear augmented plane wave (FP-LAPW) method. We present results for band structure, density of states, and imaginary part of the frequency-dependent linear and nonlinear optical susceptibilities. We find that these crystals are semiconductors with direct band gaps. We have calculated the birefringence of these crystals. The birefringence is negative for CuInS2 and CuInSe2 while it is positive for CuInTe2 in agreement with the experimental data. Calculations are reported for the frequency-dependent complex second-order non-linear optical susceptibilities . The intra-band and inter-band contributions to the second harmonic generation increase when we replace S by Se and decrease when we replace Se by Te. We find that smaller energy band gap compounds have larger values of in agreement with the experimental data and previous theoretical calculations.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figure

A Low T Regulatory Cell Response May Contribute to Both Viral Control and Generalized Immune Activation in HIV Controllers

HIV-infected individuals maintaining undetectable viremia in the absence of therapy (HIV controllers) often maintain high HIV-specific T cell responses, which has spurred the development of vaccines eliciting HIV-specific T cell responses. However, controllers also often have abnormally high T cell activation levels, potentially contributing to T cell dysfunction, CD4+ T cell depletion, and non-AIDS morbidity. We hypothesized that a weak T regulatory cell (Treg) response might contribute to the control of viral replication in HIV controllers, but might also contribute to generalized immune activation, contributing to CD4+ T cell loss. To address these hypotheses, we measured frequencies of activated (CD38+ HLA-DR+), regulatory (CD4+CD25+CD127dim), HIV-specific, and CMV-specific T cells among HIV controllers and 3 control populations: HIV-infected individuals with treatment-mediated viral suppression (ART-suppressed), untreated HIV-infected “non-controllers” with high levels of viremia, and HIV-uninfected individuals. Despite abnormally high T cell activation levels, controllers had lower Treg frequencies than HIV-uninfected controls (P = 0.014). Supporting the propensity for an unusually low Treg response to viral infection in HIV controllers, we observed unusually high CMV-specific CD4+ T cell frequencies and a strong correlation between HIV-specific CD4+ T cell responses and generalized CD8+ T cell activation levels in HIV controllers (P≤0.001). These data support a model in which low frequencies of Tregs in HIV controllers may contribute to an effective adaptive immune response, but may also contribute to generalized immune activation, potentially contributing to CD4 depletion