Estimating Long-Term Survival of Critically Ill Patients: The PREDICT Model

BACKGROUND: Long-term survival outcome of critically ill patients is important in assessing effectiveness of new treatments and making treatment decisions. We developed a prognostic model for estimation of long-term survival of critically ill patients. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This was a retrospective linked data cohort study involving 11,930 critically ill patients who survived more than 5 days in a university teaching hospital in Western Australia. Older age, male gender, co-morbidities, severe acute illness as measured by Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II predicted mortality, and more days of vasopressor or inotropic support, mechanical ventilation, and hemofiltration within the first 5 days of intensive care unit admission were associated with a worse long-term survival up to 15 years after the onset of critical illness. Among these seven pre-selected predictors, age (explained 50% of the variability of the model, hazard ratio [HR] between 80 and 60 years old = 1.95) and co-morbidity (explained 27% of the variability, HR between Charlson co-morbidity index 5 and 0 = 2.15) were the most important determinants. A nomogram based on the pre-selected predictors is provided to allow estimation of the median survival time and also the 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year survival probabilities for a patient. The discrimination (adjusted c-index = 0.757, 95% confidence interval 0.745-0.769) and calibration of this prognostic model were acceptable. SIGNIFICANCE: Age, gender, co-morbidities, severity of acute illness, and the intensity and duration of intensive care therapy can be used to estimate long-term survival of critically ill patients. Age and co-morbidity are the most important determinants of long-term prognosis of critically ill patients

Plasma protein C levels in immunocompromised septic patients are significantly lower than immunocompetent septic patients: a prospective cohort study

Introduction: Activated Protein C [APC] improves outcome in immunocompetent patients with severe sepsis particularly in those who are perceived to have high mortality risk. Before embarking on a trial of APC administration in immunocompromised septic patients, a preliminary study on plasma levels of protein C in this cohort is essential

Endomicroscopic and transcriptomic analysis of impaired barrier function and malabsorption in environmental enteropathy

Introduction: Environmental enteropathy (EE) is associated with growth failure, micronutrient malabsorption and impaired responses to oral vaccines. We set out to define cellular mechanisms of impaired barrier function in EE and explore protective mechanisms. Methods: We studied 49 adults with environmental enteropathy in Lusaka, Zambia using confocal laser endomicroscopy (CLE); histology, immunohistochemistry and mRNA sequencing of small intestinal biopsies; and correlated these with plasma lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and a zinc uptake test. Results: CLE images (median 134 for each study) showed virtually ubiquitous small intestinal damage. Epithelial defects, imaged by histology and claudin 4 immunostaining, were predominantly seen at the tips of villi and corresponded with leakage imaged in vivo by CLE. In multivariate analysis, circulating log-transformed LPS was correlated with cell shedding events (β = 0.83; P = 0.035) and with serum glucagon-like peptide-2 (β = -0.13; P = 0.007). Zinc uptake from a test dose of 25mg was attenuated in 30/47 (64%) individuals and in multivariate analysis was reduced by HIV, but positively correlated with GLP-2 (β = 2.72; P = 0.03). There was a U-shaped relationship between circulating LPS and villus surface area. Transcriptomic analysis identified 23 differentially expressed genes in severe enteropathy, including protective peptides and proteins. Conclusions: Confocal endomicroscopy, claudin 4 immunostaining and histology identify epithelial defects which are probably sites of bacterial translocation, in the presence of which increased epithelial surface area increases the burden of translocation. GLP 2 and other protective peptides may play an important role in mucosal protection in EE

Results from the national sepsis practice survey: predictions about mortality and morbidity and recommendations for limitation of care orders

Introduction: Critically ill patients and families rely upon physicians to provide estimates of prognosis and recommendations for care. Little is known about patient and clinician factors which influence these predictions. The association between these predictions and recommendations for continued aggressive care is also understudied. Methods: We administered a mail-based survey with simulated clinical vignettes to a random sample of the Critical Care Assembly of the American Thoracic Society. Vignettes represented a patient with septic shock with multi-organ failure with identical APACHE II scores and sepsis-associated organ failures. Vignettes varied by age (50 or 70 years old), body mass index (BMI) (normal or obese) and co-morbidities (none or recently diagnosed stage IIA lung cancer). All subjects received the vignettes with the highest and lowest mortality predictions from pilot testing and two additional, randomly selected vignettes. Respondents estimated outcomes and selected care for each hypothetical patient. Results: Despite identical severity of illness, the range of estimates for hospital mortality (5th to 95th percentile range, 17% to 78%) and for problems with self-care (5th to 95th percentile range, 2% to 74%) was wide. Similar variation was observed when clinical factors (age, BMI, and co-morbidities) were identical. Estimates of hospital mortality and problems with self-care among survivors were significantly higher in vignettes with obese BMIs (4.3% and 5.3% higher, respectively), older age (8.2% and 11.6% higher, respectively), and cancer diagnosis (5.9% and 6.9% higher, respectively). Higher estimates of mortality (adjusted odds ratio 1.29 per 10% increase in predicted mortality), perceived problems with self-care (adjusted odds ratio 1.26 per 10% increase in predicted problems with self-care), and early-stage lung cancer (adjusted odds ratio 5.82) were independently associated with recommendations to limit care. Conclusions: The studied clinical factors were consistently associated with poorer outcome predictions but did not explain the variation in prognoses offered by experienced physicians. These observations raise concern that provided information and the resulting decisions about continued aggressive care may be influenced by individual physician perception. To provide more reliable and accurate estimates of outcomes, tools are needed which incorporate patient characteristics and preferences with physician predictions and practices

