Mathematical modelling of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in India: Required duration of mass drug administration and post-treatment level of infection indicators

Background: India has made great progress towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis. By 2015, most endemic districts had completed at least five annual rounds of mass drug administration (MDA). The next challenge is to determine when MDA can be stopped. We performed a simulation study with the individual-based model LYMFASIM to help clarify this. Methods: We used a model-variant for Indian settings. We considered different hypotheses on detectability of antigenaemia (Ag) in relation to underlying adult worm burden, choosing the most likely hypothesis by comparing the model predicted association between community-level microfilaraemia (Mf) and antigenaemia (Ag) prevalence levels to observed data (collated from literature). Next, we estimated how long MDA must be continued in order to achieve elimination in different transmission settings and what Mf and Ag prevalence may still remain 1 year after the last required MDA round. The robustness of key-outcomes was assessed in a sensitivity analysis. Results: Our model matched observed data qualitatively well when we assumed an Ag detection rate of 50 % for single worm infections, which increases with the number of adult worms (modelled by relating detection to the presence of female worms). The required duration of annual MDA increased with higher baseline endemicity and lower coverage (varying between 2 and 12 rounds), while the remaining residual infection 1 year after the last required treatment declined with transmission intensity. For low and high transmission settings, the median residual infection levels were 1.0 % and 0.4 % (Mf prevalence in the 5+ population), and 3.5 % and 2.0 % (Ag prevalence in 6-7 year-old children). Conclusion: To achieve elimination in high transmission settings, MDA must be continued longer and infection levels must be reduced to lower levels than in low-endemic communities. Although our simulations were for Indian settings, qualitatively similar patterns are also expected in other areas. This should be taken into account in decision algorithms to define whether MDA can be interrupted. Transmission assessment surveys should ideally be targeted to communities with the highest pre-control transmission levels, to minimize the risk of programme failure

Genome-wide analysis of ivermectin response by Onchocerca volvulus reveals that genetic drift and soft selective sweeps contribute to loss of drug sensitivity

Treatment of onchocerciasis using mass ivermectin administration has reduced morbidity and transmission throughout Africa and Central/South America. Mass drug administration is likely to exert selection pressure on parasites, and phenotypic and genetic changes in several Onchocerca volvulus populations from Cameroon and Ghana-exposed to more than a decade of regular ivermectin treatment-have raised concern that sub-optimal responses to ivermectin's anti-fecundity effect are becoming more frequent and may spread.Pooled next generation sequencing (Pool-seq) was used to characterise genetic diversity within and between 108 adult female worms differing in ivermectin treatment history and response. Genome-wide analyses revealed genetic variation that significantly differentiated good responder (GR) and sub-optimal responder (SOR) parasites. These variants were not randomly distributed but clustered in ~31 quantitative trait loci (QTLs), with little overlap in putative QTL position and gene content between the two countries. Published candidate ivermectin SOR genes were largely absent in these regions; QTLs differentiating GR and SOR worms were enriched for genes in molecular pathways associated with neurotransmission, development, and stress responses. Finally, single worm genotyping demonstrated that geographic isolation and genetic change over time (in the presence of drug exposure) had a significantly greater role in shaping genetic diversity than the evolution of SOR.This study is one of the first genome-wide association analyses in a parasitic nematode, and provides insight into the genomics of ivermectin response and population structure of O. volvulus. We argue that ivermectin response is a polygenically-determined quantitative trait (QT) whereby identical or related molecular pathways but not necessarily individual genes are likely to determine the extent of ivermectin response in different parasite populations. Furthermore, we propose that genetic drift rather than genetic selection of SOR is the underlying driver of population differentiation, which has significant implications for the emergence and potential spread of SOR within and between these parasite populations

A Research Agenda for Helminth Diseases of Humans: Modelling for Control and Elimination

