The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas

Climate change is already affecting species and their distributions. Distributional range changes have occurred and are projected to intensify for many widespread plants and animals, creating associated risks to many ecosystems. Here, we estimate the climate change-related risks to the species in globally significant biodiversity conservation areas over a range of climate scenarios, assessing their value as climate refugia. In particular, we quantify the aggregated benefit of countries’ emission reduction pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement), and also of further constraining global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, against an unmitigated scenario of 4.5 °C warming. We also quantify the contribution that can be made by using smart spatial conservation planning to facilitate some levels of autonomous (i.e. natural) adaptation to climate change by dispersal. We find that without mitigation, on average 33% of each conservation area can act as climate refugium (or 18% if species are unable to disperse), whereas if warming is constrained to 2 °C, the average area of climate refuges doubles to 67% of each conservation area (or, without dispersal, more than doubles to 56% of each area). If the country pledges are fulfilled, an intermediate estimate of 47–52% (or 31–38%, without dispersal) is obtained. We conclude that the Nationally Determined Contributions alone have important but limited benefits for biodiversity conservation, with larger benefits accruing if warming is constrained to 2 °C. Greater benefits would result if warming was constrained to well below 2 °C as set out in the Paris Agreement

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

The reasons for concern framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change. We review the framework's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary climate change metrics to global mean temperature change and better account for possible changes in social and ecological system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios of future climatic and societal conditions

An approach for the identification of exemplar sites for scaling up targeted field observations of benthic biogeochemistry in heterogeneous environments

Continental shelf sediments are globally important for biogeochemical activity. Quantification of shelf-scale stocks and fluxes of carbon and nutrients requires the extrapolation of observations made at limited points in space and time. The procedure for selecting exemplar sites to form the basis of this up-scaling is discussed in relation to a UK-funded research programme investigating biogeochemistry in shelf seas. A three-step selection process is proposed in which (1) a target area representative of UK shelf sediment heterogeneity is selected, (2) the target area is assessed for spatial heterogeneity in sediment and habitat type, bed and water column structure and hydrodynamic forcing, and (3) study sites are selected within this target area encompassing the range of spatial heterogeneity required to address key scientific questions regarding shelf scale biogeochemistry, and minimise confounding variables. This led to the selection of four sites within the Celtic Sea that are significantly different in terms of their sediment, bed structure, and macrofaunal, meiofaunal and microbial community structures and diversity, but have minimal variations in water depth, tidal and wave magnitudes and directions, temperature and salinity. They form the basis of a research cruise programme of observation, sampling and experimentation encompassing the spring bloom cycle. Typical variation in key biogeochemical, sediment, biological and hydrodynamic parameters over a pre to post bloom period are presented, with a discussion of anthropogenic influences in the region. This methodology ensures the best likelihood of site-specific work being useful for up-scaling activities, increasing our understanding of benthic biogeochemistry at the UK-shelf scale

Global protected area expansion is compromised by projected land-use and parochialism

Peer reviewe

Perspectives on the use of transcriptomics to advance biofuels

As a field within the energy research sector, bioenergy is continuously expanding. Although much has been achieved and the yields of both ethanol and butanol have been improved, many avenues of research to further increase these yields still remain. This review covers current research related with transcriptomics and the application of this high-throughput analytical tool to engineer both microbes and plants with the penultimate goal being better biofuel production and yields. The initial focus is given to the responses of fermentative microbes during the fermentative production of acids, such as butyric acid, and solvents, including ethanol and butanol. As plants offer the greatest natural renewable source of fermentable sugars within the form of lignocellulose, the second focus area is the transcriptional responses of microbes when exposed to plant hydrolysates and lignin-related compounds. This is of particular importance as the acid/base hydrolysis methods commonly employed to make the plant-based cellulose available for enzymatic hydrolysis to sugars also generates significant amounts of lignin-derivatives that are inhibitory to fermentative bacteria and microbes. The article then transitions to transcriptional analyses of lignin-degrading organisms, such as Phanerochaete chrysosporium, as an alternative to acid/base hydrolysis. The final portion of this article will discuss recent transcriptome analyses of plants and, in particular, the genes involved in lignin production. The rationale behind these studies is to eventually reduce the lignin content present within these plants and, consequently, the amount of inhibitors generated during the acid/base hydrolysis of the lignocelluloses. All four of these topics represent key areas where transcriptomic research is currently being conducted to identify microbial genes and their responses to products and inhibitors as well as those related with lignin degradation/formation.clos

Bird and bat species' global vulnerability to collision mortality at wind farms revealed through a trait-based assessment

Mitigation of anthropogenic climate change involves deployments of renewable energy worldwide, including wind farms, which can pose a significant collision risk to volant animals. Most studies into the collision risk between species and wind turbines, however, have taken place in industrialized countries. Potential effects for many locations and species therefore remain unclear. To redress this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review of recorded collisions between birds and bats and wind turbines within developed countries. We related collision rate to species-level traits and turbine characteristics to quantify the potential vulnerability of 9538 bird and 888 bat species globally. Avian collision rate was affected by migratory strategy, dispersal distance and habitat associations, and bat collision rates were influenced by dispersal distance. For birds and bats, larger turbine capacity (megawatts) increased collision rates; however, deploying a smaller number of large turbines with greater energy output reduced total collision risk per unit energy output, although bat mortality increased again with the largest turbines. Areas with high concentrations of vulnerable species were also identified, including migration corridors. Our results can therefore guide wind farm design and location to reduce the risk of large-scale animal mortality. This is the first quantitative global assessment of the relative collision vulnerability of species groups with wind turbines, providing valuable guidance for minimizing potentially serious negative impacts on biodiversity