Curcumin-rich curry diet and pulmonary function in Asian older adults

10.1371/journal.pone.0051753PLoS ONE71

Whole Genome Expression Array Profiling Highlights Differences in Mucosal Defense Genes in Barrett's Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has become a major concern in Western countries due to rapid rises in incidence coupled with very poor survival rates. One of the key risk factors for the development of this cancer is the presence of Barrett's esophagus (BE), which is believed to form in response to repeated gastro-esophageal reflux. In this study we performed comparative, genome-wide expression profiling (using Illumina whole-genome Beadarrays) on total RNA extracted from esophageal biopsy tissues from individuals with EAC, BE (in the absence of EAC) and those with normal squamous epithelium. We combined these data with publically accessible raw data from three similar studies to investigate key gene and ontology differences between these three tissue states. The results support the deduction that BE is a tissue with enhanced glycoprotein synthesis machinery (DPP4, ATP2A3, AGR2) designed to provide strong mucosal defenses aimed at resisting gastro-esophageal reflux. EAC exhibits the enhanced extracellular matrix remodeling (collagens, IGFBP7, PLAU) effects expected in an aggressive form of cancer, as well as evidence of reduced expression of genes associated with mucosal (MUC6, CA2, TFF1) and xenobiotic (AKR1C2, AKR1B10) defenses. When our results are compared to previous whole-genome expression profiling studies keratin, mucin, annexin and trefoil factor gene groups are the most frequently represented differentially expressed gene families. Eleven genes identified here are also represented in at least 3 other profiling studies. We used these genes to discriminate between squamous epithelium, BE and EAC within the two largest cohorts using a support vector machine leave one out cross validation (LOOCV) analysis. While this method was satisfactory for discriminating squamous epithelium and BE, it demonstrates the need for more detailed investigations into profiling changes between BE and EAC

Auditory temporal resolution of a wild white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris)

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Comparative Physiology A: Neuroethology, Sensory, Neural, and Behavioral Physiology 195 (2009): 375-384, doi:10.1007/s00359-009-0415-x.Adequate temporal resolution is required across taxa to properly utilize amplitude modulated acoustic signals. Among mammals, odontocete marine mammals are considered to have relatively high temporal resolution, which is a selective advantage when processing fast traveling underwater sound. However, multiple methods used to estimate auditory temporal resolution have left comparisons among odontocetes and other mammals somewhat vague. Here we present the estimated auditory temporal resolution of an adult male white-beaked dolphin, (Lagenorhynchus albirostris), using auditory evoked potentials and click stimuli. Ours is the first of such studies performed on a wild dolphin in a capture-and-release scenario. The white-beaked dolphin followed rhythmic clicks up to a rate of approximately 1125-1250 Hz, after which the modulation rate transfer function (MRTF) cut-off steeply. However, 10% of the maximum response was still found at 1450 Hz indicating high temporal resolution. The MRTF was similar in shape and bandwidth to that of other odontocetes. The estimated maximal temporal resolution of white-beaked dolphins and other odontocetes was approximately twice that of pinnipeds and manatees, and more than ten-times faster than humans and gerbils. The exceptionally high temporal resolution abilities of odontocetes are likely due primarily to echolocation capabilities that require rapid processing of acoustic cues.We wish to thank the Danish Natural Science Research Council for major financial support (grant no. 272-05-0395)

Febrile seizures and mechanisms of epileptogenesis: insights from an animal model.

Temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) is the most prevalent type of human epilepsy, yet the causes for its development, and the processes involved, are not known. Most individuals with TLE do not have a family history, suggesting that this limbic epilepsy is a consequence of acquired rather than genetic causes. Among suspected etiologies, febrile seizures have frequently been cited. This is due to the fact that retrospective analyses of adults with TLE have demonstrated a high prevalence (20-->60%) of a history of prolonged febrile seizures during early childhood, suggesting an etiological role for these seizures in the development of TLE. Specifically, neuronal damage induced by febrile seizures has been suggested as a mechanism for the development of mesial temporal sclerosis, the pathological hallmark of TLE. However, the statistical correlation between febrile seizures and TLE does not necessarily indicate a causal relationship. For example, preexisting (genetic or acquired) 'causes' that result independently in febrile seizures and in TLE would also result in tight statistical correlation. For obvious reasons, complex febrile seizures cannot be induced in the human, and studies of their mechanisms and of their consequences on brain molecules and circuits are severely limited. Therefore, an animal model was designed to study these seizures. The model reproduces the fundamental key elements of the human condition: the age specificity, the physiological temperatures seen in fevers of children, the length of the seizures and their lack of immediate morbidity. Neuroanatomical, molecular and functional methods have been used in this model to determine the consequences of prolonged febrile seizures on the survival and integrity of neurons, and on hyperexcitability in the hippocampal-limbic network. Experimental prolonged febrile seizures did not lead to death of any of the seizure-vulnerable populations in hippocampus, and the rate of neurogenesis was also unchanged. Neuronal function was altered sufficiently to promote synaptic reorganization of granule cells, and transient and long-term alterations in the expression of specific genes were observed. The contribution of these consequences of febrile seizures to the epileptogenic process is discussed