Mathematical modelling of helminth infections has the potential to inform policy and guide research for the control and elimination of human helminthiases. However, this potential, unlike in other parasitic and infectious diseases, has yet to be realised. To place contemporary efforts in a historical context, a summary of the development of mathematical models for helminthiases is presented. These efforts are discussed according to the role that models can play in furthering our understanding of parasite population biology and transmission dynamics, and the effect on such dynamics of control interventions, as well as in enabling estimation of directly unobservable parameters, exploration of transmission breakpoints, and investigation of evolutionary outcomes of control. The Disease Reference Group on Helminth Infections (DRG4), established in 2009 by the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), was given the mandate to review helminthiases research and identify research priorities and gaps. A research and development agenda for helminthiasis modelling is proposed based on identified gaps that need to be addressed for models to become useful decision tools that can support research and control operations effectively. This agenda includes the use of models to estimate the impact of large-scale interventions on infection incidence; the design of sampling protocols for the monitoring and evaluation of integrated control programmes; the modelling of co-infections; the investigation of the dynamical relationship between infection and morbidity indicators; the improvement of analytical methods for the quantification of anthelmintic efficacy and resistance; the determination of programme endpoints; the linking of dynamical helminth models with helminth geostatistical mapping; and the investigation of the impact of climate change on human helminthiases. It is concluded that modelling should be embedded in helminth research, and in the planning, evaluation, and surveillance of interventions from the outset. Modellers should be essential members of interdisciplinary teams, propitiating a continuous dialogue with end users and stakeholders to reflect public health needs in the terrain, discuss the scope and limitations of models, and update biological assumptions and model outputs regularly. It is highlighted that to reach these goals, a collaborative framework must be developed for the collation, annotation, and sharing of databases from large-scale anthelmintic control programmes, and that helminth modellers should join efforts to tackle key questions in helminth epidemiology and control through the sharing of such databases, and by using diverse, yet complementary, modelling approaches

Identification of PLCL1 Gene for Hip Bone Size Variation in Females in a Genome-Wide Association Study

Osteoporosis, the most prevalent metabolic bone disease among older people, increases risk for low trauma hip fractures (HF) that are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Hip bone size (BS) has been identified as one of the key measurable risk factors for HF. Although hip BS is highly genetically determined, genetic factors underlying the trait are still poorly defined. Here, we performed the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) of hip BS interrogating ∼380,000 SNPs on the Affymetrix platform in 1,000 homogeneous unrelated Caucasian subjects, including 501 females and 499 males. We identified a gene, PLCL1 (phospholipase c-like 1), that had four SNPs associated with hip BS at, or approaching, a genome-wide significance level in our female subjects; the most significant SNP, rs7595412, achieved a p value of 3.72×10−7. The gene's importance to hip BS was replicated using the Illumina genotyping platform in an independent UK cohort containing 1,216 Caucasian females. Two SNPs of the PLCL1 gene, rs892515 and rs9789480, surrounded by the four SNPs identified in our GWAS, achieved p values of 8.62×10−3 and 2.44×10−3, respectively, for association with hip BS. Imputation analyses on our GWAS and the UK samples further confirmed the replication signals; eight SNPs of the gene achieved combined imputed p values<10−5 in the two samples. The PLCL1 gene's relevance to HF was also observed in a Chinese sample containing 403 females, including 266 with HF and 177 control subjects. A SNP of the PLCL1 gene, rs3771362 that is only ∼0.6 kb apart from the most significant SNP detected in our GWAS (rs7595412), achieved a p value of 7.66×10−3 (odds ratio = 0.26) for association with HF. Additional biological support for the role of PLCL1 in BS comes from previous demonstrations that the PLCL1 protein inhibits IP3 (inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate)-mediated calcium signaling, an important pathway regulating mechanical sensing of bone cells. Our findings suggest that PLCL1 is a novel gene associated with variation in hip BS, and provide new insights into the pathogenesis of HF

Loss of PTEN Is Not Associated with Poor Survival in Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma Patients of the Temozolomide Era

Introduction: Pre-temozolomide studies demonstrated that loss of the tumor suppressor gene PTEN held independent prognostic significance in GBM patients. We investigated whether loss of PTEN predicted shorter survival in the temozolomide era. The role of PTEN in the PI3K/Akt pathway is also reviewed. Methods: Patients with histologically proven newly diagnosed GBM were identified from a retrospective database between 2007 and 2010. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to calculate the independent effects of PTEN expression, age

Prognostic molecular markers with no impact on decision-making: the paradox of gliomas based on a prospective study

This study assessed the prognostic value of several markers involved in gliomagenesis, and compared it with that of other clinical and imaging markers already used. Four-hundred and sixteen adult patients with newly diagnosed glioma were included over a 3-year period and tumour suppressor genes, oncogenes, MGMT and hTERT expressions, losses of heterozygosity, as well as relevant clinical and imaging information were recorded. This prospective study was based on all adult gliomas. Analyses were performed on patient groups selected according to World Health Organization histoprognostic criteria and on the entire cohort. The endpoint was overall survival, estimated by the Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate analysis was followed by multivariate analysis according to a Cox model. p14ARF, p16INK4A and PTEN expressions, and 10p 10q23, 10q26 and 13q LOH for the entire cohort, hTERT expression for high-grade tumours, EGFR for glioblastomas, 10q26 LOH for grade III tumours and anaplastic oligodendrogliomas were found to be correlated with overall survival on univariate analysis and age and grade on multivariate analysis only. This study confirms the prognostic value of several markers. However, the scattering of the values explained by tumour heterogeneity prevents their use in individual decision-making

Density-Dependent Mortality of the Human Host in Onchocerciasis: Relationships between Microfilarial Load and Excess Mortality

Human onchocerciasis (River Blindness) is a parasitic disease leading to visual impairment including blindness. Blindness may lead to premature death, but infection with the parasite itself (Onchocerca volvulus) may also cause excess mortality in sighted individuals. The excess risk of mortality may not be directly (linearly) proportional to the intensity of infection (a measure of how many parasites an individual harbours). We analyze cohort data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa, collected between 1974 and 2001, by fitting a suite of quantitative models (including a ‘null’ model of no relationship between infection intensity and mortality, a (log-) linear function, and two plateauing curves), and choosing the one that is the most statistically adequate. The risk of human mortality initially increases with parasite density but saturates at high densities (following an S-shape curve), and such risk is greater in younger individuals for a given infection intensity. Our results have important repercussions for programmes aiming to control onchocerciasis (in terms of how the benefits of the programme are calculated), for measuring the burden of disease and mortality caused by the infection, and for a better understanding of the processes that govern the density of parasite populations among human hosts

A Research Agenda for Helminth Diseases of Humans: Basic Research and Enabling Technologies to Support Control and Elimination of Helminthiases

Successful and sustainable intervention against human helminthiases depends on optimal utilisation of available control measures and development of new tools and strategies, as well as an understanding of the evolutionary implications of prolonged intervention on parasite populations and those of their hosts and vectors. This will depend largely on updated knowledge of relevant and fundamental parasite biology. There is a need, therefore, to exploit and apply new knowledge and techniques in order to make significant and novel gains in combating helminthiases and supporting the sustainability of current and successful mass drug administration (MDA) programmes. Among the fields of basic research that are likely to yield improved control tools, the Disease Reference Group on Helminth Infections (DRG4) has identified four broad areas that stand out as central to the development of the next generation of helminth control measures: 1) parasite genetics, genomics, and functional genomics; 2) parasite immunology; 3) (vertebrate) host–parasite interactions and immunopathology; and 4) (invertebrate) host–parasite interactions and transmission biology. The DRG4 was established in 2009 by the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR). The Group was given the mandate to undertake a comprehensive review of recent advances in helminthiases research in order to identify notable gaps and highlight priority areas. This paper summarises recent advances and discusses challenges in the investigation of the fundamental biology of those helminth parasites under the DRG4 Group's remit according to the identified priorities, and presents a research and development agenda for basic parasite research and enabling technologies that will help support control and elimination efforts against human helminthiases